to think it's madness to not ask for an extension to transition period?

[BaileysforBreakfast]

The government has approximately 36 days in which to decide whether to ask for an extension to the transition period. If they don't, we have only 7.5 months to hammer out a deal with the EU while we are in the grip of a worldwide crisis. If a deal isn't reached, we will have no trade agreement in place in December. It's possible, of course, that we may make agreements with other countries before then.

Cards on the table - I am opposed to Brexit and have always thought it was madness. IMO people in this country are suffering enough at the moment. Our economy is in a dangerous place right now and it would be reckless to not ask for an extension. What do others think?

YANBU - we should request an extension to the transition period
YABU - we should go ahead regardless

The EU is going to be an economic basket case after all this - all the Southern European countries are screwed due to the complete collapse of their main trade, tourism and are going to need massive support from the Northern European industrial countries. We really don't want to be stuck with the EU and responsible for paying in to support the EU support package. We'll have enough of our own problems but at least we have a more balanced economy and hopefully we can massively ramp up our own industrial/manufacturing base which should provide employment etc for those displaced from the tourism/service/retail industries which will take years to recover.

The traffic through Dover will be greatly reduced of course - fewer tourists and less chance of hold ups

Always a positive

So the economy is fucked, we won't be getting imports, tourists won't be coming to the UK to spend their money, businesses will have shut down, who knows what unemployment will be like, who knows what the taxes will be like

But on the bright side, there will be fewer people and lorries coming through Dover so we can do the customs checks quicker.

tourists won't be coming to the UK to spend their money

Well they won't until a covid vaccine/treatment anyway would they?

Anyway, when holidays are back on the agenda, people are more likely to stay and holiday in the UK, so spending their money in the UK rather than filling the coffers of other countries.

After all, more people/money flow out of the UK for holidays than into the UK for holidaying from other countries, so if we reduce the flows in both directions, UK is a winner!

The people who would be affected the most are the ones who voted for Brexit and denying them the opportunity to actually live out the consequences of that decision would mean leaving room for idiots like Nigel Farage to sway them with even more extremist messaging
Pensioner brexiters are not going to be the most affected. They are still going to have their pensions coming in and don't have jobs to lose.

hopefully we can massively ramp up our own industrial/manufacturing base
If it was so quick and easy to 'massively ramp up' manufacturing and industry, you'd have thought the government would have been all over the shortage of PPE, ventilators etc.
I'm no expert, but I would have thought trade deals would be agreed based on our ability to supply things we already produce/resources we already have, rather than things we might be able to 'ramp up' at some point in the future.

@Clavinova

“ £1 bought around $1.48 in global markets on 23 June, the date of the referendum. Today it’s about $1.22. That’s a drop of around 18% since the day of the vote.

The fall is down to the expectations of investors, who believe that the UK’s economy won’t grow as quickly in future. Their reaction has been to convert their money into other currencies so that it can be invested elsewhere—and when there’s less demand for a currency, its value drops.

This makes imports more expensive. It makes money sent abroad less valuable once exchanged into the local currency. And it raises the cost of a holiday in another country.

Exchange rate movements, rather than any underlying rise in the prices of foreign goods and service, explain lots of post-referendum price rises.”

“ But the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies describes as “nonsense” the idea that a weaker pound will, overall, make British people better off.”

fullfact.org/economy/brexit-and-price-rises/?utm_source=content_page&utm_medium=related_content

I think pp are right in that the Eu will most definitely be in a very weak position from now. The Eu isn't simply made up of Germany and France, it has Greece and other poorer countries to carry as well.

That will drag down the overall EU wealth.
That is partly why we left, we were heavy contributors to the Eu. We must take account not only of how well we do without being part of it but also how much we save by not being a part of it.

I've also noticed how much salaries are going down in my sector yet the public sector is continuing to have a raise every year. The salaries are going down due to better technologies being available so less staff required and jobs no longer existing.

So what is the government doing to get to efficient staff levels? Not much it would appear. Continuing to hire as many people as possible. And also you try getting a public sector job if you're not already in it or know someone who knows someone. Even when you are way higher skilled than those already there. That is unacceptable and covers up the inefficiencies. I hope this improved post brexit with less protection given to stale staff who know they are safe as housed and do little work.

Talking to you all day biscuit stuffing brenda.

Anyway, when holidays are back on the agenda, people are more likely to stay and holiday in the UK, so spending their money in the UK rather than filling the coffers of other countries

That's true. If people want to spend, that is. I should imagine that many people will be very reluctant to spend money they don't need to after having seen the economic effect of this pandemic - and will focus on building up savings.

Our service economy is going to take a beating.

Of course it's madness but the government is being run by an unelected weirdo who is intent on destroying everything to see what happens, secure in the knowledge that he'll be OK as he's rich. Boris the Lazy Clown doesn't care because he has achieved his goal of being PM and has loads of money too.

Ironically, if COVID 19 had happened 4 years ago the referendum result would have been different as many of those who voted for Brexit are now dead and the rest have realised that actually foreigners can be quite useful sometimes.

big potato where on earth do you get the idea that public sector workers get a pay rise every year? You seem to be one of the huge group of people who have many doubtless justifiable resentments about their lives and wrongly and umfathomably think the EU is to blame for them all. It's not and we're all going to find out just how much worse life can get. Who will you blame for that once we're out?

