There’s now a strong chance schools will NOT go back full time in September

[Redolent]

Schools have been set up to fail by the careless summer relaxation of lockdown.

• No mandatory face masks in shops and indoors. The UK is an international outlier here.
• Reduction of 2m rule to 1m which is basically the normal distance people talk to each other. Factor in alcohol and social distancing is now non-existent in pubs and restaurants. Oh, and nobody cares about the 1m ‘plus’ bit. They just hear 1m.
• Reopening of too many indoor venues at once, including things like places of worship which are high-risk for transmission anyway.
• Bypassing the idea of social bubbles straight to unlimited two household meet-ups indoors. You can visit different pubs/restaurants over the weekend and go inside multiple households throughout the week. Zero attempt to break chain of transmission.
• No functioning app and poor test/trace system (see SAGE’s Stephen Reicher on the latter)
• ‘Pausing’ of shielding in August

All of the above will led to a rise in cases.

Meanwhile:

• Shit is absolutely hitting the fan in the United States, India, Pakistan, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, other parts of the Middle East. Our quarantine policy is so terrible it may well be scrapped anyway. Will see more imported cases.
• The weather will turn cooler and allow perfect conditions for the virus to thrive

So by end of August/early September, our cases and hospitalizations will be rising significantly. Flu season will kick in. The NHS is already groaning under the weight of its huge 10million waiting list - another shut down cannot happen. A full time return to school under those circumstances will be untenable. Blended learning will see a turn as will part-time schooling.

YABU: we need to get the economy going in all its forms as quickly as possible, and schools will also go back with no issues.
YANBU: you cannot have things both ways. This summer relaxation is setting us up for an autumn/winter spike and more part-time schooling.

Babesinthewud I was responding to this:

I think it’s safe to say that anyone under the age of day 55 that’s healthy and not overweight will absolutely fine

Same question to you regarding otherwise you get healthy adults with children- tough shit for them... Should they just suck it up?
I have not implied this anywhere. It is a really shit situation. I don’t think I t helps to present it as a “teachers v parents” battle, or to pretend that there wouldn’t be a real risk to staff in schools, however much we would like that to be true.

@strugglingwithdeciding

We cant stay in forever though And what about peoples jobs and homes being at risk , do you not think that kay have negative effects also Re : 1 m plus , yes pubs will have to follow this and its nit pubs like normal by any stretch

Mandatory face masks in indoor public places.

Effective quarantine procedures.

A functioning app and significantly improved test and trace.

Caution over opening places of worship and other high risk settings.

None of these involves staying in forever.

@underneaththeash no i think they think there is a magic money tree
And they don't think about those who work in these sectors and how they will be struggling and maybe loose their houses, businesses etc

For those wondering about heat or otherwise: look up studies of other coronaviruses. It seems that it is relative humidity that makes a difference to longevity and transmission, and that if colder air is artificially heated indoors (poss. also cooled, but think Winter), this will play around with relative humidity much more than a circulation of general fresh air. It seems plausible to me.

Totally unnecessary unless they are expecting further closures.

Further closures are a given. It will only take about 6 children out of a bubble of 30 to pick up a covid infection outside of school for the bubble to lose the equivalent of a term. And on top of that you’ll have children self-isolating until they get their test results back and vulnerable/extremely vulnerable children who may still be at home.

[quote strugglingwithdeciding]@underneaththeash no i think they think there is a magic money tree
And they don't think about those who work in these sectors and how they will be struggling and maybe loose their houses, businesses etc[/quote]
What do you think has happened to some of the restaurants and bars that reopened in Texas?

Many have closed again. Of their own accord. Because no one wants to browse the gift shop if the museum is on fire...

Consumer confidence is key.

**Unfortunately the UK is once again an outlier in not tracking recovered cases. So we have no idea how many people who have had mild covid have actually fully recovered, and how many are suffering from impaired lung function three months on. Coronavirus is a multisystem disorder and we’re finding out more about its medium and long term effects every day. Happy to dig out some papers for you.

