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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to ask for a dumbed down version of whats happening - BREXIT

107 replies

cjt110 · 14/11/2018 14:08

So I understand that the UK majority voted to leave, that negotiations are taking place regarding the departure of the UK from the EU.

What I don't understand is what have we agreed on, what is in dispute and whats holding us up?

I can see trade is a big thing here and also the Irish/NIrish borders.

Can someone point me to an idiots guide?

OP posts:
LifesABeachCoaster · 15/11/2018 12:34

Welcome to Mumset, Ms. May

wins Mumsnet forever

theymademejoin · 15/11/2018 12:38

@tenredthings

Excellent summary. Just one point of order -
Shared border with Southern Ireland which is in the Eu would make having two different sets of rules difficult to police without a border.

  • there is no such place as Southern Ireland. It is either The Republic of Ireland or Ireland.
bellinisurge · 15/11/2018 12:45

As much as "Southern Ireland" made me cringe, I let it pass. But you are right, there is no country called Southern Ireland.

theymademejoin · 15/11/2018 12:49

@cjt110 - Precisely why I didn't vote. I didn't feel I had enough information to make an informed decision and rather than vote with mediocre information, I didn't vote at all.

Generally, if you don't understand the implications of voting for something, rather than abstaining, it is better to vote for the status quo, until and if, you are given enough information and clarity to make an informed decision.

While I admire your honesty here, I do think not voting was irresponsible, as maintaining the status quo will still allow the choice to be presented again at a later date, whereas not voting allows others to make a decision for you.

Hotpinkangel19 · 15/11/2018 12:58

Op, I didn't vote either. What is the worst that can happen if we leave the EU??

BarbaraofSevillle · 15/11/2018 13:00

Well not voting is a hell of a lot better than voting leave when it's clear that a good percentage who did so, certainly enough to change the result, didn't have a fucking clue what they were voting for.

Hence farmers voting leave still expecting to receive their EU subsidies, people thinking voting leave will improve the NHS when it will make it harder for EU staff to work her or populations of deprived areas who have received EU grants to improve council houses or roads having no clue where that money came from.

bellinisurge · 15/11/2018 13:03

@Hotpinkangel19 - if we leave EU without a deal very very very very bad things will happen.

BucketLid · 15/11/2018 13:05

Here's the withdrawal agreement with a table of contents added (which makes it much easier to navigate): https://github.com/Seferin/brexittoc/blob/master/TableeofContentssConcise.txt

Hotpinkangel19 · 15/11/2018 13:06

@bellinisurge can you elaborate please? What will/might/could happen?

Bluelady · 15/11/2018 13:15

That FB post is genius, pure genius.

bellinisurge · 15/11/2018 13:22

@Hotpinkangel19
Ok, here it is. Every deal we've ever made is no longer valid because every deal we ever made was as a member of the EU.
WTO rules require that you have border control over your economic territory so, in effect, this means both UK and EU need to have border controls at their border. In NI , that is a massive problem because it goes against an international agreement called the Good Friday Agreement.
A withdrawal deal such as the one May is proposing makes a fudge of it that is acceptable to the WTO.
If we can't have WTO basics we can't trade.
But let's suppose we magically sort NI, we have a problem in every other port. There will be no legal basis for anything to come in or go out. Food, medicine, people.
Let's assume that people of good will can sort that out. How long will that take. How empty will the shelves get because any hiccup at the border is very damaging to our Just In Time good supply and distribution system?
Are you ready for it?

Slimtimeagain · 15/11/2018 13:29

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-44971523/hard-brexit-soft-brexit-no-deal-what-does-brexit-mean

Not sure if this has been linked already. But I found this simplified video really handy to understand the basics..

IfNotNowBernard · 15/11/2018 13:35

Thanks bellini . I kind of get the NI/Ireland border GFA problem , and I understand the difficulty with import/export from UK to the Eu, but what happens normally with import/export between UK and non EU countries? Will that be affected? And if so, why?

IfNotNowBernard · 15/11/2018 13:36

slummy that was actually really useful!

