To think another great Depression is coming?

[littleblackdress04]

Spoke to a surveyor friend yesterday - he said they can’t value houses at the moment as they think they could lose up to 50% of their value. Also read an article about how another Great Depression is coming.

Is it the re-set we need as a world? The end of billionaires when millions have no food? What will the societal impact be?

I personally hope it’s a fairer, kinder society where everyone gets their basic needs met

You just failed to explained how recession would cause poor people to get more money?

There will be a recession. It will be structurally different from most recent recessions so it’s not clear how bad it will be (trade off between cost of interventions now, how effective they are in protecting good businesses for the longer term, and what happens globally).

What is absolutely certain is there are no social benefits to a recession. None.

I don’t remember the World being changed much after the Hong Kong flu in 1968

Er, in 1968 at the end of a turbulent, transformative decade, the French were manning the barricades, the Americans were in Vietnam and London was booming. There is absolutey zero comparison to this global lockdown. When the whole planet is under house arrest.

Bovary there isn't total global shut down - eg Asia is recovering, in France there is a long list of shops permitted to stay open last time i looked, construction is permitted to continue - and other countries the same - the focus is on people distancing not total shutdown. Re wipeout what industries in particular are you thinking?

acknowledge that the world is hugely unequal and maybe something like this would be a chance to level the playing field in some way

I suggest you look at the scenes in India. You know. Instead of Hemel Hempstead.

I did mention Universal basic income earlier on in my post. And actually, you could argue that socialism has just rescued capitalism

People are saving money and people are desperate to spend it.

In the very short term this might be the case. But those savings will disappear rapidly as the job losses mount up.

In Ireland, they’re talking about potentially 20% employment and more. That’s devastating.

@LaurieMarlow yes, and in Italy where there is a lot of social unrest too for the same reasons- job loss, no money, very little state help etc

"I did mention Universal basic income earlier on in my post". Where would the money come from? Universal Income, you mean the rich would get it too? Or if you earn more than a certain amount, you don't receive the money (we could call it Universal Credit maybe?)

Tourism, events, leisure, large chunks of retail, childcare are all fairly badly fucked right now. Transport not in great shape, construction taking a hammering, hair and beauty (lots of small businesses) pretty destroyed. There are many industries which will struggle to survive if good support doesn't materialise fast.

The mc double income wfh have lost nothing.

That’s bollocks for starters, lots of mc jobs have already been lost and many more will follow.

There really isn't. The Imperial paper that changed the direction of the govt said that each time the lockdown was lifted it would come back, and said that suppression required a whole wave of lockdowns for 12-18 months while we wait for a vaccine. 'Flattening the curve' is not actually a nice slow process unless we're still happy to have a lot of people die I don't think the paper did say what you are saying - it was saying there might be a second wave. It also said it was worst case scenario, though, and there are other variables. Scientists from Asia have not said it is doom and gloom, they have said it is not possible to be sure, not possible to predict how the virus will behave - but that it is possible that there will be suppression and the various other mitigating scenarios. They have said be prepared for a second wave - and the "prepared" bit is the key thing - testing early, tracking as much as is feasible in our society, and beds and ventilators are more in place now than a couple of months ago. It isn't possible to know - viruses do burn themselves out/become less deadly.

"Tourism, events, leisure, large chunks of retail, childcare are all fairly badly fucked right now."

People will spend on that like crazy once they can. Which won't be in 18 months, whatever the Debbie Downers insist on saying.

"You know, I'm not sure this Austrian Archduke business is going to be over by Christmas..."

"Ok Gloomer, whatevs, I'm off to tour Europe, laterz"

Bovary there isn't total global shut down

Er, yes. There is. Borders closed. Flights cancelled. Tourism over. Industry shut down. The remittances from expat workers in the ME to the Philippines, India, Nepal paused. Do you understand the global ramifications of this virus?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/india-wracked-by-greatest-exodus-since-partition-due-to-coronavirus

@sammymommy what, all those people relying on food banks? And the 950, 000 that signed on for universal credit last week - something never seen before. Honestly, where do you think all these people in insecure jobs are going to get all this money to manically spend when they are let out of lockdown? The millions of families that can barely feed their kids.

Yea, I am sure they would love to be called ‘Debbie downers’- you post is insulting to be honest

You just failed to explained how recession would cause poor people to get more money?

people are confusing their wish for reality!

I would hope so, which is why I think a huge amount hinges on businesses being supported to survive. If folk go back to their old job, and their favourite pub and restaurant and shop are still there, and their kid's after school care is still there, then the picture could be pretty positive.

Too many businesses down and it changes dramatically

People will spend on that like crazy once they can

Do you think some people might be paranoid about this happening again and take steps to save more money instead of spending it?

@justiin- but the government just bailed out the entire private sector with public money. So if there is money now- why not money to pay people enough money to get out of poverty? And live decent lives and reach their potential?

littleblackdress04 I signed for the Universal credit, I will be able to go back to work the day the lockdown is lifted. Like many will. In Restaurants, gyms, pubs, and many more sectors. The people who signed for UC are not all gonna need it forever.

Yes, some people will have lost their job long term, but not everyone. But be dramatic all you want if it somehow helps you deal with what we are going through..

People will spend on that like crazy once they can. Which won't be in 18 months, whatever the Debbie Downers insist on saying.

No they won’t.

Their savings will be depleted so no backup. They’ll be a lot more cautious about spending in general.

There will be little confidence in the travel industry for a long time to come, that’s fucked for quite some time. Childcare will suffer as many people will be on reduced hours/laid off. I think retail as a leisure pursuit is something that will be radically rethought.

Bars/restaurants will get a bit of a resurgence once lockdown is over, but that’s just the ones that manage to stay afloat. It may not last long either.

I work in a bank, and we are currently swamped by people calling in who are struggling and scared, from all walks of life. A lot of business owners are absolutely desperate, trying not only to save their business, but also concerned about their employees and what will be left at the end of all this. It’s heart breaking.

"but the government just bailed out the entire private sector with public money. So if there is money now- why not money to pay people enough money to get out of poverty? And live decent lives and reach their potential?"

They will get that money back by taxing people more in the future. It's not free money they grew on trees suddenly...

@Sammymommy assuming you have a job to go back to