To think another great Depression is coming?

[littleblackdress04]

Spoke to a surveyor friend yesterday - he said they can’t value houses at the moment as they think they could lose up to 50% of their value. Also read an article about how another Great Depression is coming.

Is it the re-set we need as a world? The end of billionaires when millions have no food? What will the societal impact be?

I personally hope it’s a fairer, kinder society where everyone gets their basic needs met

@sammymommy- yes, it’s called a discussion. I am not trying to predict the future- I am having a discussion based on some articles by economists that I have read????? Isn’t that what this forum is for?

What a load of rubbish. I’ve got three requirements on at the moment for £100,000 plus roles as a recruiter- £60,000 plus VAT in fees that I shall pump straight into the economy. This is a blip

For those who try to predict what will happen comparing it to the past, remember that we never faced a situation where people have been so deprived of freedom (massive lockdown and fear/anxiety rarely known). Don't under estimate human nature and the need to go back to a normal they knew/celebrate after a period of lack when abundance (or the feeling of it) comes back. Let it surprise you.

If it happens to suck, it will be soon enough then to worry about it. Nothing we can do now.

It WILL happen is not a discussion, it is prediction. I don't know what your friend told you. You don't know what will happen. You think that something will happen. I don;t care abotu people saying "I think/I fear/whatever this will happen". I am beyond exhausted of people pretending they know/have inside knowledge that every horrible thing possible will happen.

and those that are wishing for 50% drops in property prices just so they can get on the leader, shame on you for wishing misery on others for your benefit!

cough hypocrite cough 🙄

You’re ok in your owned home are ya? What about working class people who can’t afford it? High rents, couldn’t dream of saving a deposit. Fuck em, as long as the price of your house doesn’t go down? Keep them where they belong?

YANBU OP. I don’t know how long or how badly this is going to effect the economy, no one does. But if anyone thinks we’re just going to bounce back once the virus is under control is DELUDED.

At the moment a huge proportion of the country is holding it's financial breath. Companies are waiting for support to materialise. Individuals either can't spent (due to job losses and lack of opportunity) or won't spend (due to fear and uncertainty). So everything is on a go slow and money isn't circulating. But that's due to a single shock rather than a more systematic issue so it is hard to say how this will play out.

It largely depends on how many businesses are allowed to fail IMO. If businesses survive and people go back to their old jobs then I don't think it will be that prolonged. Life will rapidly feel familiar again and old habits will emerge.

If a fair number of businesses collapse and employment stays significantly higher then the situation will be very different.

I'm with PicsInRed

I cannot find the you are deluded button.

Is it the re-set we need as a world?

You reckon the 're -set' the world needed was a global cessation of economic activity? Seriously? Flights grounded. Tourism finished. The planet is under house arrest. The welfare states of Western Europe are racking up trillions in debt to add to their debt mountain while they bankroll people to stay home. But hey. Crank up the printing press. And watch inflation rise. In the world beyond the West, the horrendous effect of this blasted virus is grinding people who are already impoverished into the ground. Those who imagine this will result in 'equality' are delusional. Businesses will go bankrupt, the West will continue to accumulate debt and totalitarian regimes will solidify their control.

50% drops on paper meaning nothing to most people... well it would stitch my ex up and make my day but it won’t mean anyone gets to buy my house

OP - you don't know what is coming any more than anyone else does just cos a friend told you some shit. It sounds like you are revelling in what make other people miserable and I hate to break it to you but it's most likely the only people who will benefit from a downturn are the millionaires and billionaires.

I think "Ok, Gloomer" is going to be the new "OK boomer".

Nicely put.

Recession is rarely an equaliser. The wealthy are most able to exploit the low prices of assets to grow their wealth further in the long term.

If house prices crash as a result of this it won't be to the benefit of young people unable to get on the housing market now, as a huge proportion of them are in lower paid, less stable work. The sort which will vanish quickest

No idea what will happen tbh.

Guessing most of us will be worse off?

I think the economy will recover quicker than you think. Have you not seen all the ‘how much money have you saved since the quarantine’ and the ‘what are you planning to do when this all over’ threads?

People are saving money and people are desperate to spend it.

I don’t remember the World being changed much after the Hong Kong flu in 1968.

80,000 people died then in the U.K.

So many people wishing doom and gloom on these threads,they positively thrive on it.

I am with pishposh and chrissiekeller - if the lockdown successfully flattens curve - and we have nothing to lose by being positive about that - and even better the virus leaves humans/mutates to something less deadly - and we have no reason not to be positive about that too - we will get back to normal. OP the article you linked also said The likelihood of a global recession is now a given, though its duration and severity has yet to reveal itself We don't know for sure. There is every reason to be positive about the curve being flattened quickly if people keep to the lockdown. Consumer confidence will play a part.

I like the idea of the "normal" being "better than normal" though. Macron has promised his health care workers various things.

Put our house on the market in 1990 for 115k, sold it seven years later for 84k which was a loss of 27%.

The banks will not foreclose on us all, who would they sell to? New build may be in the toilet for years though

I think the economy will recover quicker than you think. Have you not seen all the ‘how much money have you saved since the quarantine’ and the ‘what are you planning to do when this all over’ threads?
This is so true! On diesel alone I am saving a fortune.

People are saving money and people are desperate to spend it

That may be so. But four months of global shut down is going to cause significant economic carnage. Industries are facing wipeout. Of course there will be a rebound. But the casualties of this pandemic will be extensive.

There is every reason to be positive about the curve being flattened quickly if people keep to the lockdown

There really isn't. The Imperial paper that changed the direction of the govt said that each time the lockdown was lifted it would come back, and said that suppression required a whole wave of lockdowns for 12-18 months while we wait for a vaccine. 'Flattening the curve' is not actually a nice slow process unless we're still happy to have a lot of people die.
I agree that the economy is screwed (which means many many people are screwed)...

"That may be so. But four months of global shut down is going to cause significant economic carnage. Industries are facing wipeout. Of course there will be a rebound. But the casualties of this pandemic will be extensive"

OK, Gloomer

Its interesting isnt it- I actually thought my original post was positive in the sense that I was trying to acknowledge that the world is hugely unequal and maybe something like this would be a chance to level the playing field in some way- maybe in a more socialist way- but all I have had is lots of posts screaming at me that the end of capitalism (that has failed so many people and created millions of kids living in poverty and aa hugely unequal society) would be a disaster and that I am deluded for suggesting that there might be some shit coming our way. And that all will return to normal without ever asking whether ‘normal’ is even good and whether a consumer society (that is destroying the planet) is a good thing to return to.

But yea, keep on patronising with the ‘ok gloomer’ shite

Lots of billionaires will still have enough money when this is over.

I also think that's where we're heading.