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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Will the virus crisis kill off the EU?

52 replies

leckford · 31/03/2020 09:42

Bearing in mind the sacrosanct free movement has been one of the first casualties, what next?

OP posts:
Seventyone72seventy3 · 31/03/2020 09:44

No. Free movement has nothing to do with this. Countries have always had the choice to close borders in emergencies despite what the British press has led people to believe.

Moomin12345 · 31/03/2020 09:45

Sigh. The EU should have been long dead, remember how it was meant to be crumbling the minute the UK officially leaves? Grin

Seventyone72seventy3 · 31/03/2020 09:45

Free movement is about the right to live and work in other countries. At the moment, travel is limited for any reason, and not just in the EU. You might as well ask will Coronavirus kill holidays?

Reginabambina · 31/03/2020 09:45

Not the virus itself but the economic fall out could be disastrous. The EU’s biggest vulnerability (and has been since the Maastricht treaty) is economic, not political.

Kazzyhoward · 31/03/2020 09:46

I think the virus has highlighted the fatal flaw in free movement and that there'll be travel restrictions in some form for a long time.

The weaker southern European economies such as Italy, Spain and Greece will be absolutely wrecked due to wipe out of their tourist industries and will need massive bail outs from the rest of the EU. It could well spell the end of the Euro currency and could cause the whole EU to implode. It depends on how much the stronger economies such as Germany are prepared to support the weaker ones.

I can really see it all becoming the beginning of the end of the EU as we know it.

TheFaerieQueene · 31/03/2020 09:47

No. It won’t.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 31/03/2020 09:50

No but the UK is about to find out the folly of isolationism and ideological dogma.

Moomin12345 · 31/03/2020 09:51

Some people on here have boundless imaginations. Yes, of course. The end of the bloody world is as we know it. The British Empire will return this April to replace the EU as the latter is about to disappear any minute now (keep dreaming, Brexiters). The holidays abroad will never ever return. There will be no more commercial flights ever. The only hols will be caravan trips in the glorious UK or to other parts of the empire (by teleportation, as cruise ships will also be soon be gone forever).

leckford · 31/03/2020 09:53

Kazzyhoward, having little to do as self isolating I am reading a lot. Italy and Spain were pretty much reliant on tourism and there was already mass youth unemployment in both countries, especially the south of Italy. Spain grows huge quantities of vegetables and the north of Italy is very well off. Italy, although a fabulous country to visit has also the burden of organised crime that will probably benefit from this.

OP posts:
Seventyone72seventy3 · 31/03/2020 10:06

I think the virus has highlighted the fatal flaw in free movement and that there'll be travel restrictions in some form for a long time.

Why? I don't understand what the difference would be. Free movement is about the right to live and work in EU countries. What has that got to do with international travel? Are you saying that we shouldn't ever have the right to travel at all? Not for work, not for leisure? If not, this doesn't really make sense.

Seventyone72seventy3 · 31/03/2020 10:11

There seems to be a fundamental problem in the arguments that Leavers use to talk about international travel after Brexit. On the one hand we are told that we will still be able to travel around the EU just as easily after Brexit ("We all used to travel and work in Europe before we joined" etc etc). On the other hand we are told that the concept of free movement is detrimental to our economy and now our health. Well, they can't both be true - so which is it?

Camomila · 31/03/2020 10:11

Germany is taking in French and Italian Covid 19 patients.

Somewhere in Eastern Europe had an earthquake 2 weeks ago and Italy !! amongst others sent tents etc.

I think the EU will be ok, its not perfect but it seems to be fairly 'together' in a crisis.

MindyStClaire · 31/03/2020 10:24

I think if anything, the remaining countries will become closer and more united as they try and move forward whenever things calm down.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 31/03/2020 10:25

Dont forget the UK could have joined the EU ventilator scheme.

Brefugee · 31/03/2020 10:25

Bearing in mind the sacrosanct free movement has been one of the first casualties, what next?

You haven't grasped the concept of Freedom of Movement, have you? Borders are generally open for truck deliveries. (I live on a border and it's business pretty much as usual for trucks)

People who are living and working in a country other than the one they are a citizen of are pretty much living and working in the same place. That is what FoM is (for people). Tarrifs haven't suddenly appeared between EU countries.

If anything it may strengthen ties - countries are helping each other in procurement of PPE, Germany has taken seriously ill patients from other countries into their hospitals.

The total lack of understanding of what FoM actually means among so many British shows me that they didn't make any effort to actually understand what the EU is and does.