I’m lucky to be in a position not to take the risk of ending up with a shitty quality of life, being on a dialysis machine, having neurological damage, or suffering from breathlessness for months at least, and happy to wait it out. Not ‘forever’. I believe by the end of the year we’ll have a reliable combination of drugs that prevents progression from mild to moderate illness.

That’s my own risk assessment. I think everyone is free to make their own —— to an extent. Because society is a long more interdependent than we realise**

@Redolant

I don’t think the average person will have a shitty quality of life, need dialysis or have neurological damage from covid. (Breathlessness and feeling shit perhaps!)

But I appreciate your viewpoint and if you are able to work without having to come in to contact with the masses then that’s fair enough to want to continue this

Babesinthewud I was responding to this:

**I think it’s safe to say that anyone under the age of day 55 that’s healthy and not overweight will absolutely fine

Same question to you regarding otherwise you get healthy adults with children- tough shit for them... Should they just suck it up**

I have not implied this anywhere. It is a really shit situation. I don’t think I t helps to present it as a “teachers v parents” battle, or to pretend that there wouldn’t be a real risk to staff in schools, however much we would like that to be true**

@HipTightOnions

I was suggesting children need to go back to school. You basically said “sod all teachers over 55 then and those that are overweight and there are plenty of them?” (Something to that affect) Implying there would be negative implications for teachers if schools are open.

Yes but there would but there’s risk when you go to the shops, supermarket, chemist, bank whatever...

If people (teachers) are that worried then they’ll probably have to leave the profession. If they feel that strongly about it. No one could stop them doing that and if that’s the only option they feel they have then fair enough

Yes but there would but there’s risk when you go to the shops, supermarket, chemist, bank whatever

Ridiculous comparison, and all those place have social distancing measure to protect their staff.

@echt

And you’re suggesting schools don’t?....

And you’re suggesting schools don’t?

Certainly not. My response was to the daft comparison between schools and those other places. Your throwaway everything carries risks was thoughtless. If schools weren't a special case, they'd be open to all right now.

.

Yes but there would but there’s risk when you go to the shops, supermarket, chemist, bank whatever

Being in a room with people who have the virus for 6 hours a day is very different to passing someone with in a supermarket for 6 seconds. All the science is pointing to someone shedding virus infecting those around them in about 50 minutes.

And you’re suggesting schools don’t?

Schools cannot socially distance 1000 young people in groups of 30. There isn’t the space. Many classrooms will not allow a teacher to stand 2 metres away from the class. We have been told by the Government that we don’t need PPE (so they won’t be paying for it). School budgets will struggle to pay for soap and hand sanitizer. Some of us are over 50, over Wright, diabetic, have heart problems, asthma etc. There will be teacher deaths if we go back too early, that much is very clear.

@echt

How is it a daft comparison exactly? What makes teachers so susceptible that people in order areas aren’t?

What about the supermarket staff?
The bank workers
The shop workers

Pretty much all work places are set to open? Why are teachers at more risk than a supermarket worker?

Teachers are no more at risk than the endless offer jobs 🙄

@Howaboutanewname

Ok so what about a small pharmacy. Sick people in and out all day every day. Touching items, handing over money etc.

Teachers could always buy their own masks at £2.99 from aldi? If they’re that concerned?

I assume the school will provide hand sanitizer and the like. If the councils can’t use the funds to supply extra hand washing facilities then that’s a separate problem altogether.

What about the supermarket staff? The bank workers The shop workers

They are afforded protection. As I said earlier.

Ok so what about a small pharmacy. Sick people in and out all day every day. Touching items, handing over money etc

Never seen one that does not give protection to staff in terms of PPE and social distancing.

Teachers are no more at risk than the endless offer jobs

No idea what that means.

@loulouljh

Why are teachers at any more risk than any other worker? the supermarket workers for example? They are not!!!! Everyone has some risk. We have to live with that.

Because supermarket workers don't have children sitting next to them who sneeze on their books leaving snot everywhere?

[quote Babesinthewud]@Howaboutanewname

Ok so what about a small pharmacy. Sick people in and out all day every day. Touching items, handing over money etc.

Teachers could always buy their own masks at £2.99 from aldi? If they’re that concerned?