IamtheDevilsAvocado · 15/11/2018 13:42

Hotpinkangel19...

The worse that can happen??

No deal brexit will be absolute crap...
Listen to the 'experts'....

IamtheDevilsAvocado · 15/11/2018 13:43

Ifnotnowbernard

Have a look at the vids I've posted... You an listen just to audio

bellinisurge · 15/11/2018 13:43

Our trade with non-EU countries will be affected because we did a deal with them as a member of the EU. If we crash out every deal we made becomes non valid. I'm not saying we could never make fresh deals but if you made a deal with someone and the deal was cancelled because the someone had acted badly and harmed themselves, would you make the same deal on the same terms?
Also, let's take our good friends in New Zealand, we tried to arrange a deal where we just hived off part of the deal they have with the EU. They said, hang on, we want to sell X amount of goods to the EU, not a bit less than X because we have to send that bit to the UK. It caused a ruckus at the WTO and so we can't just pop over to WTO trading.

cjt110 · 15/11/2018 16:02

Also, can people not be dicks about my, or anyone else's, lack of understanding? It's feckin complicated for most people ( and I don't vote leave).

OP posts:
MissEliza · 15/11/2018 16:07

Theymademejoin I agree and that was part of the reason I voted Remain.

TheWifeofRequirement · 15/11/2018 16:08

We’ve been trying to figure out a way to leave the EU for a 2 years that would mean the least amount of didsriluption for the country (Irish border, trade, supply chains etc). TM has put together a deal she thinks delivers this, but because it means a transition period where we’d still be Holden to EU rules but not able to influence decision in the EU, the super brexiteers have kicked off about it and are saying they can’t support it.

The problem is, the alternative is no deal, which is widely established to be a very very bad thing for everyone.

The brexiteers haven’t established what it is they actually want/ could deliver that’s different to TM’s deal, but are now kicking up a stink and calling for her to resign. It’s u likely this is because they have a better plan, more likely so they can grab power in her wake and install themselves in government.

Meanwhile, we just have to put on our helmets and weather the storm until we get to vote on SOMETHING, whether it’s a general election or a people’s vote.

nomad5 · 15/11/2018 16:27

For those asking about the consequences of no deal Brexit, I've cut and paste a short clear summary from an Evening Standard article below. For the average person, shortages of foods and medicine are very likely.

Basically what Theresa May has negotiated is a shit version of what the UK currently has now as a member of the EU. It is the best that could be hoped for given the Good Friday Agreement (and the EU) say there can be no border in Northern Ireland.

"What effect would a no-deal Brexit have on Britain?
EU nationals living in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU could see their residency rights disappear overnight and become subject to domestic immigration rules.

A no deal Brexit threatens to put pressure the Good Friday agreement, as the EU would want Ireland to impose customs and other checks on its border with Northern Ireland which neither want to do.

Tariffs would be imposed on goods that the UK sends to the EU and the same for goods that the EU sends to the UK. Tariffs on agricultural products could be as high as 60 percent.

Britain would also exit the single market for goods and agriculture which could result in red tape for businesses.

Customs checks at ports would affect the supply of food and goods and there are fears of long queues at borders and disruption to air travel.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned that house prices could plummet by a third over three years and that homeowners could be left with negative equity and spiralling mortgage rates.

UK Driving licences may not work abroad, there is no guarantee that there would be free data roaming in Europe and British passport holders could run into difficulty."

vandrew4 · 15/11/2018 16:36

from what I've seen on these ( numerous) threads the consensus seems to be that remainers in the general public ( mn) know pretty much what's going to happen yet leavers and seemingly the people in charge of the country don't.
amazing insight by condescending as fuck mnetters

vandrew4 · 15/11/2018 16:38

That's lovely nomad
mostly "could" and "may" and "fears of " so not really consequences at all; possible consequences

MarshaBradyo · 15/11/2018 16:39

It is ridiculous that the whole ask the people thing happened. Even the politicians who ordered it didn’t predict this. The public thought it was about unrelated stuff.

Every time someone on R4 says take it to the people, just don’t.

Get someone who wanted this in the first place to sort it out.

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