OnlyFoolsnMothers · 31/03/2020 10:28

Think there is trouble ahead- economically speaking with the euro- the influx of migrants into a financial screwed continent. My heart breaks for Italy.
Having an independent currency can help majorly during a recession.

psychomath · 31/03/2020 10:33

I've been wondering about this too. Not so much about FoM, which will almost certainly be reinstated as soon as the immediate crisis is over, but the resulting economic catastrophe is likely to lead to a rise in popularity of UKIP-equivalent parties across the EU, I think. Whether it'll be enough to break the EU completely I don't know, but it would certainly be ironic if the last few years of Brexit chaos turn out to have been for nothing.

notimagain · 31/03/2020 10:37

People who are living and working in a country other than the one they are a citizen of are pretty much living and working in the same place. That is what FoM is (for people).

Yep, FoM still exists, and people can still cross many of the internal Borders for a variety of reasons. e.g. essential workers living in one country but working in another...

TheLastSaola · 31/03/2020 10:43

I think it's very possible that it will severely curtail the EU.

The economic fallout is going to be huge.

Some countries have put in protectionist laws - e.g. France with face masks.

But most of all Victor Orban has given himself dictatorial powers in Hungary. They have no time limit and give himself oversight of the press. That's in massive breach of what is allowed in the EU. But I don't think theres the unity to stop him at the moment.

With economies wrecked. A rogue state within. And inward looking politics even by pro-EU leaders like Macron. I think the EU is the weakest it's maybe ever been

Zilla1 · 31/03/2020 10:45

EU is a political project more than an economic one. It appears likely the political benefits will continue to outweigh the costs, even if push comes to shove in the political outliers (Hungary rather than Italy and Spain).

Economically, again the benefits to the 'weaker' and 'stronger' members probably still outweigh the costs. Although PPs have said there's freedom from having your own currency, there's also benefits from being part of a larger group with a better credit rating (Spain, Italy...) compared with the alternative, hence all the 'efforts' to join the Euro in the first place by those nations. Germany also receive a massive 'subsidy' from being a Euro member compared with the effects if they have a continually-strengthening independant currency on their exports.

Could be wrong, I usually am.

AlternativePerspective · 31/03/2020 10:47

Economically I think that the repercussions will be felt for a long time and may possibly even bring about the collapse of the Euro as every country has its own economic impact.

As for the ventilator scheme, well, it seems we do have our own ideals in place for acquiring ventilators, and Spain and Italy currently have the highest death rates in the world including China so whatever they currently have in place it clearly isn’t working.

I voted remain but now I’m not sure whether not being in the EU in the aftermath might actually be a positive thing.

Lifeisgenerallyfun · 31/03/2020 11:12

I’ve been thinking this too. Where have the EU been in this? In a time of crisis every single member state has reverted to looking after itself first.

Germany obviously has managed to source lots of testing kits which could probably be better used in other countries, each country has set its own rules on travel, economics etc. Spain made its requests for further PPE to its NATO partners rather than the EU.

Countries such as Poland and Hungary have seemingly reverted practically back to the Cold War.

People I speak with from over the EU who were previous laughing at us for leaving are now saying maybe the Brits were right. How are the EU helping us now - people are openly questioning the ability of the Germans being able to source much needed supplies.

But I think the major test will come after this is all over. When countries are on their knees financially, there will be little appetite for countries taxing their own citizens to the hilt to bail out another country who maybe helped their own citizens more during the virus. Countries will be so different to what they were before, with different population balances, different economic needs, possibly aligning themselves to different allies. China (who appear to be busy buying up cheap worldwide stocks) will be even more of a world player. Countries will be keen to be seen as “clean” to enable movement in and out.

The purpose of the EU was often touted at providing a united front in times of crisis, to provide support for each other when facing a common enemy and trying to achieve a common goal. It appears to have failed at the first hurdle.

In a post virus world the EU is largely going to be seen as an expensive folly.

NoMorePoliticsPlease · 31/03/2020 11:15

Yes I really believe the EU is under great threat economically as a result of the Virus. Italy has appealled for help from the EU and Germany is v blocking it. The Italians are not impressed. It may be the end og=f the Euro so they can devalue

NoMorePoliticsPlease · 31/03/2020 11:17

On a plus side, not down to the EU but we have some tremendous co operative systems now in place, when countries will share ventilators and they will move around countries with the greatest need. That is what community working should look like.