to think it's madness to not ask for an extension to transition period?

[BaileysforBreakfast]

The government has approximately 36 days in which to decide whether to ask for an extension to the transition period. If they don't, we have only 7.5 months to hammer out a deal with the EU while we are in the grip of a worldwide crisis. If a deal isn't reached, we will have no trade agreement in place in December. It's possible, of course, that we may make agreements with other countries before then.

Cards on the table - I am opposed to Brexit and have always thought it was madness. IMO people in this country are suffering enough at the moment. Our economy is in a dangerous place right now and it would be reckless to not ask for an extension. What do others think?

YANBU - we should request an extension to the transition period
YABU - we should go ahead regardless

Brexit negotiations are still taking place you just don't get to hear about them in the media because there is another much bigger news event taking place right now.

I suppose it depends which media you're looking at. Brexit negotiations were paused while Barnier and Frost and some of their colleagues recovered from Covid. Teleconference meetings resumed this week.

But the OP is obviously right. The time available to negotiate the final relationship between the UK and the EU was ridiculously short anyway. It's now basically non-existent, meaning that the UK will suffer an acute-on-chronic (or actually acute-on-acute) economic crash after the end of 2020.

What is worse is that upwards of 65% of the UK population (i.e. plenty of those who voted to leave too) want the negotiation period to be extended. But apparently the will of the people isn't as important as it used to be back in the heady golden years of 2016-19.

Leavers arguing that this is yet another desperate attempt on the part of remainers to prevent Brexit don't appear to be quite up-to-date with reality (not that that's a surprise), particularly the singular fact that we have already left (tant pis).

@newbie111 that would be a report written by the very same people who predicted that a vote (i.e. just the turmoil following the vote) to leave would result in an instant recession with 500,000 jobs lost. That never happened, did it?

I'll take anything George Osborne's Treasury said with a very large pinch of salt.

I think it would be madness to extend the Transition period in any shape or form. The economies of all European countries including our own are going to be stuffed after this. As one of three or four major contributors, our contributions will go through the roof. That money is better spent at home.

This pandemic has shown that the EU are as much use in a crisis as a chocolate teapot. Their totally inflexibility really Kyboshes things. They gave out funding to help countries effected by this virus. Hungary got 3 times as much money as Italy. Hungary with a much smaller population and only about 100 deaths, compared with the thousands of Italian deaths. However that’s how they do their sums, so that’s how it was allocated.

We are out by the 31st of December. It can’t come soon enough for me.

I think most news outlets can cope with reporting on more than a single story.
Yet they don't seem to do so except for the Daily Express who reports on it every day.

I think it would be madness to extend the Transition period in any shape or form. The economies of all European countries including our own are going to be stuffed after this. As one of three or four major contributors, our contributions will go through the roof. That money is better spent at home.
This.

The EU is fucked. They don't even give a toss about helping Italy - one of their members. We have left and we need to forge on with or without a trade deal. They will be left behind, not us. WTO terms are fine with me.

Italy is going to need a massive bailout after this, if the transition was extended we'd be liable for a contribution.

No we absolutely would not. The UK is not "liable" for Eurozone Bailouts. While our membership fees do go into the pot, we are essentially insured against the bailed out countries defaulting on the loans and would be compensated in the event of non re-payment.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36456277

Who is going to bail out Italy?

Not the UK (see above).

As usual Brexit supporters are absolutely entitled to their own opinions. You are not entitled to your own facts.

Is the UK also not going to require a "massive bailout" too? Where will that be coming from? (Genuine question) I wonder what terms we would get from the World Bank / IMF as a newly independent nation with essentially no credit history.

@DdraigGoch

The sterling fell by 20% immediately after the vote (and remains at ~11% below pre-vote levels) and UK's GDP growth has been affected since. Economists have calculated the impact since the vote has been approximately 2% of GDP.

cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12454

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week

@NotEverythingIsBlackandWhite You lost me at Daily Express. Every thing you now say is just noise.

@MasakaBuzz Yes, and while we sit on those contributions, our economy can take a beating as we've left our largest market.

Dear Business

You have been fucked up by the pandemic. Your staff and customers are worried about money and finances so are reluctant to spend. We haven't had time to prepare any kind of deal.

But we are going to leave without a deal because of a principle.

