Will the virus crisis kill off the EU?

[leckford]

Bearing in mind the sacrosanct free movement has been one of the first casualties, what next?

Lifeis, my reading of the German test kit situation is a little different, though I'm relying on the press to say they've donated most of 1.4m test kits to WHO rather than EU.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-german-tests-develop-private-pharma-company-cdc-a9406956.html

Germany stopped about 200,000 masks which Switzerland (another Schengen country but not in the EU) had paid for, passing over the German border.

So please don't peddle European solidarity propaganda, it went out the window at the first sign of trouble.

Spain, Italy and France will be in a whole new world of financial pain when the dust settles, they gave asked for debt mutualisation between the countries already but it was rebuffed by Germany and the Netherlands (the Netherlands being the strongest critic).

Without the EU, there would be even less help between those countries:

Earlier on in the crisis, the EU Commission threatened to slap Germany with an infringement proceeding

• an official reprimand for defying EU law - and also criticised countries with hospital capacity for not helping other mebers

Since then, Germany has sent many tonnes of PPE to fellow EU / EEA members including France, Italy, Switzerland, Romania and Sweden.

Germany is also treating critically ill patients sent from France, Italy and Spain, whose hospitals have been struggling.

Ugh. I predicted Brexit going through and Trump being elected.

I'm now definitely (and sadly) putting my money on the EU becoming more dysfunctional in the near future. This pandemic is going to for sure increase xenophobia, countries being hit the worst by the refugee crisis (Greece, Italy) are going to be swinging further right, I'm concerned about Hungary swinging further right and inspiring other countries.

It's all a bit concerning. I have no predictions about the UK anymore because I just can't see that far!

There has indeed been talk about the massive division between the Southern European countries and the northern ones during this pandemic. But I will need to look up the link as can't recall the source.

Richer EU members have always subsidised poorer ones in the 7-year budget plans, regional funding etc
but only within limits

There has never been willingness of the rich to completely subsidise the poor
Any more than taht happens within a country

So poorer EU members will decide if they'd rather have some help, or leave and have none
It's not as if the USA or China are lining up with a Marshall Aid plan for them
Every country has been hammered econically

The EU may well expand what it does, organising relief among members,
or building up emegency supplies for the next pandemic from China
(a biologist there has reported on finding many more different SARS-type viruses among wild bats)

Is that what you’re hoping for, OP?

btw, I have been astonished by the reports on MN of UK supermarkets sold out of most food

The UK had better worry about its own economy and its own food supplies - JIT system and 50% imported - rather than hope its neighbours crash

we have friends living in Italy. They hate the EU and are really hoping they leave. They feel as though the EU has been utterly useless in its support during this crisis.

I've been reading predictions that the Euro was finished ever since it was created

• after the first few "they are doomed" crises passed, it becomes less impressive

Unless the Brexit transition period is extended by June, most analysts expect Sterling to fall again later this year vs the dollar and the Euro

I would have thought this crisis would emphasize how important international cooperation is. It's also highlighted the fact that all EU member states have 'control of their borders' despite what Nige told us. The EU is certainly going to have some serious issues to deal with in the aftermath and are most likely going to have to offer rescue packages to the worst affected countries. I would expect to see them do this. Who knows what will happen in Brexit Britain. I'm not sure the economy here could take the double whammy of Covid 19 and crashing out with a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020, but we're reliant on Johnson to extend the transition period until we're in a more stable position. He needs to make a decision on this by the end of June. It's entirely in his hands and we'll all have to deal with the consequences. I'd far rather be in the EU right now.

Many Greeks were furious in 2008 that they did not receive more money, especially from Germany
However, when other Eurozone members suggested they could leave the Euro, Greece vehemently refused

As with the EU itself:
It's one thing raging that you are not being subsidised enough by others who have also suffered in the same crisis

It's very different to flouncing out and receiving nothing from anyone

• because who else would actually give them billions rather than lend it at interest ?

