Active discussions

Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Talk
AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To think another great Depression is coming?

326 replies

littleblackdress04 · 03/04/2020 17:42

Spoke to a surveyor friend yesterday - he said they can’t value houses at the moment as they think they could lose up to 50% of their value. Also read an article about how another Great Depression is coming.

Is it the re-set we need as a world? The end of billionaires when millions have no food? What will the societal impact be?

I personally hope it’s a fairer, kinder society where everyone gets their basic needs met

OP posts:
BeijingBikini · 03/04/2020 21:35

The second people are told they can go out, they will rush...

I can already imagine the mass-exodus from our street into the High Street the minute Boris announces lockdown is over. Be shocked all you want but most people are selfish and will not lock themselves down for "the greater good" unless they are explicitly told to. People want to have fun with their friends and go for coffees and never think they will be the unlucky ones. Look at Cheltenham, Crufts, football.

Wehttam · 03/04/2020 21:36

All reasons why until the vaccine is released, those restrictions will remain in place.

BeijingBikini · 03/04/2020 21:37

Social distancing will be the sacrifice for a lockdown lift, leisure activities will still be off limits for a LONG time. Bars and Clubs will not reopen for the next year if not longer.

You might be right to some extent but I don't think it will be as long as a year, because the government can't afford all those job bailouts. I think bars/clubs/cafes will be allowed to open but maybe with some cap on numbers or spacing.

StatisticallyChallenged · 03/04/2020 21:37

This dream of the house price crash that makes it easy for ftb is really unlikely imo. The vast majority of people I know who are keen to buy will, for various reasons, be the ones hardest hit jobs wise.

Original poster
littleblackdress04 · 03/04/2020 21:37

@ZenDay oh do jog on. No one has said that at all- in fact, it’s the total opposite. It’s trying to create a society where 3 million kids aren’t living in poverty and can reach their potential instead of worrying where the next meal is coming from 🙄

OP posts:
BeijingBikini · 03/04/2020 21:37

I just hope they re-open hairdressers before 2021, or we're all going to look like the guy from Jumanji....

Wehttam · 03/04/2020 21:38

I can’t see the government having any choice but to keep the bailouts going. If this is ongoing globally then we are as stuck in this as our neighbours abroad.

Petiolaris · 03/04/2020 21:39

This dream of the house price crash that makes it easy for ftb is really unlikely imo
I love how people think that homeowners will be in dire financial straits and forced to sell their houses cheap, while FTB will be miraculously unaffected and will still have jobs and be able to get mortgages. It’s very naive.

JaceLancs · 03/04/2020 21:39

Yes we will have a depressed economy which will then be followed by a boom time
It’s an economic cycle which endlessly repeats
The only difference is the depths of the peaks and troughs

BeijingBikini · 03/04/2020 21:40

They might not be able to afford it after a while - our credit rating has already been downgraded twice since we started the crazy borrowing. There has to be a limit to how much they can borrow/print, though my knowledge of economics is hazy.

liberoncolours · 03/04/2020 21:41

bovary i said there isn't total global shut down - eg Asia is recovering and gave another example of various industries being supported in other countries. I didn't say economies were functioning as normal.

Wehttam · 03/04/2020 21:41

Also Beijing you could be right about some opening with caps on numbers but once the general populace fuck that up then the government will have no choice but to close them down again. Compliance is key here and unfortunately a large chunk of our fellow Brits are unable to comply. It will be our undoing that we don’t learn lessons from this first lockdown.

BovaryX · 03/04/2020 21:42

So if there is money now- why not money to pay people enough money to get out of poverty? And live decent lives and reach their potential?

There isn't money now. There is a mountain of debt. By the way? How do you define 'enough money?'

BeijingBikini · 03/04/2020 21:43

This dream of the house price crash that makes it easy for ftb is really unlikely imo

Indeed - we're FTBs with a decent deposit, but my job in travel is on furlough and I strongly suspect that there'll either be redundancies after the 3 months, or part-time, because I can't see how we'll just re-start the entire holiday program in June like nothing happened.

We're about to pull out of our house purchase because I'm not comfortable with the mortgage amount just on one salary. Also, lots of banks are suspending mortgages with

Original poster
littleblackdress04 · 03/04/2020 21:44

@BovaryX well I guess that’s where there needs to be research. How did the government come up with the 2500 furloughed number? Or the 94 a week statutory sick pay?

OP posts:
BovaryX · 03/04/2020 21:44

Asia is recovering

Can you provide a link?

Original poster
littleblackdress04 · 03/04/2020 21:45

@BeijingBikini if banks are asking for 40% deposit, that’s because they are pricing in big falls too

OP posts:
BovaryX · 03/04/2020 21:45

How did the government come up with the 2500 furloughed number? Or the 94 a week statutory sick pay?

I imagine they plucked it out of the air.

Sammymommy · 03/04/2020 21:47

"All reasons why until the vaccine is released, those restrictions will remain in place."

No, they won't people will just go out at some point,. Start to see each other. Riot. Cut throats. It can't possibly last more than 3 months. That is the reason they are starting to up their game with the testings.

FFSFFSFFS · 03/04/2020 21:47

The banks are asking for 40% deposits because they're not doing physical valuations - they're doing desktop valuations. So they are taking a risk based approach. If there is a notable error with a desk top valuation then there's enough equity built in to manage the risk.

StatisticallyChallenged · 03/04/2020 21:48

That's exactly it BeijingBikini. Most couples i know have one income already affected or likely to be. The ones who don't are already homeowners.

The folk who can scoop up cheap property will be wealthy btl/ future btl. Not the young couple getting started

Tootletum · 03/04/2020 21:48

It will be a depression in all but name. Can't see it making richer people poorer though, quite the opposite. In a crisis you need assets to ride out the storm. And if you have them, you come back with assets into a world that you can pretty much buy up.

Wehttam · 03/04/2020 21:49

Sammy people will go out and the army will send them back in. Just wait for that Easter egg..... also do you post under the Mocha name too? Wondered how much you get paid for challenging everyone......

StatisticallyChallenged · 03/04/2020 21:49

That would be my interpretation re the banks and valuations- desktop are shaky at best so they need a huge margin for error

BeijingBikini · 03/04/2020 21:49

Yes I suspect they must be pricing in big falls, so maybe we could have that magic 40% after all.

I do think houses have got ridiculously overpriced - if it takes 2 people with STEM degrees working in professional jobs, living in a tiny flat and living really frugally, 4 years to save a 15-20% deposit for a 2 bedroom flat.......how the hell are people on minimum wage ever meant to get on the housing ladder? It's all well and good saying "Move up North" but not everyone wants to leave their family behind, and the areas with cheapest housing usually have few jobs.