To wonder why the UK hasn't gone into lockdown yet?

[UnderReview]

Why doesn't the UK shut down now? Prevention better than (no) cure?

There's a doctor on Twitter (Dr Emma Hodcroft) who posted this...

Why are scientists alarmed when the first #COVID19 cases we hear of in a country are deaths? I thought it worth clarifying.

It's not because we worry the virus is "bad", "getting worse" or "changing". It's because #SARSCoV2 doesn't seem to lead to death very quickly
It seems like #SARSCoV2 infection takes about 3-4 weeks to overwhelm someone & lead to death - if it does, which for many it does not.

But this then implies that when we see deaths, those people have had the virus for weeks beforehand

And if no cases or only very few, well-tracable cases were detected during those weeks, #SARSCoV2 was circulating undetected.

And then only detected in some people who got ill enough to die. We know that's only a small fraction of the population

We don't know the answer to these questions exactly, but we don't need to in order to appreciate that seeing deaths first, or at time of diagnosis, is concerning to scientists & public health.

It's a sign that #SARSCoV2 is circulating more widely than we thought

This then marks a change in strategy, as we've seen in Italy, where it's very hard to retrace & take action, sometimes impossible. These efforts are still worthwhile, but harder than when detect #COVID19 cases earlier in the chain

[Wheresthebeach]

I think disinfecting public transport would be a good step. Mind you I can just imagine the job advert 🤣
Hand sanitisers on public transport is certainly a good step.

[5zeds]

3.2 million people are over 80 in the uk, current death rates in this age group are 14.8%, so if it is infectious enough for everyone to get it (14.8%of3.2million) that will lead to nearly half a million deaths in that age group alone.

[ItIsWhatItIsInnit]

I think disinfecting public transport would be a good step

I've always wondered why the UK has carpety fabric seats on all public transport - it's been proven they're full of bodily fluids and rat hair. I even had a friend who shat himself on a bus.

Every other country I've been to has plastic or fake leather seats, which can be easily wiped down.

[Hingeandbracket]

it's been proven they're full of bodily fluids and rat hair.
I was sent an email claiming to contain details of research about bodily fluids in tube train seats. It was a total hoax. Please post a link to some actual truthful research or else I call hoax.

[EnidBlyton]

All these people wearing masks, they should wear gloves

[RedSheep73]

Can you actually imagine this government organising that? they couldn't organise their way out of a paper bag.

[ItIsWhatItIsInnit]

www.wired.co.uk/article/london-underground-bacteria-tubes
metro.co.uk/2017/09/07/traces-of-human-and-animal-faeces-found-on-tube-seats-6909963/

The seats are made of fabric that can't we washed or wiped. On many trains it literally looks brown and dusty. Even without study, common sense should tell you there is no way they're NOT full of crap.

[Cheeseandwin5]

Probably cause we will soon have to kick our half the doctors, nurses and auxiliary staff to return to their own countries

[Branster]

Banning travelling from a certain country (China in this case) would only work to a certain extent because if someone wants/needs to travel from a China to the UK they could take a route via another country.
As regards isolation hospitals, one solution would be to set up military hospitals acting as a series of centres specifically for this purpose. In practice that should be doable at a fast pace, but I don’t see the central government and local authorities getting their act together especially in conjunction with local health trusts.
The airlines and other travel companies (international train lines, cargo ships, cruise ships, airports etc) could consider enforcing some rules whereby travellers are requested to wear masks or gloves or use sanitising products. However, this wouldn’t be sufficient because only specialised breathing masks provide the required level of protection, they are impractical and the cost would be prohibited as an initial outlay.
We don’t know for certain the exact incubation period and how many other ways of transmitting the virus there are.
It’s impossible to police the whole world.
If anything, I can’t think of many other countries where closing down an entire city and setting up a hospital in less than a week would happen. It’s only because that country is kept under a very tight leash without much in the way of freedom and rights that the government acted the way it dI’d. And the hospital will probably fall down in a year - I very much doubt health and safety and building regs had a lot to do with that construction. We don’t know what the human cost of setting up the hospital was. It’s also the case that they are more concerned about economic implications than about the wellbeing of their own citizens. And who’s to say North Korea hasn’t been infected - for all we know they could all be dead by now over there because of this outbreak.
The reality is that people, goods and parts are moving all the time across the globe and it’s impossible to restrict this or screen it.
Maybe big corporations are already doing what they can to protect their employees but that’s a small percentage of the population.
It all comes down to the huge scale of the problem, lots of unknown factors, huge economic losses because of disruptions and, ultimately, about the cost of reducing the spread.
You can’t just lock down the UK unless you have some sort of military rule.

[IrmaFayLear]

I don't think there could be a lockdown.

