To be surprised that some friends are buying extra food because of Brexit?

[abacucat]

I suspect that specific foods may get be in short supply for a short period of time, but there will still be plenty of food in the shops. It is not going to be Armageddon. So this seemed an over reaction to me. Or am I going to be that person in the disaster movie who is laughing saying everyone is over reacting, who ends up dead when the disaster finally hits?

Are you stockpiling the fuel you'll need to cook it, too? Because that is what is most likely to be effected.

Much of the fuel we import is generally either via pipeline (thus less affected by lorry issues and just in time issues) or is from outside the EU. Thus fuel might be affected by tariffs and customs issues but in a different way and generally not to the same extent as food. Also the fuel we do import generally comes into different ports to the ones we do must trade with the EU with and thus should be less affected by a lorry gridlock. But yes this could be an issue, but its less pressing.

The place that might have most issues with this, is NI because it is particularly dependant on the EU for electricity.

There are different issues / risks for gas and electricity and petrol. But yes, I have considered this and I fortunately do have gas as well as electric anyway.

Hi @waywardfruit The effect on goods will be that EU trade that was largely waived through will be subject to extra checks at the port. See outline.com/uWd7Yt (or the FT directly but paywall) for the likely impact. You can't just add 200m extra declarations and checks a year into the system and expect it to cope. Most likely effect on the EU exporters is that they will export elsewhere in the EU and so prices here may rise and in the EU27 fall.

Honestly, I think it is ridiculous to suggest we will have food shortages. I think there may be shortages of a few imported goods from EU but honestly we can import these from rest of world. Supermarkets have contingency plans and there are huge unused air fields being used to stockpile certain foods. I have stuff in freezer and dried and tinned food I always have and won't be stockpiling any more. I am certain we will not go hungry. I am surprised so many intelligent people believe the extreme scare mongering. Even if we do end up leaving with no deal it will be a manged no deal and we trade on WTO terms including with EU.

OMG caringcarer rtft. Or just anything on the bloody topic.

"I have stuff in freezer and dried and tinned food I always have and won't be stockpiling any more."

You really don't hear the irony here?

Also fuel is MUCH easier to ration. For example 1970s style blackouts rather than full on no electricity...

caringcarer
@but honestly we can import these from rest of world

Our trade deals with the rest of the world are via EU trade deals. So prices on ANYTHING we import will go up, if we switch to WTO terms only which is the default.

Deals we have with the rest of the world are NOT guarenteed to role over on the current terms because many countries might see it as an opportunity to negogiate better terms for them at our expense because we will effectively be in a hostage situation if we can't import the same quantities from the EU that we are used to.

WTO terms are MUCH less favourable than deals we currently have - thus everything will be much more expensive if we go to WTO only. Even things from Africa, South America etc etc.

No country in the world trades on WTO only terms. Because they are shit. Every country has SOME bilateral deal - but the UK has no guarentee of this if other countries decide to be difficult.

I would bet that two weeks before March 29th, if it looks like we're leaving with no deal, all the people saying it's scaremongering nonsense will be buying beans in bulk like everyone else.

Red, in event of no deal, do you see our currency being devalued? And if so, how will this effect our debt levels and ability to repay debt including debt incurred by large private corporations from foreign lenders?

Our currency has never regained the levels it enjoyed in the world markets before Brexit.

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/tesco-food-stockpiling-no-deal-brexit-a8566571.html?amp

For posters saying it is better off people who voted to leave and will be able to stockpile. I say I voted to leave and will most definitely not be stockpiling even though I could afford to and have plenty of space to stockpile. I just think it is pointless and I am leave voter so I am supposed to be a thick one. Really the sky is not going to fall out of the sky.

Simple economics states if the pound falls in value we export more, so economy booms.

Even if that were automatically true carer it wouldn't happen on March 30th. Nobody's telling you you have to stock up. They're explaining in quite coherent terms why they are. You can do what you want.

Many countries we trade with via EU have already stated we will get same deal we already have e.g. Switzerland and Canada has stated we can have slightly better deal they give to EU as less bureaucracy. We already trade with other countries through WTO as no deals set up with EU already we will just expand those deals and Japan has invited us to join Trans Pacific Trading Partnership which has trade deals but looser than EU so not dictated to. We can do deals around world but will be more restrained if remain in SM or CU.

Red, in event of no deal, do you see our currency being devalued?

If we have disruption to exports then yes it's particularly likely.

And disruption to export are a natural side effect to disruption to imports too.

To a certain extent the market has already devalued the pound based on what it sees as risk of no deal.

If the WA fails to pass parliament next week as is currently expected then you'd expect some downward movement next week (depending on how big the government defeat is). As we get closer to no deal you'll get a gradual downward trend as people get increasingly nervous.

On Brexit day itself, whether fears play out or not will affect what happens. If the disruption isn't as bad as feared, you might actually see an uptick in the pound.

