To wonder how schools can realistically reopen when there is still a killer virus about with no vaccine?

[JustCantShakeIt]

I’m not talking about them reopening now, in May or June or even September.

Who is prepared to send their DC into a school with hundreds of other DC, where social distancing and keeping a germ free environment is literally impossible, even with the best wills in the world, when there is a life threatening disease floating about which is highly transmittable and you have no guarantee it won’t make your DC severely ill or die.

Social distancing just between parents will be impossible at my DC’s school of over 500 where we all have to wait outside the main gates at pick up time.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m desperate for schools to reopen before my DC turn completely feral, but I don’t see how that can happen until we have a vaccine. We’re being told to stay home and keep our distance now due to the risk, the risk will be the same next month or in 5 months won’t it?

@LaurieMarlow Okay I will let my kids starve to death. Is that what you want me to say?
The truth is I can quit work. My DP can work from home and is doing so, but won't be allowed to as soon as lock down ends. Nearly everyone I know is still working. The idea most people are not working is simply not true. It is largely people in retail and the leisure and travel industry not working. And ONS bears this out. The economy is still happening but at a reduced rate. But without DP working the yes we would all starve. What kind of choice is that? So if lock down ends he will need to go back in, and my kids risk their mother dying.

I'll happily keep mine off until a vaccine/better treatment.

Even if that’s 2 years away?

I take it they aren’t scheduled to be doing important exams in that time?

@LaurieMarlow So you are not working at the moment?

I get that there is a massive risk to teachers (or there families) and like the millions of other families they are going to have to make a decision whether or not to continue to shield.

But the thing is, sooner or later we are going to have to go back to some sort of normal and based on that teachers and all other school staff are going to have to make a decision on whether they can put themselves in that position.

I really think if they say schools are open in May (for example) there should be something in place for all schools to see if they are able to open properly, based on if they have the teachers, then maybe something in place to redeploy staff that can to other schools, till the Summer holidays and then teachers should make a decision on what to do come August.

I don't think we can say lets get the schools open in May and let parents make the decision to send their children but not let the teachers make the same decision.

Okay I will let my kids starve to death. Is that what you want me to say?

Well you seem happy for me to do that, so

So you are not working at the moment

I am. Im on less than 50% salary. That can’t last. I’ll be very lucky to have a job in 2 months.

It’s not realistic to think that schools or even businesses should stay shut until there are no more cases or there is a vaccine.

Unfortunately as hard as it is to contemplate it does have to be a balance between saving some lives and the economy. Because the economy cannot cope with long term closure. The statistics so far are predicting that a three month lockdown would decrease the economy by 35%. Longer than that would bankrupt the country and then the loss of life is likely to be greater than that due to Corona because of increased suicide and so on.

Throughout this whole crisis people on here have been saying that we’re three weeks behind Italy. And Italy is starting to come out of lockdown now. There are still some restrictions but they are being lifted.

Therefore it stands to reason that the UK will come out of lockdown at the beginning of May, and as part of that the re-opening of schools with perhaps the exception of y11 and 13 needs to be considered.

At the end of the day we are all going to be at risk for a long time. The lockdown was never to stop the virus, it was to slow its progression in order for the health service to cope.

I am at risk. I have been told that if I catch the virus I will likely die, although I am not considered vulnerable enough to be shielded or entitled to priority delivery slots from the supermarkets even though I can’t go out.

But it has to be up to me to take precautions to protect myself where possible while acknowledging that for most life does have to return to some normality sooner rather than later.

Our parents and grandparents lived with schools being open when there were killer viruses without vaccines around, eg polio and measles.

They just had to live with the risk, and so might we.

@LaurieMarlow Most people I know are still working.

If it were possible, I would be willing to send my kids back to school as neither they nor anyone in our house is high risk, but I totally understand why other people wouldn't want to do that. I do get the staffing problem though, as obviously you will get some adults off for weeks... and not to mention the 'viral load' thing, which is perhaps the greatest problem if a lot of kids are carrying it but asymptomatic.

I imagine they might start my testing everyone's temp everywhere as they are doing in Asia. It's not perfect but it presumably will weed out some risks.

I kind of agree with the idea that they just have to open at some time - totally economic shutdown until a vaccine also costs lives in a different way. Hopefully by September, new info will be available to help us manage risks and improve hospital treatment, which will allow for more openness.

Nearly everyone I know is still working

How many on furlough? How many on reduced hours.

The figures speak for themselves. You can argue against them all you want, but you just look like a fool.

