Boris is sending his subjects back out to war as a social experiment

[Monty27]

I'm still not too keen on getting cov19 .
Anyone?
Social experiment might be slightly dramatic but more people will become infected and I think he's putting the economy before us. 😔

Everanewbie

I am interested in your calculations of risk, that risk of dying from covid is the same a risk of dying over a year with a daily London to Swindon commute

What age range are you thinking of when you do that calculation?
Also are you considering risk as "numbers who have died" or "probability of catching * probability of death if caught"

And in the later case, what are you assuming for the probability of catching , which surely depends on what R values you assume going forward?

@Sallycinammonbangsthedruminthe
Good post

The public doesn't care much about you either, not me. We all care about ourselves and our loved ones, but ultimately, we and loved ones are not going to be doing too well if the economy totally collapses.

What if the rate goes down to the sane level of death from pneumonia or flu? Or should the economy have stopped because of these conditions? Where does it stop?

attackedbycritters i read it somewhere. Its based on under 60 with no serious co-morbidity using stats of who has died so far. So risk of a. catching, and b. going on to die from it.

I'm sorry, I am no statistician, I am trying to illustrate that there is a risk, and in general people should be aware and take steps to reduce the risks, but keep it in proportion and not let perception get too far ahead of reality.

For those mentioning essential workers who go out so others can stay at home.

Why would you want to increase risk to them? Heck yes let’s all go out and be at risk so it’s equal?

Just to add, approximately 17,000 people die from flu and 29,000 from pneumonia each year. The UK has the second worse rate of pneumonia death rate in Europe.

It's not the total death that should stop the economy, it's the likely spread. We don't know yet the likely rate with semi measures in place.

He is dammed if he relaxes lockdown and dammed if he doesn’t increase it. You only have the threads on here that are are diametrically opposed and their writers utterly convinced that their view is the only correct one

I totally get it about the economy but you can't work or earn if you're dead. If someone close to you dies your mindset will change. If BJ had implemented full lockdown and properly, including closure of ports/testing and quarantine of incomers, we'd have had a chance to get through this maybe. As it is I'm wondering if there may be a 2nd spike. In which case we all pseudo-lockdown again and economy goes to pot anyway. I find this befuddled, not up to the job but 'hey he's ok has fun hair & says it as he sees it' man frightening. No leadership qualities whatsoever and will lead the population over a metaphorical cliff. It definitely does have the whiff of a social experiment about it. Or at the very least, herd immunity policy via stealth

What was the alternative though? Hundreds of thousands dead?

First, we've no way of knowing if folk have died of the virus or with it - especially given the bulk of deaths are among seniors with comorbidities

Second, the doomsday predictions - which have been wrong too often before - simply haven't happened in countries with different approaches (Czech Republic, Sweden, etc.)

Third, in nations who've already started to do this, the "catastrophe" which easing lockdown was said to bring hasn't happened either

Fourth, our government aren't even capable of consistent reporting (constant dips at weekends, death reports "mislaid", deceit over testing target "being met" and much more)

It's worried me from the very start that other nations will be getting on with things while we lag behind whining, and that's exactly what's starting to happen. Fortunately, the grip on reality which most ordinary folk have retained might just carry us through what could turn out to be the biggest overreaction in history

@IntermittentParps

Not all countries have testing, tracking and tracing.

@Puzzledandpissedoff

You can’t blame the Government for the dips at the weekend. That is simply an admin issue in the normal death registration process.

We do know that the virus is responsible because normally those comorbidity people would not be dying at the rate they currently are. They estimate at least 10,000 more deaths than they have actually measured based on the abnormally high death rate over the last few weeks

And don't try to convince yourself that they only had a few weeks or months left anyway so that them dying early doesn't matter

What has stopped the government from being able to put in place the measures other European countries have on releasing lockdown? Why won’t they make face coverings compulsory - where DB and family live in Germany there’s no entry into shops or onto trams/trains without a mask. What is the issue with testing. Again SIL felt unwell over the weekend. She phoned for advice and as they don’t drive, a tester wearing full PPE was sent to their home to swab her on Monday. Results came back negative today. Why is the tracing app already seemingly shit? Why are the tubes and buses not able to run full services? Unions I know but if the other systems were working they’d have less staff off ill. Why are the government late to do everything that has proved effective in other countries and why are they making a mess of the things they are doing. I think everything that could possibly hamper the much needed reopening of schools, businesses and services is happening. We have been badly let down by our government.

