To ask when we get the results of the eu election?

[TheoriginalLEM]

There's a forecast win for the brexit party - how could that be???

I

@Cwenthryth
I love your optimism !! I think it would be no deal.

Did you miss that latest polls show more than 60% want to REMAIN?
Unfortunately the polls mean nothing only votes and I don't think this election has given us any more clarity it's still split pretty evenly between remain and leave with no convincing lead for either side.
I'm disappointed I expected remain parties to do better but I'm now not sure a second referendum would give us a clear majority for either route.
I think the low turn out shows that most people actually don't care either way about Brexit which is a travesty for such a life changing bit of legislation.

I'm disappointed I expected remain parties to do better

But Remain parties outperformed the polls and Brexit party came in a bottom end of their poll predictions...

Remain parties (LD, Green, CHUK, SNP, PC) totalled more votes than Leave parties (Brexit and UKIP)

The turnout was a great deal lower than the referendum, so it's hardly representative anyway. How can we know what the majority of people think when they don't bother voting?

But Remain parties outperformed the polls Polls don't matter, doing better than predicted isn't the same as winning. We saw this nonsense after the General Election, Labour celebrating losing like it was a victory because they beat the polls.

Remain parties (LD, Green, CHUK, SNP, PC) totalled more votes than Leave parties (Brexit and UKIP)
I think you have to include the Conservatives in that Leave count which makes it Remain (40.4%) - Leave (44%).
Even without the Tories the split is Remain (40.4%) - Leave (34.9%).
That's not a convincing lead for either side, the public aren't stupid and if you start claiming this result as a resounding success they're going to lose faith in the Remain side who are supposed to be the side of facts not spin.

The turnout was a great deal lower than the referendum, so it's hardly representative anyway. How can we know what the majority of people think when they don't bother voting?

Yes so frustrating, probably most people don't care and just want to stop hearing about it. Most of us on this thread are passionate about this issue whatever side we are on but I don't think the average person in the street has given it any thought.

I think you have to include the Conservatives in that Leave count which makes it Remain (40.4%) - Leave (44%)

True, but then don’t you need to include Labour as Remain?

It's very difficult to call with the Tories and Labour, since both are more ambiguous in their stance than most of the other parties. I think the Tories are definitely more of a Leave leaning party than Labour right now, but equally it would appear that Tory Leavers have been more likely to desert them than Labour Remainers. There have been at least some campaigning efforts by Labour activists to keep pro-EU voters within the tent, all the stuff about needing to vote Labour to avoid empowering the far right. There's been virtually nothing like that from the Tories.

True, but then don’t you need to include Labour as Remain?
No, because they’re not. Their stated priority is a deal and ‘bringing the country together’. They will have both leavers and remainers voting for them because both options are technically open under their manifesto.

You can’t add tories into the Leave vote, they’re a split party - as are Labour. There are too many unknowns and too low a turnout to decipher where the country sits on Brexit, but I think it’s worryingly as close as it was 3 years ago.

I’m not convinced the Conservative vote is split - why would anyone who wants to remain vote Conservative at this stage?

Because wether remoaners like it or not, this country voted to leave the EU and it needs to get on and happen!

You can’t add tories into the Leave vote, they’re a split party I think they're much more Leave than Remain especially with the possibility of Johnson or Gove in power but I do accept it's a tricky one.
That's why I gave the split without the Tories too. It's not a convincing win for either side whichever way you cut it.

The difficulty with assessing Labour and the Tories is whether you're looking at the membership, the politicians or those voting for the party across the population too.

I’m not convinced the Conservative vote is split - why would anyone who wants to remain vote Conservative at this stage?

Because they’re not an openly, obvious Leave party - the majority of Tory MPs voted to remain. Their stance on leaving has been borne from TM saying she would honour the referendum, but she also voted to remain.

How is a manifesto of “getting Brexit done” not an openly leave position, at this stage? No one cares now how individual MPs voted 3 years ago - what people are voting on is the party positions now, and the Conservative position is to leave one way or the other, depending on who the next PM is.

A remain voter supporting the Conservatives in these elections would baffle me I admit - is there anyone here who could explain that position?

Well I wouldn't do it myself, but people with views like for example Ken Clarke. Tribalism would play a part.

They also don't have an obvious place to go whereas very pro Brexit people who usually vote Tory do. I know some Tories who are pro EU or at least want a soft Brexit went to the Lib Dems, but it's a bigger step for them that it would've been for the Tory lunatic fringe to vote Brexit Party.

If I were guessing I'd say the Tory vote was probably no more than 10-20% pro EU people absolute max, Labour was maybe about 65%?

Turnout was shocking. What’s up with people?

So, add together all of the clear remain votes (which must include at least half of those voting labour) and there’s an overwhelming remain majority. Second ref is the only answer.

If I were guessing I'd say the Tory vote was probably no more than 10-20% pro EU people absolute max, Labour was maybe about 65%?

I think I'd estimate the same but it's pure conjecture.

Yeah. There might be some polling done to confirm or not but it was really just my best guess. Glad I'm not the only one who thinks it sounds realistic though!

I agree with everything gamer is saying

So far

Did you miss that latest polls show more than 60% want to REMAIN?
Misleading headline/spin - the 60% is based on Theresa May's deal v Remain and excludes the 'don't knows' etc. The link on page 1 of this thread goes on to say this;

"When comparing a no-deal Brexit, the Brexit deal and remaining in the European Union, 53% of people would support staying."

• so not 60%.

The New European appear to have calculated their own percentages by removing the 'don't knows', 'wouldn't vote' and 'refused' from this poll;

YouGov KSI Survey 1787 GB Adults 23-24th April 2019"

^"If there were a second referendum, and the choices were to remain in the EU OR leave the EU on the terms negotiated by the Government,
how would you vote?"^

Remain in the EU 45%
Leave the EU on the terms negotiated by the Government 29%
Would not vote 13%
Don't know 12%
Refused 1%

^"If there were a second referendum, and the choices were to remain in the EU OR leave the EU on the terms negotiated by the Government
OR leave the EU without a deal, how would you vote?"^

Remain in the EU 44%
Leave the EU on the terms negotiated by the Government 10%
Leave the EU without a deal 28%
Would not vote 7%
Don't know 9%
Refused 2%

I don't see why we should overturn a referendum result based on this particular survey - only 44% of those polled actively said they wanted to remain in the EU - not 60%. We need to look for a different way of leaving the EU first, not for a different way of remaining.

Brexit party has clear paint by numbers manifesto, you know what you’re getting. Given that on here we cant seem to decide what the rest of the main parties are standing for, how do you expect the general population to know.
I voted green to protest at how ineffectual labour are and because I want to stay in the EU, there will be other people voting green because they agree with their other policies. Lots of people probably voted labour and conservative because that’s what they’ve always done.
Unless you can ask people why they voted for the other parties, then you can’t just assume that they voted to leave or remain. IMO the result just shows that 32% of the voting public, don’t know what this figure is in relation to the eligible voting population, probably minute, have a strong opinion on something, but being the loudest doesn't mean that everyone else agrees with you.

@gamerwidow

they didn't though. More voted to leave. Personally, I don't think we can trust the polls on this - People will say they are voting remain, but actually vote "leave".