Yes, ismell. It's interesting that Patel has finally shut up about her points-based immigration system. I assume it's because she's realised how many key workers wouldn't meet her criteria and how dependent we are on immigrants.

newbie111
This makes imports more expensive. It makes money sent abroad less valuable once exchanged into the local currency. And it raises the cost of a holiday in another country.

On the other hand, UK exporters, the UK hospitality industry, pension funds (pre-coronavirus!) etc. benefitted;

"A weaker pound is good news for UK exporters, because their goods become cheaper to overseas buyers–which is also beneficial to the domestic hospitality industry."

"Also, investors may well have noticed that when the pound weakens, the FTSE100 index tends to rise.This is because around 70% of the FTSE100’s revenues come from overseas, with a large proportion of that denominated in US dollars."

"When the pound falls in value, those dollar earnings buy more pounds when exchanged back into sterling, making those revenues more valuable."

We have left the EU.

Hankering after some kind of staying in, or extending our association with it (and paying more to it) it is an argument that has had its day.

It just seems some people cannot accept leaving.

The EU has done nothing for Italy or Spain, during the virus crisis,and is no longer of any use to the UK.

The EU may soon implode as countries see its incompetence and greed.

the government is being run by an unelected weirdo

You mean like Gordon Brown's few years as PM during which he thrashed the UK economy?

At least Boris won a GE!

I think you've missed the point there, Kazzy, either intentionally or unintentionally. I think the 'unelected weirdo' is Cummings.

It just seems some people cannot accept leaving.
You've also missed the point, Malvina. This thread is not about whether people 'accept' leaving or otherwise. It is about whether the transition period should be extended because of Covid.

@Clavinova

1. We're a net importer and therefore a weaker currency makes imports more expensive.
2. Weaker currency and net importer status increases inflation which may offset any reductions in export prices by having a direct impact on input costs such as materials and labour.
3. "the FTSE100 index tends to rise.This is because around 70% of the FTSE100’s revenues come from overseas, with a large proportion of that denominated in US dollars." Yes, and since this revenue is earned and taxed overseas, there is no real benefit to the UK economy except for those who hold the shares.

@Theduchessstill I worked for the public sector.

Pay for most public sector workers also rose above inflation last year after the Government ended the across-the-board 1% pay rise cap in September 2017. Earnings growth for public sector workers reached 3.6% last year.

From a report by the government itself 22/07/19.

This is rare in the private sector. Many private sectors go years without automatic pay rises.

@Malvinaaa81 By your logic, we should kick out the Conservative party as they have done nothing for the UK:

1. They failed to implement the lockdown measures early enough which means they're directly responsible for thousands of deaths.
2. They have failed to provide adequate protection for our healthcare workers.
3. They have failed to articulate a sensible Brexit strategy (hoping for a deal isn't a strategy)

You have been fucked up by the pandemic. Your staff and customers are worried about money and finances so are reluctant to spend. We haven't had time to prepare any kind of deal

But we are going to leave without a deal because of a principle

This

Cept I dont think the phrase you wanted was ‘of a principle’ i think there’s loads of better ones

@bigpotato "This is rare in the private sector. Many private sectors go years without automatic pay rises."

Don't know who you work for but zero pay rises is not a normal thing in the private sector. Also, it's a lot easier to progress in your career in the private sector than the public sector and the salary bands for similar occupations in the private sector are significantly higher.

@bigpotato before the pay rise you mention there had been no pay rises to speak of for the best part of a decade in the public sector (I also work in it). Some people will be eligible to apply for pay rises as they climb up the grades, but not everyone, and of those who do apply not all will be successful, certainly in my profession. Surely you have heard of 'the public sector pay freeze'?

I used to work in the public sector. The "automatic pay rises" we got each year were, in real terms, a pay cut once inflation was factored in.

In the public sector everyone is on a salary band for their pay grade and when you join they imply that over time in the same grade you will progress from the bottom of that salary band closer to the top of it. This is a lie. Every year they move the bottom of the pay band up by a few hundred pounds, which corresponds more or less to the automatic pay rise. So if you join the public sector at the bottom of a salary band, you stay at the bottom of it for as long as you remain at that pay grade. And there are usually stupid rules about how many years you have to remain in one role, and sometimes an expectation that you will do two or more roles at the same pay grade before you're considered eligible for promotion, which means you are stuck on the same salary for at least five years before you even have a chance of moving up.

It's absolutely nothing like the private sector whatsoever. If you're in the private sector and you're not getting annual pay rises which are at the very lease above inflation, you're a mug.

I was opposed to BREXIT. I still am. But I don't think there should be an extension. The country has made it's bed and it is time to lie in it.

We have left the EU, but are currently in an agreed (by us and the EU0 transition deal while a future trade relationship is negotiated. This deal is due to end on Dec 31.

Trade deals invariably take years. The EU-Canada deal took six years. The argument is that we are currently aligned wish to negotiate divergence, when most trade agreements are the reverse. It is argued that this is much easier. This might or might not be the case.

Whatever the case, no progress has been made. No substantive negotiations have been completed. If no deal can be negotiated, we go over the cliff edge with an economy that has been severely damaged by the Covid crisis.