So I wou

So I wouldn't say it was completely clear cut and depends on what actually happens.

honestly we can import these from rest of world

I am concerned when people post things like this. It points to the fact that people have no understanding of what could happen in March. The government needs to do more so people understand.

Many countries we trade with via EU have already stated we will get same deal we already have e.g. Switzerland and Canada has stated we can have slightly better deal they give to EU as less bureaucracy. We already trade with other countries through WTO as no deals set up with EU already we will just expand those deals and Japan has invited us to join Trans Pacific Trading Partnership which has trade deals but looser than EU so not dictated to. We can do deals around world but will be more restrained if remain in SM or CU.

Yes but none of this will be necessarily be fully thrashed out come March 30th because new deals are complex and take time. Also geography affects trade - it simply costs more in transport to import from the likes of Canada compared to France. So any benefit of a better deal might be offset in transportation costs anyway.

caringcarer you're talking about medium or long term effects (supposed effects that I think are a pile of shite by the way) . Stockpiling is planning for immediate effects. Disruption in the supply chain is what we're taking about. Read the thread.

Thanks for the response, Red. My sister lives in the US and it's just now starting to register with the more politically astute there what's going on.

Simple economics states if the pound falls in value we export more, so economy booms.

We can't export more if we have supply chain failure or disruption.

If the components for a product are imported, then production is effective. It doesn't matter what the value of the pound is and whether that makes us more competitive in theory. We still need the raw materials.

Also if we import parts then WTO terms will increase costs of doing that and the WTO tariffs for our exports might be too high to make us more competitive anyway.

Lord Lilley’s 30 truths on leaving the EU under WTO terms are:

1: It will allow the UK to cash in, not crash out - the UK will not have to pay the £39billion divorce bill.

2: It avoids the corrosive uncertainty which the transition period would bring.

3: The UK will be able to use administrative measures to solve Irish border issue, without the need for a backstop.

4: After resolving the Irish border issue, the UK as a whole will be able to enter a Canada +++ style free trade deal, such as the one suggested by Donald Tusk.

5: WTO is a safe haven, not a hard option. Six of the EU’s top 10 trading partners trade under WTO rules.

6: UK exports to countries trading on WTO terms have grown 3 times faster than to the Single Market.

7: EU tariffs on exports from the UK would amount to less than half the UK’s current net contribution to the EU budget.

8: The UK is already a WTO member so would not need to rejoin it.

9: We can start to trade on the new tariff schedules as soon as we leave, without waiting for agreement from other WTO members.

10: The UK is making good progress in replicating the EU’s most important preferential trade arrangements - Switzerland has already agreed to carry over existing preferences.

11: The UK could take up Japan’s invitation to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

12: Bilateral trade deals do not have to take a long time to renegotiate. The average renegotiation time is 28 months.

13:“Micro” trade agreements will not be a big issue.

14: Scares about delays to imports are ‘ludicrous’, because Britain will control its borders.

15: There will be no medicine shortages.

16: There will be no food shortages.

17: Manufacturing supply chains and other goods deliveries will not be significantly affected.

18: The UK will not run out of clean water.

19: HMRC’s computer systems will be able to handle extra customs declarations, even if its new system is not fully online.

20: France is determined to prevent delays at Calais for fear of losing trade to Belgian and Dutch port.

21: A new traffic routing system will prevent serious delays to incoming lorries.

22: Planes will continue to fly to and from the EU.

23: Planes will continue to fly to the US and elsewhere.

24: Aircraft manufacturers will still be able to export parts, such as Airbus wings, despite claims to the contrary.

25: British haulage companies will still be able to operate between the UK and the EU.

26: Trade in animals, plants and food will continue after Brexit.

27: UK citizens will not face high mobile phone roaming charges when travelling to the EU.

28: UK car manufacturers have obtained approvals to sell their models to the EU.

29: New VAT rules will not affect the cash flow of importers.

30: British opera singers, musicians and other performers will still be able to tour the EU.

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1067595/brexit-news-no-deal-lord-lilley-wto-rules-30-truths-report

Laughing at this nonsense thread!

Part of the point is that short term shock of no deal could be utterly devastating. It could wipe businesses out.

A more managed exit with transition takes away some of the shock issues.

I do see long term there could be alternative ways to do things which are in the national interest. However a large shock event could wipe out many of those potential opportunities and we may never recover from that as a nation or it might take so long that the wisdom of no deal is highly questionable.

The risk of Brexit is born particularly in small and medium size businesses which make up the majority of our economy. It would leave us vulnerable to large foreign multi Nationals to move into that space is there small and medium businesses suffered badly. Which isn't in the national interest.

This is why many of the ERG actively support a shock event too though, because they have funds off shore which they can use to capitalise for their own personal benefit at the expense of ordinary Brits. People get very rich off shock events through disaster capitalism but its not ordinary people who benefit.

Ffs. Lilley doesn't half talk out of his arse. I follow him on twitter and he's utterly clueless. The majority of the above is nonsense.