Brexit has not impresses anyone so far as helping the economy, because Brexit was not about money, as we keep being told

The ECB launched an Eur 800 billion initiative to help the Eurozone
More will follow
and there will be more direct aid to countries, once leaders have the space to get together

It will then be the decision of each member whether they want to go it alone

And Bigchoc hits the nail on the head. I'm not saying PPs on this but I've seen many Brexiters in real life who both wanted to leave the EU and wanted the EU to break up, presumably to validate their opinion that the EU was flawed. Within the UK, I'd be more worried about the security of the UK's food supply given the % the UK imports than external political events and the UK's economy (I know the EU's political evens impact on the UK, equally I doubt the UK's capacity to conduct trade negotiations with so many EU members individually).

Still, post-COVID and Brexit, I suppose one slight silver lining will be to moderate the demonising of the disabled and benefit claimants (they should all go and pick fruit and vegetables for farmers) given there'll be a bigger pool of recipients of government support (furloughed employees and self-employed - well those SE who won't be able to carry on while receiving funding) who could be told to work in the fields. In my experience, the ones who say someone else should work in the fields are the ones who wouldn't expect it to apply to them or their family and friends. Before anyone says, I don't see anything wrong with agricultural work though I am close enough and have enough experience to see it is towards an extreme combination of hard work and relatively low pay.

You need to look up the meaning of free movement.

This is worrying, I don’t think Germany have the money to bail out the EU this time:
www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-suicide-germany-thomas-schaefer-hesse-finance-cdu-a9432621.html?amp

To my friends and family in Italy who cannot wait to leave the EU, I usually ask :"And where are you going to go?"

Italy has received more help by being in the EU than out of it. Critically ill people have been airlifted to Germany to be treated, it's not like they have done nothing. And, I will say this as an Italian, the problems Italy has with healthcare are not a EU fault.

Lots of corruption, especially in the South, poor social reforms, organised crime and a general culture of not caring enough have wrecked the healthcare system.

I would be less surprised if countries like Sweden or the Netherlands wanted to leave.

There have always been people wanting indipendence and complaining that the EU was too involved in local politics and they wanted nothing to do with it. And now they want billions for free, just because. And not from EU, but from Germany somehow.

Well you can't have it both ways, it's like being divorced and living a single man's life, whilst expecting your ex wife to do your laundry.

I'm not even mentioning all the posts I see on my Facebook supporting Farrage.

I think the economic crisis will threaten the EU. Spain, Italy, Greece - how will they cope economically after this and are Germany and France going to be in a position to prop them up?

Yes.

The Dutch and Germans are already complaining about having to support the Italians and Spanish as they deal with this.

www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/germans-and-dutch-set-to-block-eu-corona-bonds-at-video-summit/

No hopefully covid-19 kills Brexit.

The EU has helped countries in this crisis where no one else has bothered. Ie money sent to Tunisia.

And closing borders in a pandemic is nothing to do with what freedom of movement means, lack of critical thinking there.

The reason the Italian economy is in a mess is that successive Italian governments have failed to implement necessary structural reforms. CV will add to the mess they are in. But until they address the root causes no amount of money from elsewhere will solve their problems.

I would have thought this crisis would emphasize how important international cooperation is. It's also highlighted the fact that all EU member states have 'control of their borders' despite what Nige told us. This. And also this Italy has received more help by being in the EU than out of it. Which should give places like Wales pause for thought - they should look at who has paid for their existing infrastructure and ask themselves who will help bail them out now after the double whammy of flooding and now Covid 19?

Borders were temporarily closed and checkpoints introduced following the refugee crisis in 2015. Interestingly enough for those who voted to leave the EU, countries within the bloc still very much have control over who entered. . .

Germany has indeed accepted many people into hospitals from overseas as there was spare capacity.

I've already heard dire predictions for the German economy, so another bailout is out of the question.

No.

It might kill Britain, though.