Look what happens when there is 2cm of snow: cue Daily Mail sad face people whingeing about running out of food. If people can't organise two cans of soup in the house heaven help them if there's a full blown pandemic.

I'd be worried about looting, and also people are very selfish. There would be stampedes to hospitals. Would there be some triage over age? It would seem to be wrong to fill hospitals with 90-year-olds if the virus was affecting young people (like the Spanish flu did).

[mumwon]

the reason Spanish Flu killed so many young people was because many of them developed a cytokine storm (simply put an autoimmune over reaction of the body) the infection in Corona Virus affects the lung in older people or those who are vulnerable. This is why (at the moment & may it stay so) older people are affected & the young (mostly) get a mild infection. It seems many people are held in hospital as a way of stopping the spread or in case they do react. (The Corona Virus is NOT flu)

[mumwon]

@Branster What military hospitals? We don't have any more - they have units in a few hospitals
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Defence_Hospital_Units

[ErrolTheDragon]

Hand sanitisers on public transport is certainly a good step.

Seems to me it would be better for people to carry their own rather than installing something that everyone touches (given that not everyone will use the gel properly).

Wear gloves - deters you from absentmindedly putting your fingers in eyes, nose and mouth.

[janemaster]

The British Government seem slow to react to anything in comparison to other countries. We were still flying people back from Wuhan when other countries had stopped flights. We were slow to help citizens aboard that cruise ship. I suspect the Government will be slow to react if there is an outbreak here.

[Sgtmajormummy]

I don’t know what they’re showing on UK news but I’m in what you’re calling “Locked Down” Friuli and we’re certainly not in a state of panic.

All industries working as normal.
Road traffic quieter than normal.
Schools being closed until 2/3 is only two days more than the expected Carnival Break to Ash Wednesday.
No panic buying or sold out supermarkets. I remember it was far worse in 1990. All the toilet rolls got bought up.
Museums, churches, theatres and cinemas closed. Big deal.
No people walking on the streets wearing masks. Only level 3 filtering would be effective.

Italy was one of the first countries to implement a military-supported anti contagion plan. So they are among the first to get official figures back.
Italian scientists (women) have isolated the virus and are expecting to beat the French to creating a vaccine.
Schools have been closed because, although children rarely die from the disease, schools are a hive of infection. It’s to protect the wider population.

This is NOT lockdown. It’s a measured and planned response.

[EmmaGrundyForPM]

@janemaster that may well.be the case but we havent had an outbreak here so it looks as though the government have taken the right approach

[GingerGingerGingerGinger]

What is "lockdown" exactly?

[IrmaFayLear]

My relatives are all insanely panicking, Sgtmajormummy! (Chiefly about loo rolls...)

[peaceanddove]

Lock down? Really

God, I wish they taught critical thinking skills in school or even, you know, just thinking

[Branster]

mumwon I was thinking about mobile ones.

[Davros]

I thought this item in the latest issue of Private Eye is interesting

[mumwon]

@Branster - problem is I don't think there would be enough extra staff to do this - You realize that many doctors that go to war zones to support our forces are actually NHS staff working as Army Reserve - were are you suggesting these staff work - I am not being facetious or nasty - I am asking how you think this could work? We don't really have extra staff that could go out & do this (thank you Brexit & the screw up on NHS pensions tax re overtime) - I hope this "burns out" before a true pandemic does occur or that the doctors & biochemist find a cure or treatment.

[Seventyone72seventy3]

@Sgtmajormummy I am now envious that you get days off for carnival- we don't get that in Emilia-R! No panicking here either.

[mumwon]

May I point out that flu vaccinations do cut the number of flu deaths in the most vulnerable - even on the years it wasn't as "accurate" -the problem with this virus is that at the moment there is no real treatment or cure - except good nursing & support. I am not one of those people who are panicking because there are 13 people or who gets worried because someone who LOOKS (FGS) like they might come from a country where its prevalent sits next to me on a bus (although I would love buses to be cleaned - because they usually look pretty disgusting!)

[Branster]

mumwon yes I happen to know a superwoman who is one of those doctors. She is one of a dozen women of various professions I personally know who I truly greatly admire and find inspirational above pretty much any celebrity I’ve heard of (bar The likes of Christine Lagarde)
No idea, and you are absolutely right to point this out, but of particular importance appears to be the care side of things during isolation so you’d also need lots of nurses not just doctors.
I suspect most countries would have the same problem.
Surely a country like UK would have a better chance or riding it out than, say, Venezuela.
That’s the thing, we don’t know how these things would work in practice. The slightly naive part of me assumes there is some emergency plan in place for situations like these. Plans based on professional advice not on political aspirations.