Love Boris and Dom

I wonder what terms we would get from the World Bank / IMF as a newly independent nation with essentially no credit history.
@TimeFlysWhenYoureHavingRum you make that sound as if we are a colony gaining independence from an Empire rather than a sovereign nation leaving a customs block. How apt.

it really doesn't take long for most countries to negotiate a trade deal.
grin Words fail me grin
You can scoff but it's true. Most countries thrash out trade deals in a few months. The EU traditionally drags them out for years because it has to take into account a multitude of vested interests, even Wallonia with its population of a mere 3.6 million can veto a deal. In the words of Sir Humphrey Appleby, "the more members it has, the more futile and impotent it becomes".

@chomalungma

You forgot:

Ps. Don't worry about us. We've diversified our investments, re-domiciled our companies to European locations and have bet against the economy and sterling.

Good luck and don't forget the vaseline. Rule Britannia!

Just looking at that Osborne document in the link;

"EU FTAs currently under negotiation will be particularly significant for the UK. For example, the US is the UK’s largest individual trade partner outside the EU (accounting for 17% of UK exports). Once agreed, the EU-US FTA is expected to boost UK exports by £18 billion and UK GDP by up to £10 billion."

Not much happening on the EU-US FTA.

The sterling fell by 20% immediately after the vote (and remains at ~11% below pre-vote levels) and UK's GDP growth has been affected since. Economists have calculated the impact since the vote has been approximately 2% of GDP.
So not quite the crushing recession predicted in 2016 then. Our currency was overvalued and needed to come down anyway. I agree with the assessment that growth has been held back by 0.5% per year while the uncertainty has been ongoing. That is all the more reason to get on and leave to remove this uncertainty.

@DdraigGoch

"Most countries thrash out trade deals in a few months"

This usually happens when one party is desperate and capitulates to the demands of the other. In other instances, serious negotiations are required and I'd rather countries take their time and not back down on workers rights, healthcare, food standards etc. which all are contentious topics in an all encompassing trade deal

I want the opposition to be kicking up more of a storm over this. Our future is very bleak as things stand.

@DdraigGoch "Our currency was overvalued and needed to come down anyway"

What? Why do you believe that?

@DdraigGoch "So not quite the crushing recession predicted in 2016 then"

Again, Despite my personal ideology, I really would like Brexit to happen in the hardest form possible because it will show people like you the consequences of what you are wishing for. Without this, everything is an academic debate.

I could spend hours explaining to you why the economy didn't go into recession immediately after the vote but you wouldn't accept it any way.

I do wonder what affect his illness will have had on Boris Johnson and his attitudes towards Brexit etc now?

Will he become more hesitant and unsure?

Boris was asked about Brexit just before he got sick. He said no extension and negotiations are carrying on as usual.
There's a lot of complicated boring stuff to get through and Barnier and Boris wouldn't get involved with that. The negotiating teams are probably relieved not to be continually asked by the media for updates.

21 April -

"The EU Parliament passed a resolution on EU measures against the COVID-19 crisis, which, among other things, advocates for “recovery bonds” guaranteed by the EU budget."

"The resolution is clear that “recovery bonds” should definitely not be used to pool existing debt, but to mutualise debt generated by future investments to recover from the coronavirus crisis. And they would be guaranteed by the common EU budget."

"However, since money would be coming from national contributions to the EU budget, richer countries like Germany would end up paying more, according to the relative size of their economy."

www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/ccoronabonds-vs-recovery-bonds-where-does-germany-stand/

@TimeFlysWhenYoureHavingRum you make that sound as if we are a colony gaining independence from an Empire rather than a sovereign nation leaving a customs block. How apt.

Yes - I was deliberately using that language as I have seen it endlessly used in the context of arguments about our so-called "loss of sovereignty". Many seem to believe that Brexit was about "taking back control" from some nebulous oppressor. I was hoping to illustrate that that argument cuts both ways.

You are quite right though - it is a misleading way of framing things as we indeed are and always have been a sovereign nation. I'm pleased we agree!

All the economic predictions they are using in their negotiations are meaningless at the moment.

The economy is fucked.
So why not fuck it even more.

Our currency was overvalued and needed to come down anyway
What? Why do you believe that?

Full Fact -

"In February, the International Monetary Fund said the sterling was overvalued by somewhere between 5% and 15% in 2015. Just before the referendum, the IMF put the over-valuation slightly higher, saying that sterling was overvalued by between 5% and 20% in 2015. Other experts, like the former governor of the Bank of England and the IMF, have agreed that sterling was overvalued."

fullfact.org/economy/exchange-rates-and-imf/

The traffic through Dover will be greatly reduced of course - fewer tourists and less chance of hold ups. Germany might be the victim of its own success in 12 months time - influx of economic migrants from other EU countries.