AIBU to think this can't go on for a whole year??

[cola2019]

AIBU in thinking that this cannot go on for a year?? My husband seems to think that until there is a vaccine available life cannot go back to normal. I can't envisage not seeing my parents for a year (my dad has cancer so is currently in the sheilding group). He keeps telling me that I need to face up to the fact that we can't see our parents until they have been vaccinated. No shops, no bars, no events, no schools. Surely economically life will have to resume slowly we can't wait till 2021 surely. But as soon as lockdown is lifted and people start mixing then it will spike again.

It won’t be a year, people are dying. It will go on until at least 2022. If you care about killing others you’ll lockdown until possibly 2022, most likely 2023. If you don’t, then that shows you don’t mind killing people.
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It won't be the same level of lockdown for s year, but I don't really expect "normality" on that timescale anyway.

For those shielding, I expect people will start to make their own decisions and risk assessments. For some the mental distress will not be worth it, for others it will.

@Russellbrandshair your missing the bigger picture .

Seriously why do you think that when the government announces lockdown is over everything is going to go back to normal? There is no cure and no vaccine, whilst I think we will be allowed in pubs /meet our friends and family will we really want to knowing that we could be passing on a virus that kills them.
I think meeting the shielded in gardens /through windows etc will be the only way to physically see them. I'm devastated by this fact as would love to hug my family but without a cure or vaccine it won't be possible.
Already a Japanese Island that went out of lock down in the end of March as had only one or two cases a day is already up to 135 a day, and Germany is risking the transmission rate.

The economy needs to take priority.

@GoatyGoatyMingeMinge Over death/people dying?

It will depend on the individual shielding. For someone with cancer going through treatment but with a very good chance of long term remission, then continuing to shield makes sense.
I know a lot of younger people in the shielding group and all have said they will shield for a year if they have to, because they could live another 30 or 40 years. So 1 year out of their life however hard it is, is worth it. A different weighing up if you are expected to only live for another year or two though. In that case you may decide to risk getting it.

And I have to be honest I would not be interested in going to places like pubs and restaurants until I am secure that I will not get the virus. These places are supposed to be fun. It is not going to be fun to be freaked every time a stranger coughs or sneezes. And people do cough and sneeze just naturally who are well.

@katypyee people will die from do we carry on like this.... it's lives vs lives whichever way you cut it.

The choice isn't between the economy and saving lives. It's not a question of choosing the economy or health. If restrictions are lifted too much or too soon the virus will grow exponentially and that will do nothing for the economy. On the other hand if we lock down completely till 2021 or beyond the toll on health from the lockdown and the recession will be very severe.

It is essential that the govt find a way to move forward with the connections between health and the economy in mind, not setting one against the other. It's very irresponsible and self indulgent to pretend they are either/or priorities, it's not a luxury that actual decisions makers have.

It won't stay as it is now for a year imo, it will start to change subtly soon. No one can predict how exactly it plays out. It depends on how well people comply with this first lockdown and therefore how low we can get force of transmission and case numbers. If we can get them low enough for testing and tracing to be effective, it depends on the govt actually putting that in place, alongside PPE, workplace provisions etc. It depends on whether any seasonal effect emerges, whether more people turn out to have had it and whether they have any immunity, whether any drug treatments emerge soon.

People need to stop asking for set dates and exact measures, no one can give us those. Equally no one can say for sure that we are all doomed and lockdown will be in place for the foreseeable.

@GoatyGoatyMingeMinge
the economy needs to take priority

Really? Priority over people’s lives? I’m sure people that have lost a loved one to this virus would think differently.

I'd expect and id expect schools to reopen from June. But there is likely to be some element of social distancing until the end of year yes.

How can schools re-open and maintain social distancing? If we were to adhere to the 2 metre rule then we would only be able to have 5 or 6 children in the classroom and the playground would have to be closed. We would only be able to accommodate 5 or 6 children for lunch as well.

*will still die that was supposed to say.

You can't prioritise lives lost to coronavirus over any other cause indefinitely.

I think working from home where possible will continue for the year.

