To think another great Depression is coming?

[littleblackdress04]

Spoke to a surveyor friend yesterday - he said they can’t value houses at the moment as they think they could lose up to 50% of their value. Also read an article about how another Great Depression is coming.

Is it the re-set we need as a world? The end of billionaires when millions have no food? What will the societal impact be?

I personally hope it’s a fairer, kinder society where everyone gets their basic needs met

"Their savings will be depleted so no backup. They’ll be a lot more cautious about spending in general.

There will be little confidence in the travel industry for a long time to come, that’s fucked for quite some time."

I guess we'll see in 6 months.

I welcome the reset too OP I think it is long overdue. Gone are the days of hearing or reading about those in poor situations, many have now found themselves in such situations. The way many companies have turned their backs on their employees is eye watering.

House prices are a joke and I think it will be good to see a huge chunk lobbed off prices, it means as a first time buyer I will get a home for a realistic price. Yes people will lose value but everyone will be in the same boat.

The societal impact of this is yet to be chartered, but we are still in the honeymoon phase, we’ve yet to get past that and once we do, then we will see how resilient and steadfast people truly are. I’m expecting riots and looting in large cities, the homeless and drug addicts are already teetering on the brink of despair, then the house of cards starts to fall. Hopefully the army is deployed to maintain law and order but the road will be very bumpy. Interesting times.

I find accepting what is happening makes the inevitable easier to process. It will be tough but we will prevail.

The government bailouts are just a sticking plaster. What’s the timeframe again? There’s no way businesses will be ready to pick up the slack on three months or whatever, so loads of people currently furloughed will be laid off quite soon.

"assuming you have a job to go back to"

Well if not, hopefully there will be a brutal recession so I can be given a universal income ;)

@SammyMommy oh here we go ‘no magic money tree’ of course! Magic money tree to bail out the banks but not for people or to create a better, fairer society that helps people grow and achieve their potential

I think it’s impossible to predict how this recession will go. It’s not been caused or driven by economic factors, but by the sudden, forced, shutdown of swathes of the previously ok economy. Only some sectors though - others are still hanging on, or in some cases even prospering. And hopefully those shutdown sectors will relatively soon be permitted to recover.

Yes, hundreds of thousands of people signed up for universal credit recently. But it’s not because the economy couldn’t support their jobs any more, it’s because their jobs were suddenly shutdown by external factors. Once those industries are permitted to trade again, those jobs should gradually reappear. People will have to be flexible with their work though, and realise they may not be able to go back to exactly the same job that they left.

Bovary there will be ramifications but I gave examples of what was not shut down.

If house prices go down 50% my mortgage doesn't so I won't be selling
Me neither. As long as people can pay their mortgages they will just sit tight and not sell for less than they paid. House prices only drop when there are forced sellers, i.e. when people have lost their jobs and can’t pay their mortgages. And young people are more likely to lose their jobs than older people. If DH’s employer makes people redundant it won’t be 45yo DH, it will be his assistants and juniors in their 20s. Because DH could take over their workload but they couldn’t take over his.

there will be little confidence in the travel industry for a long time to come, that’s fucked for quite some time. Childcare will suffer as many people will be on reduced hours/laid off. I think retail as a leisure pursuit is something that will be radically rethought.

I think travel is the most resolutely fucked tbh. Its relatively big "single item" expenditure, and the negative press of people being stranded abroad will be hard to shake until this calms down globally. I don't think retail will be as bad simply because buying stuff is less of a financial commitment than booking a holiday.

I think childcare will be very varied by region. I wouldn't want to be running a childcare business near Heathrow, but in an area with lots of manufacturing it might be less drastic.

The Great Depression was basically the result of problems within the economy - the current situation is a problem external to the economy.

So - it will obviously have a very significant impact on the economy - but it won't have changed the basic structure of the economy. So - once lock down is over - then to a certain extent the economy should simply restart. Obviously it wont happen quite that cleanly and there will be significant levels of debt to deal with as well as damage to significant parts of the economy - but its a totally different situation.

My view is that there will be a significant recession but there will be a recovery within a relatively quick time. There won't be a major rehaul of economic, social or political structures.

House prices crashing will be no bad thing. People will still have houses to live in as long as they have jobs.
When the food prices go through the roof then we’re in trouble. That will really hit the poor If life feels miserable it drags the country down further.

Fish my only concern is that many of the affected businesses will not be able to trade as before because our way of life will have to change in order to keep this virus from killing millions. I truly can not imagine being able to sit in a cinema, restaurant, bar, theatre, cafe, wander around a clothing store or indoor play area for the next few years. Seriously.

That’s the elephant in the room, the fact this until there is a proven vaccine to eradicate this disease then life as we knew it is paused indefinitely.

Whilst we are here.....

Brexit.....
Transition period

Runs...........

Hopefully they void Brexit, maybe this is the golden ticket out of that hell hole?

Bovary there will be ramifications but I gave examples of what was not shut down

Nope. You did not. Name one country 'in Asia' which is functioning as normal? There is an exodus in India not seen since partition.

I truly can not imagine being able to sit in a cinema, restaurant, bar, theatre, cafe, wander around a clothing store or indoor play area for the next few years.

Really? I can. In fact most people I know are absolutely gagging to get out of lockdown and go straight to the nearest bar/shop/spa/cinema. Most young people in London will do just that.

"That’s the elephant in the room, the fact this until there is a proven vaccine to eradicate this disease then life as we knew it is paused indefinitely."

Masks and gloves? Keeping the numbers under NHS capacity? The virus just dying off naturally? People getting an immunity? Testing and tracing? The Nobel prize Michael Levitt being right and this will be short lived?

then to a certain extent the economy should simply restart.

This is very much dependent on timescale. I’d shutdown lasts a month or so, yes perhaps.

However if it drags on many, many months then more debts mount, more businesses fail, spending becomes more and more contracted and soon enough we’re in such a deep hole it will take us a long long time to get out.

Don't talk it up. Careless words cost lives y'know?

The Great Depression was basically the result of problems within the economy - the current situation is a problem external to the economy Also it was fuelled by everyone taking out their money - consumer spending and confidence bottomed out - how it is managed this time round will play a huge part in what happens. Economists are aware of this. Detailed analysis of how recovery could be achieved and losses mitigated and guidance for everyone would be better than doom and gloom.

House prices crashing will be no bad thing. People will still have houses to live in as long as they have jobs.
The lack of jobs is what makes house prices crash. You can’t have one without the other.

"Really? I can. In fact most people I know are absolutely gagging to get out of lockdown and go straight to the nearest bar/shop/spa/cinema. Most young people in London will do just that."

People HAD to be put in lockdown for them to stop filling the pubs/cinema/travel. Some people are still trying to break the rules. The second people are told they can go out, they will rush...

Beijing let me clarify, I can personally imagine myself eating in a restaurant what I mean is I can not see it be allowed. Social distancing will be the sacrifice for a lockdown lift, leisure activities will still be off limits for a LONG time. Bars and Clubs will not reopen for the next year if not longer.

I find it disgusting that some people are licking their chops in hope that this global tragedy means they will be supported and get more free shit.

I had a look on rightmove today, there has been as many houses going up for sale by me as there ever was. No change in price