I assume the school will provide hand sanitizer and the like. If the councils can’t use the funds to supply extra hand washing facilities then that’s a separate problem altogether.[/quote]
They can buy the masks but what for ? They aren't allowed to wear them.

As for hand sanitiser, I'm hearing from teacher friends that they are having to buy their own so the children can wash their hands as they aren't being supplied with it when it runs out.

I'm sorry for you lot in Britain, but what a strange assortment of countries you put in your list, OP. Saudia Arabia is way down in deaths per million people and Mexico, where I live is No 22 on the list today. We have a problem with the virus and it is being dealt with, a lot better than in the UK, I might add. The UK is fourth, way ahead of the USA, who have also been astoundingly incompetent in managing the disease.

I do hope you are all able to get back to normal very soon, but don't feel sorry for Mexico, we have excellent authorities doing there utmost to keep us informed and keep us safe.

Right little Ray of sunshine, aren't you OP.

My school is totally assuming we are back full time in Sept. I think the country will do this despite the transmission risks, because if we leave kids at home, we have this huge huge risk of a mental health crisis (and educational crisis) for a whole generation of kids.

@OhTheRoses it isn’t just the risk of death from Coronavirus that is worrying the school staff I know. Healthy young people may bounce back quickly from the virus or they can have symptoms for weeks and weeks. There is a thread on here where people who were ill with Coronavirus but not hospitalised with it are reporting symptoms 2-3 months down the line including extreme fatigue and breathing difficulties. We don’t yet know the long term impact of this on lungs etc. This is what concerns me.

School has always been high risk for picking up bugs and viruses but this is different since we can’t get a vaccine for it yet unlike the flu injection and we dint know how it will affect us individually unlike many of the viruses we have already been exposed to in school.

If the Telegraph reports are true I hope the unions grow a pair and fight for the safety of children and staff. Either everyone observes social distancing, masks etc or no one does.

It's going to be a long hot summer.

@Babesinthewud my small local pharmacy is only allowing 2 people in at a time. They have to antibac when they enter and leave. The staff have a Perspex screen surrounding the till. They wear gloves and a mask and are not doing consultations with people who come in.

In my school at the moment we have 15 in a class plus 2 adults. My head said we need to sit next to children to hear them read and move around the room to look at their work whilst teaching so inevitably you are getting closer than 2m. We are inside the room with them for 6 hours a day unless we can do part of a lesson or eat lunch outside. We have antibac gel and soap and have to keep our windows open.

These 2 places of work therefore are very different. Not everyone coming into the pharmacy will be sick as lots of people come to collect regular prescriptions. We are still having children in the classroom who have coughs and colds as once they’ve had a negative Coronavirus test they can come back so still exposed to germs there.

No environment will ever be 100% safe but the safety of staff as well as children must be considered in schools. I find it baffling that the DFE guidance says temperatures if children and staff don’t need to be checked as they’re not a reliable indicator of the virus but it’s one of the indicators they use at airports.

Just to add some actual experience of lesson under social distancing.

I’ve been in school this week for Yr10 Face to Face. We have a large, rambling school building that has a block from just about every decade. But almost all corridors are fairly wide. You could pass at 1m distance if you needed to. The classrooms measure at 2m fit about 15 kids in. 1m could get about 20 kids in.

So it is possible to have some back at a social distance.

BUT it would require parents to support school in enforcing social distance AND we would need to heavily stagger start, end, break, lunch.

Despite having a very clear presentation at the start of the day and a letter sent home the students yesterday were not social distancing or wearing masks or following most of the Covid secure rules. It takes a lot of policing from staff.

Parents cannot have it both ways. Either most/all students are back following strict rules and helping to protect the entire school community (other students, staff and parents) or there are no rules and there have to be fewer students in to create a Covid secure workplace for all (just like every other industry is having to do).

Buy into and enforce the rules. Demand track and trace is up and running and actual help us to create a style of schooling that can survive another large outbreak without closing down again.

I can’t see why people are so married to ‘all in no matter what’ when they must know that a new outbreak will close schools again.

Let’s make a way for kids to get an education in spite of the virus, no matter what.