No lots of schools closed during polio epidemic, my grandparents have told me about this.

Very few people I know are still working. DH is, luckily. A large number of my friends are/were self employed and can’t continue. Many of them slip through the gaps to get government help. Another large number of my friends have been furloughed, but it’s looking likely that furlough will become redundancy if that goes on much longer.

Most people I know are still working.

So you think the economy is functioning as normal?

Have you read ANYTHING about the economic impact of this? At all?

@LaurieMarlow For the third time, are you still working?
And yes the people I know are working. Those on furlough I am counting as not working. And some are working more hours than normal. Working from home or going out to work. A lot of jobs are covered under key workers and a lot of people can work from home.

I’ve answered your question

You think the economy is functioning normally then, is that right?

@LaurieMarlow Of course the economy has been very affected. And some employers are furloughing rather than struggling on and paying staff when they were going to.

@justanotherneighinparadise
how long do you honestly think you can lock the vulnerable up for until 80% of the population get it assuming the current 4% figure is somewhere near correct?

As long as it takes. The alternative is to lock up EVERYONE till they come up with a vaccine.
You don't have an alternative. None of this is an ideal situation. People are going to have to compromise. A bunch of people who will not be affected by this are having to be in lockdown to slow the rate of infection. The least the vulnerable can do is stay safe till it's all over.

I think the questions asked in the NEUs letter are very sensible:

To The Prime Minister: We, the undersigned, oppose any re-opening of schools before it is safe to do so. As a matter of urgency and certainly well before any proposal to re-open schools is published, please can you share with teachers and parents: Your modelling of the increased number of cases and mortalities amongst children, their parents, carers and extended families, and their teachers and support staff as a result of the re-opening of schools. Whether such modelling is based on some notion that social distancing could be implemented in schools (we ask this because many teachers think this would be a foolhardy assumption)? Would your modelling be based on concrete plans to have regular testing of children and staff, availability of appropriate PPE and enhanced levels of cleaning - with all of which we are currently experiencing severe difficulties? Whether your modelling would include plans for children and staff in vulnerable health categories, or living with people in vulnerable health categories not to be in school or college? Your latest evidence on which people are most vulnerable to permanent consequences or death from the virus, for example the evidence of the impact on those who live in crowded accommodation, those with different comorbidities, those from different ethnic groups and of different ages and both sexes. Are you developing plans for extensive testing, contact tracing and quarantine in society as a whole? Teachers see that countries successfully implementing such strategies have many fewer cases and many many fewer mortalities than we do in the UK. Would you intend these plans be in place well before schools are re-opened, which seems essential to us? If you are not developing such plans what is your overall approach and is it dependent on an assumption that those who have had the virus are then immune?

Can you join me and take action? Click here: actionnetwork.org/forms/open-schools-when-it-is-safe?source=email&

Thanks!

The key here is in the word I because while someone may know only people who are still working that is not a reflection on society.

Most people, anyone who works in a shop which isn’t a supermarket for instance, are furlowed, and that cannot carry on indefinitely so at some point those people will have to face redundancy.

Most people who work in restaurants have been released in order that they can claim benefits, but with the promise that they will be re-hired when things change. But if things won’t change those restaurants will go out of business and those people will become a part of the predicted 10% unemployed after three months.

Many small businesses have had to close altogether, some will already have ceased trading.

The list goes on and it is not sustainable.

@alloutoffucks

You have massively under estimated the amount of industries that have been effected

retail and the leisure and travel industry

You missed out the entertainment industry, most of which are freelance and are not entitled to anything, most now are having to use their tax money in the hope they can make it back up.

Both Retail and Leisure covers a massive amount of businesses, food, hotels, shops, pubs, hairdressers, nails, waxing the list goes on and on.

Most of which were struggling already, you might not know anyone who has been affected but that is a lot of my friends and family in those industries some of which are not going to be entitled to anything other than UC, which is a five week wait and for some it is not going cover their expenses.

Near enough everyone I know has either been furloughed or not working, just because everyone you know is still working doesn't mean its not affecting millions of people

Of course the economy has been very affected.

Great, we’re making progress. What do you think a 35% reduction means in terms of people’s living standards?

And some employers are furloughing rather than struggling on and paying staff when they were going to.

And many have just laid them off. And furlough only lasts another month and we’ll see many, many more redundancies then. And furlough is government money, not privately generated money, so not tax revenues are way down.

Employment is projected to hit 10%. I don’t think people have any conception of how catastrophic that would be. The last time it was that high was the early 80s and large areas of the country have never recovered.