To think that the belief that COVID was in the UK much earlier than first thought is a positive thing on many levels?

[AlternativePerspective]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/spate-of-possible-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

A friend of mine had severe cold in December and had an antibody test last week and it came back positive.

Others also now saying they had bad cold/flu like illnesses back then which in retrospect could have been COVID.

If COVID was here in December then it’s possible it could have been here even before that.

if not, then it still means that an awful lot more people will have had and recovered from the virus. Also it puts the risk level down because the risk is based on the number of cases since February. Considerably more cases than that reduces the risk level.

And, if people are still testing positive for antibodies then this is a positive step towards the belief that we do develop immunity.

It's a positive for me because it means in all likelihood we've already had it.

End of December we were all very unwell with exact Covid symptoms.

Same here - came back from the Caribbean in November with what I now think was Covid, symptoms were spot on. Was ill for weeks. Really hope I've already had it!

I don't think it's positive at all because it's leading people to think they had Covid 19 when they had flu.

Random testing seems to indicate less than 10% of the population have had it. This is entirely consistent with the spike in deaths starting in March and rising rapidly.

The symptoms of mild or moderate Covid 19 are exactly like other coronaviruses and similar things like rhinoviruses which sweep through the population every year.

There is some evidence of small outbreaks across Europe which never got going but 99% of the people who are dead sure they had Covid 19 in January/October/2011 are wrong.

I had something with very similar symptoms to COVID in very early November. It can’t have been COVID. So there was something going round at the end of last year that looks like it but wasn’t.

There’s nothing in the UK figures that would back up the idea of there being widespread community transmission in the UK before Jan anyway. The excess death peak would have started much earlier if that was the case and Jan & Feb had fewer deaths than average as it’s been a fairly mild flu season.

No one in the UK had COVID19 before January. You had another virus

I had something identical to Covid in early Feb. I doubt very much it was Covid so there is clearly something similar doing the rounds.

Fever - fatigue - awful dry persistent cough - terrible indigestion - then 3 days of breathlessness leading to complete loss of smell and taste. Had to sleep for a bit for two weeks after every time I did anything.

The initial news reports were that Chinese hospitals were seeing patients very ill an unusual form of pneumonia. So if it was here earlier than currently thought that would mean our doctors are less observant than the ones in Wuhan which is not what I would call a positive. And why would it suddenly only start killing people in March.

How does your friend know that the bad cold in December was it, rather than that she was one of the people who get it entirely asymptomatically, and she had it sometime in the last three months?

I thought that was established as a myth?

My DP did get sick in late Jan early Feb with something that had symptoms very similar to covid but I dont think it was. It would be easier for us if it was because then we would know, but I think it's wishful thinking.

And why would it suddenly only start killing people in March
Because people started to be hospitalized with it which increased transmission hugely amongst the sick and elderly? (Just my own theory no basis in research)

If I had thought I genuinely had Covid I would have rung 999 on two occasions and ended up in hospital.

Because I didn't think I had it, Indidnt panic or call 999, as I was sure I'd feel better in the morning which luckily I did.

My DP thinks he may have had the virus in January but I'm not so sure. If it was, the symptoms were very mild and he recovered quickly.

I was really unwell with symptoms in December which caused breathing issues which I have only recently fully recovered from so I would be delighted if this was the case.

I guess it depends on how long people are immune for. If it is only 3 to 6 months as some scientists are hypothesising catching it and recovering is not much good in the long term. It will also depend on whether the virus mutates and whether it is possible to get reinfected by a different strain.

I think it probably was here before February. When is anyone's guess.

As it was a new virus it is possible that deaths have been put down to flu or pneumonia, we will have to look at the excess deaths for November and December year on year.

There are so many bugs doing the rounds in winter. DP and I had coughs, slight fever, mild headache, fatigue that lasted a couple of weeks in Feb. I also had swollen glands. Who knows if it was Coronavirus or not. Unless we have an antibody test, we’ll never know.

@ITonyah

And why would it suddenly only start killing people in March Because people started to be hospitalized with it which increased transmission hugely amongst the sick and elderly? (Just my own theory no basis in research)

OK, so how come nobody needed to be hospitalised with it before March? I had a really bad cough in Feb and for a while thought I might have had it. Then just after lockdown I was ill again - this time I actually think it was as I felt much worse. If it had been around for a long time, the death spike would be earlier as would mass hospitalisation. It just doesn’t make sense that it was about earlier but only started to become fatal when we knew what to call it. However. I saw an article where some docs in Italy think the mutations are making it less virulent now so it could die out. I’m hopeful that’s the case, but it won’t affect my behaviour because nobody actually knows.

No one in the UK had COVID19 before January. You had another virus you cannot possibly know that for certain, any more than someone could know for certain that they did have it.

Just because people weren’t dying doesn’t mean it wasn’t COVID.

Remember that the vast, vast number of cases are mild and that most people come through it and survive.

It’s also possible that the virus could have been around then and could have mutated into a stronger form. Just as it’s possible it could again mutate to become weaker just as is said to be happening in Italy right now.

Me and my ex partner had a strange illness back in April 2019 and the no taste thing came in the last week, we were ill for nearly 4 weeks and we have never had an illness like it, he was worse as he has asthma. We both now believe it to have been Covid.

We and our GP think DH had it the beginning of February. He came down with the symptoms exactly 2 weeks to the day after coming back from just outside the Lombardy region.
I was so close to ringing 111. The only reason I didn't was that all the posters that were displayed around only mentioned China.

@Sugarplumfairy65 Are you absolutely sure about that? Prepared to stake your life on it? This would suggest you're highly likely to be wrong: <a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52589449&ved=2ahUKEwjc39Xd5eLpAhVSUBUIHa6-BccQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2G80hxKL-WS9EAsm4e8MZt&ampcf=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-52589449&ved=2ahUKEwjc39Xd5eLpAhVSUBUIHa6-BccQFjAAegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2G80hxKL-WS9EAsm4e8MZt&ampcf=1

And let's not forget that both France and the US have had their timelines pushed forward by a month, the first French case now proven to be December.

Now as we all know, anecdote is not data, but there is I believe a growing reason to research the early period in more depth, and to retest samples where possible.

Meant to add that nobody can truly know when CV came to the UK.

@ITonyah

If I had thought I genuinely had Covid I would have rung 999 on two occasions and ended up in hospital.

Because I didn't think I had it, Indidnt panic or call 999, as I was sure I'd feel better in the morning which luckily I did.

But if you had gone to hospital they’d have sent you straight home again. My friend who had breathing difficulties for actual covid wasn’t hospitalised either, though she had paramedics there twice. Her breathing hasn’t recovered yet (8 weeks and counting). It didn’t improve in the morning.

If it had been around for a long time, the death spike would be earlier as would mass hospitalisation. It just doesn’t make sense that it was about earlier but only started to become fatal when we knew what to call it. except that at that time of year people are being hospitalised and are dying of what is then always said to be flu or pneumonia.

As pneumonia is a consequence of COVID it’s entirely possible that some of those deaths would be attributable to COVID but because those people were never tested we don’t know whether they are or not.