There will be changes to ease the restrictions, and then probably there will be more phases of tighter restrictions again
That's very much how I see it. I think the brakes will be on and off and on again depending on what the infection and death rates do.
I think non-food shops (some types, anyway) will be allowed to open with restrictions on numbers in them according to size, to maintain social distancing. Pubs and restaurants, likewise, although I think many will decide that it's not viable to open and pay staff and some premises costs for such small numbers. Schools could reopen, but maybe with only 50% of children attending on alternate weeks. I think schools is the trickiest in some ways, because while children tend to only get mild symptoms if affected, they are tremendous vectors of infection.
I'm hoping that things like dentists, opticians, hairdressers and so on will be able to get back to work soon, but with some degree of PPE.
I can't see big gatherings being allowed for some time yet and wouldn't be at all surprised if they were still restricted at the end of the year, maybe longer.
A lot will depend on what progress is made with a vaccine.