To wonder why the UK hasn't gone into lockdown yet?

[UnderReview]

Why doesn't the UK shut down now? Prevention better than (no) cure?

There's a doctor on Twitter (Dr Emma Hodcroft) who posted this...

Why are scientists alarmed when the first #COVID19 cases we hear of in a country are deaths? I thought it worth clarifying.

It's not because we worry the virus is "bad", "getting worse" or "changing". It's because #SARSCoV2 doesn't seem to lead to death very quickly
It seems like #SARSCoV2 infection takes about 3-4 weeks to overwhelm someone & lead to death - if it does, which for many it does not.

But this then implies that when we see deaths, those people have had the virus for weeks beforehand

And if no cases or only very few, well-tracable cases were detected during those weeks, #SARSCoV2 was circulating undetected.

And then only detected in some people who got ill enough to die. We know that's only a small fraction of the population

We don't know the answer to these questions exactly, but we don't need to in order to appreciate that seeing deaths first, or at time of diagnosis, is concerning to scientists & public health.

It's a sign that #SARSCoV2 is circulating more widely than we thought

This then marks a change in strategy, as we've seen in Italy, where it's very hard to retrace & take action, sometimes impossible. These efforts are still worthwhile, but harder than when detect #COVID19 cases earlier in the chain

For all those saying "its just the flu" its worth watching the Australian four corners programme (like panorama) on the virus (youtube). Someone has posted a link to it on the preppers thread. It really, really isn't just the flu.

do you really think it’s that simple to ‘lockdown’ a whole country?! Have you thought about implications to business/economy/etc? Maybe if you’re so worried - you should self impose quarantine until this is over

This. But nothing stopping you OP from putting your self on lockdown. Why don’t you remain in your house for the next 6 months, and not go to work or out anywhere at all in public.
What’s that? - too difficult/impractical?

Exactly.

Imagine doing that for the entire country

Hasa any chance you can say cribsheet what it says

And I still say sometimes the flu isnt just the flu either. (look at Spanish flu etc and bird flu). We underestimate viruses as a whole I think

Surely a country like UK would have a better chance or riding it out than, say, Venezuela

Careful, don't set your standards too high!!!

UK has some of the lowest number of nurses per 1000 people in europe, we ve consistently spent 1 or 2% less pa on health for decades than comparable nations, hospital beds are even lower.

I doubt the country has a workable plan, we ve been unable to work out how to leave the EU for 3.5 years, a relatively simple task compared to managing a worldwide pandemic.

I have read the transcript now though and this really sums it up for me.

I'm hiding from a virus that you can't see and a government that you don't want to muck around with.

and I think both points really do need to be looked at together with the situation in China

Personally I still believe this is the real issue

At the moment we don't have a good understanding of the real mortality rate for the novel coronavirus. It's estimated about 2 per cent. So if the mortality rate is 2%, if it's 1%, even if it's 0.5% and 300 million people get infected, that's a lot of people that could potentially die. Because if you think back into the Spanish flu, enormous numbers of people died, but the actual mortality rate was less than 1% but a huge number of people were infected.

The infection rate

The infection rate ??????

what happened are you ill?..

UK has just added italy to the list of countries where you must self isolate if you return and have any symptoms.

Err, probably because there have been about 2,600 deaths worldwide in a population of 7.7 billion. Seriously, people really need to get this in perspective. You have (far) more chance of being struck by lightning than catching this virus!

Lockdown would be a huge/impractical overreaction at this stage, but still...it's funny to see how entitled people feel to travel. 'I've booked my tickets to Japan in a month and no one can stop me' says one poster on p.1. Err OK. Same people are probably baying at other countries to lockdown their own citizenry.

It makes the mind boggle when you think of 50 million + people barred from movement in China.

Here ypu are but do mind the log/lin scaling!

covid19info.live/

Why? It's a mild disease in most cases, random testing has shown there's many more cases than we thought and they are asymptomatic, it's no different to flu

The slightly naive part of me assumes there is some emergency plan in place for situations like these. Plans based on professional advice not on political aspirations.

Yes, I used to think that too. And then I looked at the present government.

To be fair to the government for one second though (I complain about them all the time) - the cases that have come into the Uk seem to have been quickly very isolated and as far as we are aware no one else was infected. So there must have been some kind of plan that was then executed.
Or maybe that was just the NHS's efforts.

With a large number of cases in Italy however I think it's only a matter of time until we have more widespread cases. There have been plenty of articles about the fact that widespread panic and "lockdown" (whatever that means) could cause more deaths than the virus itself.

The slightly naive part of me assumes there is some emergency plan in place for situations like these. Plans based on professional advice not on political aspirations.

Councils and emergency services do have emergency plans in place. How well they'd work given the austerity cuts over the last 10 years is another matter but there is a huge amount of planning that takes place relatively independently of which fuckwits are in Westminster at any given time. Bit of info here www.local.gov.uk/emergency-planning but you can find out more elsewhere.

In reality it’s more than 50 million people on lockdown in China as there are restrictions on movement within cities and provinces.
Restrictions are being relaxed this week, office workers going back etc so figures coming out of China this week are key in terms of whether the Measures they have taken have been effective.

@HasaDigaEebowai just watched the 4 Corners episode you recommended.
Those poor people in Wuhan and the heroic doctors and nurses working and living in such horrific conditions.
@Quartz2208 It doesn't really answer any questions, basically they don't know what will happen but the current situation in Wuhan is unimaginably bad with people dying on the steeets or behind welded into their homes and left to die.

Horrendous conditions weren't they. The doctors screaming were clearly at their wits end and the bodies everywhere...

Those poor people of Wuhan are having to be sacrificed in the hope of preventing it spreading. Who even knows whether its making it worse for them. Anyone with a temperature is forcibly removed from their home and lumped in with the coronavirus patients. It was a real eye opener for me.

People in China are quarantined if they have a temperature not just in Wuhan but other cities and provinces. I live in .jiangsu and our compound mgt informed us that if you have a temp you must go to the hospital and there may be serious consequences if you fail to comply with these regulations.

@ShanghaiDiva are you fearful of the situation?

I think China has taken extraordinary measures and have made an amazing effort to contain the virus. People are going to incredible lengths during this outbreak, not only medical personnel but also those working in supermarkets to ensure supplies are available.
I find some of the comments on mumsnet eg I have resigned myself to dying from the virus, to be ridiculous and shows an incredible lack of awareness of the sacrifices so many are making to contain the virus.
This week has seen many people return to work and watching what happens to the number of cases as a result of this is key.
Am I worried?
Not about catching the virus, but I do worry about the effect on my dd - we are a separated family at the moment and she has many friends and her teachers back in China, her school is closed and we have no return date - so it is a very tough time for her. She has lived in China since she was 2 so her whole life is there.

We'll build a wall !!!!

Still not convinced it's called SARSCoV2. I'm almost certain it doesn't have a hashtag

I guess you and others were right, the lock down should have come earlier and it is an economic crisis across the world. I didn't see your deleted post.