You can’t blame the Government for the dips at the weekend. That is simply an admin issue in the normal death registration process

In that case I'd ask why other countries - Italy, for example - see nothing like the same dips and spikes over the week. Granted there'll be some, but not like this

And on the subject of identifying what's actually caused a death at the moment, this is well worth a read: off-guardian.org/2020/05/05/covid-19-is-a-statistical-nonsense/

Why are the government late to do everything that has proved effective in other countries

You may well ask ... in particular, why are they suggesting introducing quarantine for arrivals once numbers are sufficiently low, rather than as a priority?

It might make some sense if most places still had higher cases than ours, but they don't; therefore it appears there's another reason for this, but I'm damned if I can think what it is

It was Tony Blair’s Labour government that was fighting tooth and nail to bring in ID cards.
I'm glad someone remembers this. They also wanted to bring in "pay as you drive", where every car would be fitted with GPS tracking. This was fiercely opposed, so the idea was dropped. If Tony Bliar ("I am God, didn't you know?") was imposing lockdown, he would have loved the whole thing, putting the little people in their place, pontificating every day from behind a lectern, while imagining he was Jesus delivering the sermon on the mount.

It does feel like an experiment, especially with the very vague information this week: how will the public interpret it?

I do think that we are in danger of sleepwalking into 1984: the public (almost eagerly) accepted the lockdown, and became very ready to grass on their neighbours, just like the children do in 1984.

what could turn out to be the biggest overreaction in history Yep. I think that in a year's time, the recession which we will be struggling through may well be remembered much more than the virus, and the consequences of that will still very much be being felt, while the virus fears will have died away.

The World Health Organisation's Chief Scientist said today that it could take up to five years to get the outbreak under control. Do you really think that we can afford to keep paying a quarter of the UK's workforce to not work for five years?

I do think that a lot of people underestimate how many have been out there working all the way through this.

All the things that we've been depending on while staying at home, electricity, gas, communications, food, deliveries, refuse collection, benefits and probably a load more that I can't think of, not to mention medical care and child care in schools, transport, have all been provided by people going to work. And I'm very grateful to them all.

My sister works for the DWP and lives with our elderly parents. She's doing all she can to keep herself and them safe and that's all she can do. I suspect that eventually that's what everyone will have to do if a vaccine doesn't come along.

Sending us back out to war? There is no war, if there was the currently terrified would be having a complete meltdown. I'm not one of his "subjects" either.

Social experiment might be slightly dramatic but more people will become infected and I think he's putting the economy before us. 😔

This lockdown was never about our safety and anyone who thinks it was is very naive. Why should he care about you or me? He doesn't know we exist!!!

Of course he is putting the economy first and I'm very comfortable with that. People still need to earn money and businesses still need to run. The economic damage that's been done up to this point will be felt for a very long time to come.

I'm so surprised there are this many people who don't care about the virus, who dies from it and don't care about even demanding safe workplaces, or safe schools. I think a lot of these are fake posts by the Tory party. Either that or people don't care about anything but themselves.

I never realised so many Mumsnet readers were selfish and right wing, and cared so little about the vulnerable who might die from this. The lack of understanding is breathtaking.

There is a way of starting the economy but trying to keep people safe at the same time, e.g. free masks at every public transport hub, just one example.

Anyone on mumsnet who expresses concern about getting the virus is dismissed as a scaremonger who doesn't understand the economy. Ludicrous.

It looks to me now like a return to the ill-fated Herd Immunity approach in England and a recipe for a second wave.

The people complaining about people going back to work will be the same people complaining about austerity in a couple of years.