No idea how schools will work

Maybe relaxation to allow mixing with close friends and family

Russelbrandshair what a stupid thing to say.
If i cant earn money until 2022 me and my child will die on the streets from hunger.
If youre in a position to not need to leave the house for work or kids that need food and an education good for you but most people are not in that situation.
Most people are also not at massive risk if they catch the virus.
Personally I'd rather die from the virus than starve or freeze to death.
People need to earn money to live.
We need to learn to live with it and protect the most vulnerable.

Whatever schools do, I am being cautious about when my kids go back.
I read that they are estimating 20% of parents will keep their kids off school when schools first go back. I will be one of those parents. I will want to see what happens as a result of schools going back before deciding when to send them back.

@blubellsarebells We need to earn money as well. As soon as lock down is over my DP will have to go back to work. But I will still be trying to minimise our exposure as a family. There is what is necessary and discretionary.

Think the worst and then anything slightly better is a plus

Of course and nothing will go back to normal any time soon, but i was replying to a pp who is implying that anyone who doesnt lock down until 2022 is a murderer.
Im making the point that many people would die from other causes if this carries on for that long.
The virus most likely won't kill me if i catch it, not being able to buy food and living on the streets over winter might.

Russellbrandshair

Take your stupid chess piece and toddle off, there's a love.

@PepperMooMoo People are not being treated because -

1. They are terrified to go to a hospital in case they catch covid 19. They are being actively encouraged to go.
2. There are no staff for their treatment because they have been redeployed. Whether we are in lock down or not, if there is not enough staff, some people will die from a lack of treatment. With numbers dying falling a bit, hopefully there will be enough staff to treat.
3. Patients are at more risk of dying if they catch covid 19, than if they have their treatment delayed. Lock down or not does not change this. The government are now talking about setting up treatment centres separate from hospitals treating covid 19 patients. This will hopefully make it safer.

None of the reasons for treatments being delayed or not happening is to do with whether we are in lock down or not. They would happen anyway.

Lockdown until a vaccine?

Almost all airlines, restaurants, pubs and shops will be bankrupt by then. Half the population will have lost their jobs, their homes?

This madness has to end

People are dying, yes, people have always been dying. But until last month we did not publish seat numbers in the front page of every paper.

Maybe by publishing death rates for cancer, obesity related illnesses, road accidents etc we will all decide never to leave our homes again

If people say the economy (= people having jobs) does not matter, they must be in cushy financial position

@blubellsarebells If you have a relative who is having cancer treatment, then infecting them accidentally with covid 19 may very well kill them.

@TheHumansAreDefinitelyDead We do publish deaths from all those illnesses. And charities trying to reduce those illnesses also publicise how many people die of them and what we need to do to reduce the levels of deaths. The government also does prevention programmes such as those aimed at children and families.

The number of women and children dying from domestic violence per month has increased sevenfold in lockdown. The economy is in free fall.

I understand that we need to prevent the spread of the virus, and will absolutely do what I’m told, but this surely needs to be weighed up against the societal costs?

So following all the information that's been given here and in other countries a decent guess would be:

• Schools will start a phased return from 1 June. There will be limits on the number of kids per classroom which means that most probably won't attend every day but on more of a rota system. Staggered lunch and break times. Not all years will go back in June, some will be later.

• Work from home where possible will stay in place for the foreseeable future, most likely the rest of the year

• Retail, restaurants and such like will be allowed to open (not sure from when, mid June?) but will have to put measures in place so that customers can stay 6ft apart in the same way supermarkets have

• Not everyone on furlough will get to go back to work, there will be a lot of redundancies

• Who we can meet with will be slowly relaxed - starting with being able to meet with small groups of people outside our own household but always to keep 6 ft distance

• Still have to self isolate for 14 days on any symptoms as an entire household for the rest of the year

• People on the shielded list should try to shield for the foreseeable future or at least severely limit contact with the outside world as much as they can

• Restrictions on number of times you can leave the house for exercise and reasons you can leave the house to be lifted

• People on the vulnerable list to be told to limit their exposure as much as they are able but no special measures in place for them

• Possible that BAME keyworkers to be taken off frontline due to what seems to be increased severity?

These measures will be increased if numbers go back up.