Do you think there will be a united Ireland before the end of the decade?

[KenDodd]

Yabu = no
Yanbu = yes

Nope. Benefits British government hand out, block grant and nhs are too good. Even most staunch Republicans I know in drunken moments will admit economically we would be so worse off

No. An independent NI is more likely, in my opinion.

Ireland can't afford it for starters.

Not this decade but at some point.

Hopefully not

No.
Dublin can’t afford the welfare and healthcare bill.
I think there will be more of a move towards an effective devolved state.

No.
It will become an independent.
Even if most of the people were willing to give up the NHS etc the loyalists would be upset, it wouldn't with the GFA fairness to both sides, then paramilitaries on both sides will fight.
I've lots of friends in NI the majority Catholic very few want a United Ireland.
They are aware the Republic is expensive the public health service isn't great, disability services, are dreadful.
You often have to pay privately to get timely medical attention.
They get all the school stuff free too, courses, doctors, dental, plenty of social housing built, lots of government jobs.

UK gone by 2050 at the latest. Scotland very likely to leave. Why wouldn't NI follow?

because its not the same country, Gasp0de?

By 2030?

I think it's certainly a possibility once Brexit settles in for the long haul.

The EU have said they would basically absorb a lot of the cost as it'd be a reunification situation. But realistically it would be a devolved province, with some self governance in Stormont. It wouldnt look all that different day to day, it's just the maps would look different. Simon Coveney has said it wouldnt and couldn't be ruled by Dublin as it would be too much of a pill to swallow.

There's absolutely no appetite for it in Dublin, because it's a logistical nightmare and a money pit. What government wants to oversee that? So they'll kick it down the road as long as possible.

But if Brexit really starts to make things messy in NI then there might be an appetite up there, even amongst Unionists, for exploring what it might look like to rejoin the EU under ROIs umbrella.

We can't afford to maintain the North in the manner it has become accustomed to.

On a ireland ideological level, I hope so.

Realistically? Probably not.

Scotland leaving the UK by 2030 seems far more likely.

It would be wonderful but I don't think it will happen in my lifetime

The nationalist side of me would love it but I think it wouldnt be a great idea for now. NI is a money pit, there's potential for violence to kick off and we would have to make huge concessions for the unionists.

I agree with the poster who said 2030 might be more realistic.

@Waveysnail Ireland are actually more generous benefits than the UK

How UK compares to other welfare states
But yeah, their healthcare system could be improved.

I think Brexit has definitely pushed it in that direction. If it all goes horribly over the next few years I think people in NI might choose to stay with the EU rather than the UK

I think a lot of Brexit discussions showed the lack of respect or regard to the unionists in NI.
A lot of them live and breathe the Queen, until they realised parliament didnt give a shit about them.
Then there is the old fashioned DUP.
Where would they go? Or would the parties stay and be a separate goverment which would not work until they decide to walk out for another few years.

Can Scotland support itself financially? I'm not sure these small places can, tbh.

Going out on your own means applying to join the EU as an independent nation. That's a very long and expensive process.

Whereas reunification means you just rejoin automatically. It's the more practical option.

I think if Scotland manages to leave the UK and rejoin the EU, which is possible, then NI might do something similar.

I see the unionists are going bonkers over customs checks in the Irish Sea; it seems Boris might have been less than truthful over what post-Brexit conditions might be.

Maybe the UK government have finally realised that it isn't possible to have an open border between the EU and Ireland, an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, an open border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, but a closed border between the UK and the EU. What a surprise!

Ireland are actually more generous benefits than the UK That is true but they don't have that many people on benefits per head compared to NI.

@ElspethFlashman

Plenty of small countries survive independently. Devil is in the details of course.

That said, Scotland is an oil-rich nation. I’m not aware of many poor oil-rich nations...

Haha - in my head 2030 was 20 years away! I need a coffee... I could possibly see it happening by 2040.

When this topic came up before I was surprised to see that many people don't know the people of ROI must also vote on reunification via border poll.

But who owns that oil? It may be privately owned or the UK may have lengthy contracts to mine it.

I know Tusk said that there would be enthusiasm for it, but they would need to start at the beginning of the application process.

I think people in NI might choose to stay with the EU rather than the UK

But the Irish people have a say too and I know of one who would be for a united Ireland and everyone else against.

I do not think this will happen in my lifetime (another 50 years at the outside)

No. It won't ever happen I don't think. Certainly not in my lifetime.

@ElspethFlashman - the “UK” doesn’t “mine” oil. Why talk about something you know nothing about

That said, Scotland is an oil-rich nation. I’m not aware of many poor oil-rich nations...

The oil market isn’t exactly buoyant these days...