Irish border in the event of no deal

[WankeyDoodle]

Genuine question.. what happens to Irish border in the event of a no deal? Presumably it would need to be a hard border because there's no trade deal? I'm struggling to understand the difference between no back stop with a WA and a no deal border.

TIA

@Metempsychosis

"I don’t accept that as an English voter I had a duty to fully inform myself about Irish border issues before the referendum."

And this is a massive, systemic problem. It is not the Irish border. It is the UK border with Ireland. It is our border with another country and from 31 October it will be our border with the EU.

It is always framed as something for the Irish to solve and not our problem but it is our problem. The people of NI are UK citizens (I appreciate many people in NI identify as Irish or both) If there is a return to sectarian violence, it will be our citizens dying.

I am not having a go at you personally because I think you are in the massive majority of British people who don't fully know how our country works.

NI is the paradox that means brexit is not possible without totally fucking the GFA and the union. There is no possible solution to NI that works apart from staying in the customs union or revoking Art 50.

Maximus headroom you have just nailed the crux of the problem.

The Channel Islands are non-UK but manage frictionless trade with EU (not just UK) perfectly well.

Why was that model never explored as a basis for a solution?
Especially as both UK and Ireland are nonSchengen

In the event of a No Deal Brexit:

A hard border will have to go up pretty sharpish.
Our paramilitaries will have a field day as smuggling revenue rockets.
Our farmers will be fucked as farming becomes unviable.
Quite a few of our manufacturing plants will close and relocate to RoI because they operate JiT systems.
A new generation of disaffected youth will swell the ranks of the paramilitaries. More cannon fodder means more terrorist attacks.

The UK mainland will suffer violence. But not as much as us in NI.

It took so much to wrest power from paramilitaries. No Deal delivers us right back into their hands.

alittleprivacy and all the other posters who've provided factual explanations, I honestly don't know where you find the patience to explain this for the millionth time - you are genuinely better people than I am.

The ignorance around this STILL after 3 fucking years is astounding. No wonder politicians get away with their lies and obfuscation!!!!!

and just a little reminder about the Channel Islands (whilst I bang my head against a brick wall) ............

The Channel Islands (“the Islands”) consist of the Bailiwicks of Guernsey and Jersey. They have a combined population of approximately 165,000, and a combined GDP of approximately £6.2billion. They are located just off the coast of France, in the English Channel. They are British Crown Dependencies, with a direct allegiance to the British Crown which goes back over 800 years.

The Islands are not part of the United Kingdom, but the UK is constitutionally responsible for the Islands’ defence and for formal international representation, while Channel Islanders are British Citizens. The Islands enjoy a high degree of autonomy, including their own fiscal and judicial systems, and receive no financial subsidy from the UK or the EU. The constitutional relationship between the Crown Dependencies (the Bailiwicks of Guernsey and Jersey, and the Isle of Man) and the UK and the EU is different to that of the UK Overseas Territories.

The formal relationship between the Channel Islands and the EU is enshrined in Protocol 3 of the UK’s 1972 Accession Treaty and confirmed in what is now Article 355 (5) (c) of the EU Treaties. Under Protocol 3, the Islands are part of the Customs Union and are essentially within the Single Market for the purposes of trade in goods but are “third countries” (i.e. outside the EU) in all other respects. However, the Channel Islands have a close relationship with the EU in many different fields, not simply those covered by the formal relationship under Protocol 3. Both Jersey and Guernsey voluntarily implement appropriate EU legislation or apply the international standards on which they are based.

It's a British border across the island of Ireland and it's therefore a British problem. We are beyond patient with this nonsense.

Thank you for the informed replies, the whole debacle has been keeping me up at night. Staunch Remainer here, still don't believe it will happen if the GFA agreement will be compromised. It all seems smoke and mirrors from the cabinet.. they are debating the back stop when no deal will bring about the same issues for Ireland. Cabinet wants to look strong to the leave vote, brexit will be kicked down the road I'm almost certain.

It feels like we are ungovernable. No way out of this mess without peeing off half the population, it's cost gazillions already, lives have been lost and more will be. Collective madness.

@ DioneTheDiabolist if you live in London and some other big cities on the mainland you will end up with loads of travel disruption due to bomb threats. Then when you get use to your travel being disrupted a random very large bomb will go off somewhere else killing a few people. This will make front page news unlike the daily shit in NI where you discover your friends' who moved away from there didn't get blown up just out of complete luck.

This is what I remember of my teens and early 20s until the GFA.

Well said MaximusHeadroom, was coming on to say similar but you've said it much more eloquently.

If you're English, you need to get it into your head that a hard border means Northern Ireland will suffer. It will be bad for Ireland, but it's NI that will really struggle. It's a return to civil war and terrorism in the UK, in your own country. This is not the "Irish problem". It is a UK problem, and it is your citizens who will die.

It seems that doesn't matter though when they're in Belfast or Derry though.

I'm sitting in NI as I type this. Boris Johnson is supposedly my prime minister. He clearly doesn't give a shit about my life or that of my family. He isn't even careful about his language, referring repeatedly to "Britain" instead of the "United Kingdom".

I'm a Remainer, I'm originally from ROI and I have that love of the EU that was typical there long before Brexit. But I appreciate the majority voted to Leave. What I will never understand is that apparently a huge number of people seem to think that it's ok to jeopardise the GFA to achieve that.

It's simple - a hard border will assert Britain's power over part of Ireland, a part where almost half the people consider themselves to be Irish and don't want to be part of Britain. And the tensions have been set in motion already - the UK government have said that all NI cars need to carry a 'GB' sticker even though NI isn't part of GB, it's part of the UK: www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-49558563

Excellent analysis . 3000 people died. No one wants to go back to that.

Excellent analysis . 3000 people died. No one wants to go back to that.

That's not true, I'm afraid. This no-deal Brexit nonsense is being pushed by people who damn well know what it means. They can't possibly be unaware, or unknowing (unlike a lot of voters). The only conclusion is they are happy to see people killed, maimed, orphaned, and losing children, just to get their goddamn fucking Brexit. There is no other conclusion, and no other way of explaining it. And there are words, and places in hell, and utter contempt for such people, and those that side with them, and those that enable them.

Well said DGRossetti.

Does anyone think this will lead to a United Ireland?

Yeh I think a lot of Irish people think a United Ireland is now possible.

@Missangrypants ahahhahahahahaha

Fuck off.

That is probably the most depressing thing I have read on MN. I amnt saying you are wrong. We are Canon fodder all over again. Least we forget Omagh, Enniskillen, Warrington, the Quinn Brothers and the thousands of other lives devastated. I say WE as once you have a hard border, you will soldiers guarding it, then attacks on the soldiers, deaths, more soldiers, bigger attacks in Northern Ireland, not enough "publicity or shock value" so attacks on Mainland UK & Dublin. Who is this good for? Ps I am strongly calling out the opposition who did a piss poor job of pointing out the risks.

I hope it will @Fourcandlesx I cant see anything else good coming out of this mess.

I just read that 44% of NI voted for Leave - it would be interesting to hear from these if any are on here.

I just read that 44% of NI voted for Leave - it would be interesting to hear from these if any are on here.

I imagine they saw how the 48% remainers were treated, and hightailed it.

I'm pretty sure that at some point in the future, Brexit is going to be up there with not granting civil rights and internment on the list of things that the UK government did to fuck up and inflame the situation in NI.

And people will look back and wonder at the stupidity and lack of insight.

I find it terrifying how glib some people are about the GFA being compromised, as though unrest is simply an acceptable by-product of our catastrophic Brexit shitshow

Agreed.