VE get togethers...will we see blip in CV?

[ScrewBalls99]

Just wondering whether with all the street parties yesterday anyone else wondering whether we will see a blip in number of CV cases in a couple of weeks? Or do you think it has died out following lockdown so far?

@BirdieFriendReturns
How do you know? No one else does

@ScrewBalls99
Do you really imagine anyone thinks it has died out due to lockdown so far? Look at the daily new infections

What Morris said. The only spike has been in how many are so quick to actively want to live in a police state forever and would happily surrender to government by junta as if that is somehow safe.

No, I'm not expecting a big spike.
The risk from sitting spaced out, outdoors with non-symptomatic people in warm, dry weather, after 7 weeks of social distancing is pretty darn low. I remain more cautious about hazards like crossing unusually quiet roads.

The more people mix with larger groups, which mix with other groups again, the more the risk increases. As an isolated event in an area that has been very obliging about all, the mental benefits of some real life socialising outweight the hazard of virus transmission.

I wouldn't be hanging out with inebriated people or those who've been socialising as normal though.

Yes

NoMorePolitics - No, I don't think itt died out. Just wondered what others thought.

There can only be a spike if people in those groups are contagious.

Looking at the case load per local authority, outside the big cities the chances of that are slim.

It probably has pretty much died out, apart from in certain settings such as care homes and hospitals. I doubt there will be a spike as a result of a few drunk people mixing. The biggest risk of catching it is for those who fell over and ended up in a and e

Yes. Very few people by me were actually obeying social distancing

I don't think we'll see a rise.

But instead of numbers continuing to drop, I think they'll remain steady for much longer. So it won't look like a spike, but in reality it will be.

‘you don't catch it from someone passing close to you unless they cough or sneeze all over you’

Actually data from published epidemiology and virologic studies provide evidence that COVID-19 is primarily transmitted from symptomatic people to others who are in close contact through respiratory droplets, by direct contact with infected persons, or by contact with contaminated objects and surfaces.

So picture that infected person who just touched and pulled through every one of the bagged salads in Waitrose to get the best before dates a metre ahead of you? And you then have a rifle yourself to find the freshest raddichio/rocket combo?

You don’t have to be sneezed or coughed over in a supermarket to become infected.

Vanilla honey - good point

No spike, there is very little circulating in the community now. The new infections are largely care homes, carers, NHS & their families. Of course some of that will leak out to the wider community as we move forward but that's inevitable unless we all stay locked down for the foreseeable future.

‘It probably has pretty much died out, apart from in certain settings such as care homes and hospitals.’

Be interested in your source for that?
Also how many people work in hospitals and care homes? How do we manage the risk if them transmitting the infection in Tesco?

If testing continues at new high levels in a more sustained and consistent way, we may continue to see high levels.

And then people will be crying because increased testing/increased cases = more conspiracy theories.

There were between 5,000-15,000 new diagnoses yesterday so no, I don’t think that it’s died out

Very unlikely. It's been known for weeks now that transmission is very low outside, as long as social distancing rules are maintained.
Most transmission occurs in enclosed spaces, when shared with an infected person , for a length of time (about 15 minutes).
That's presumably why the police were told to back off when it came to people sunbathing in parks and sitting on benches, etc.
It wouldn't be advisable for care workers or medical staff to be doing the conga or hugging their neighbours, but there's no reason why people can't stand a few feet away having a chat and a drink.

I'm expecting a spike here. There were street parties near me that had DJs and bouncy castles, dancing in the street, shared BBQs and no distancing. In areas with high deprivation so they're higher risk anyway.

Easter Sunday was 12th April. The official hospital deaths in England don’t show a spike. In fact, deaths in hospitals have dropped from 700 on Easter Sunday to 50 yesterday, nearly 4 weeks later.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/05/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-9-May-2020.xlsx

I would guess that the increased amount of people being tested have caused an increase in numbers of people with CV?

“BBC health correspondent Nick Triggle said the rise earlier this week was probably due to an increase in testing rather than the rate of infection going up.

All the indications - from hospital admissions to deaths - show the number of infections have been falling for some time, he added.”

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-51768274

“ On Friday, the government said the number of people in hospital with coronavirus had fallen from 14,346 to 11,788 over the past week, a decrease of 18%.

Figures have been gradually declining since a peak over Easter.”

Our street of terraced houses with no front gardens had lots of people out the front who I’m sure started with the best of intentions but as they got drunker it didn’t stay that way and some even piled into one garden to carry on their party. We didn’t join in at all as we assumed it would happen that way and it’s impossible to social distance anyway. Still, at least there wasn’t a fucking conga line like elsewhere

Apparently at least some A+E departments had a massive increase of patients last night- sunny bank holidays and booze have that effect usually anyway.

To sum up: I can see there being another spike.

I read something on MN yesterday which sums this up for me: 'We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when. Er, probably down the covid ward at the infirmary in about 10-14 days time is my guess.'

I think some people will be disappointed when there isn’t a spike and people don’t get their just desserts. Or something.

I don't believe Liverpool is business as usual. Surely there's a major street with Primark, H&M, McDonald's etc? And these are all now closed, along with every single pub, cafe, and non essential shop?

There are empty streets in every city centre in the UK, if any of them had shops open and crowds, the press would cover it.

I don’t think it will be as obvious as that. And also people are getting more lax about things generally, not just for VE Day.