It’s possible to have a successful vaginal delivery after 3 caesars. I would read through the Obs and Gynae guidelines on vbac to see where the medical advice is coming from.
The most important factor is why you had your first Caesar - how far you dilated (if at all) and where / when things stalled is an indication of how successful your vbac is likely to be.
Assuming failure to progress, no previous vaginal deliveries, closed cervix, age under 40, healthy BMI, your chance of a successful vbac is around 49%. This would increase if your cervix was showing signs of being ready for labour, and decrease with higher age and bmi (but you have previously said you’re in your 30s and healthy weight).
So you can look at your choices as:
- Elective Caesar. Removes the risk of uterine rupture in labour, but further increases uterine scarring which may affect your ability to have more babies safely. Nobody will stop you becoming pregnant, but the thinner your lower segment, the riskier subsequent pregnancies are for both you and the baby. Your surgeon can give you an indication of what your uterus looks like during the Caesar.
- Attempt at vbac. This has a 50/50 chance of being successful if no augmentation (that’s the hormone drip). Not many places would consider trying to stimulate a previously scarred uterus, but you’d likely be offered gel/pessaries/membrane rupture to get things going. You need continual monitoring and IV access in place. Epidurals are an option for pain relief but need to be carefully monitored as increased pain is one of the first signs of rupture.
This has two outcomes. Success - yay. You were in the 49% group, and your chances of future successful vbacs are improved. Your risk of rupture each time doesn’t go though.
Or failure. This can be for a variety of reasons (minimal or no progress, fetal distress, concern over potential rupture). In this case you end up with a Caesar in labour, which carries more risks for you and the baby and of the three options is the worst outcome. There is a higher risk of blood loss requiring transfusion, or hysterectomy in worst case scenario. If you need a Caesar because of uterine rupture you risk losing the baby, a hysterectomy and dying yourself (again, worst case scenario).
It’s a frequency gamble as to which group you would fall into with the vbac choice. The best outcome is a successful vaginal delivery, whereas the worst outcome is an attempt at vbac resulting in emergency Caesar. This is why elective Caesar is recommended as the outcome is known.
If your main concern is the ability to have more children then elective Caesar is likely (but not guaranteed) to be a better option. Vbac has a 50/50 chance that you will end up with a Caesar anyway, with more risks to you and the baby including the risk of hysterectomy.
This is a conversation you need to have with your obstetrician. Read up on things first (but don’t try and tell them their job, it puts their backs up). If you still really want a vbac then I would suggest that you plan a Caesar date for 39+ weeks but on the understanding that if you start to labour naturally they will examine you and see if they think it’s safe to see how the labour progresses. If you don’t go into spontaneous labour by your Caesar date then I’d take the elective.