To wonder why the UK hasn't gone into lockdown yet?

[UnderReview]

Why doesn't the UK shut down now? Prevention better than (no) cure?

There's a doctor on Twitter (Dr Emma Hodcroft) who posted this...

Why are scientists alarmed when the first #COVID19 cases we hear of in a country are deaths? I thought it worth clarifying.

It's not because we worry the virus is "bad", "getting worse" or "changing". It's because #SARSCoV2 doesn't seem to lead to death very quickly
It seems like #SARSCoV2 infection takes about 3-4 weeks to overwhelm someone & lead to death - if it does, which for many it does not.

But this then implies that when we see deaths, those people have had the virus for weeks beforehand

And if no cases or only very few, well-tracable cases were detected during those weeks, #SARSCoV2 was circulating undetected.

And then only detected in some people who got ill enough to die. We know that's only a small fraction of the population

We don't know the answer to these questions exactly, but we don't need to in order to appreciate that seeing deaths first, or at time of diagnosis, is concerning to scientists & public health.

It's a sign that #SARSCoV2 is circulating more widely than we thought

This then marks a change in strategy, as we've seen in Italy, where it's very hard to retrace & take action, sometimes impossible. These efforts are still worthwhile, but harder than when detect #COVID19 cases earlier in the chain

Germany are not closing their borders,
we are an island, so presumably less traffic.

This is the worldometer break down of CFR by age and comorbidities. It works out at about 2% CFR estimate over all. Compare that to around a 0.02% CFR of swine flu. Of course flu also hits elderly people hardest.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

But surely people aren't just concerned about their own personal risk of dying if they catch it? Because that would be terribly insular and does not look at the impact on our healthcare system at all.

Then I guess it depends how you count outcomes then @HasaDigaEebowai because the sats I've seen broken down by age class and then by co-morbities are nowhere near so bad for most people (except for the 1 class I've mentioned). I think 2% overall sounds about right but there will be so many variables in an individual's personal risk it's a pretty meaningless statistic.

No the 2% is the level the WHO thinks it will settle at. If you look at the top in the section with the death rate it shows as 9%. This is the rate from outcome cases ie died/recovered.

Anyway, we do have an old age crisis.....

Because ultimately the affects of putting us in lockdown when the probability is the virus is already here is worse. Infrastructure and trade would be definitely done

We have yet to see the global affect of China shutting down

I really hope that people aren't trying to argue that it's ok if a large number of elderly people are killed by this?

I can't see how it's preferable to die of malnutrition or lack of essential medicines and care. Or indeed boredom, or some moronic twat setting fire to your house because for whatever reason he holds you responsible.

It's not like shutting down for ruddy Christmas.

Apparently some are

EnidBlyton - what are you suggesting? That it's OK if elderly people die? What a horrible attitude - I bet you wouldn't be saying that if you or your parents fell into that category!

we are an island, so presumably less traffic.

LOOOOOOOL... No. Go spend a day at Dover, the Channel tunnel, major UK airports, etc, etc, etc...

Traffic in and out of the UK is enormous and constant.

SARSCoV2 is the formal name of the virus

I thought the official name was Covid 19?

I think SARS-CoV 2 is the virus while COVID-19 is the disease caused by it.

There are suggestions that the virus could become endemic and recur in the winter. You can't shut down every time and for months at a time, especially when the effect on most age groups is not that severe.

www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance/naming-the-coronavirus-disease-(covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it

One of the main reasons for making some preparations yourself is so that if your family gets the disease you can self-quarantine if you don't have complications. Hand washing and other sensible hygiene measures benefit everyone.

When people die of flu should we go on lockdown... as that’s killed more people so far.

The virus is already here. Lock yourself in a cupboard.

However medicine is just so far advanced in this country, is this beyond our capabilities?

I thought it was covid-19?

Thank you buttermilk

LOOOOOOOL... No. Go spend a day at Dover, the Channel tunnel, major UK airports, etc, etc, etc...

Traffic in and out of the UK is enormous and constant.

but traffic on mainland europe is probably busier, between germany and netherlands or Belgium or France even for instance

who knows

I worked in a school and the lockdown procedure was a pain! I cant imagine how a country can just switch on a button and inform we are all on lockdown!!!

Don't think it's a reasonable thing to do tbh and besides, more deaths from Flu. Follow the guidance on hygiene and i am sure you'll be fine!