to ask for a dumbed down version of whats happening - BREXIT

[cjt110]

So I understand that the UK majority voted to leave, that negotiations are taking place regarding the departure of the UK from the EU.

What I don't understand is what have we agreed on, what is in dispute and whats holding us up?

I can see trade is a big thing here and also the Irish/NIrish borders.

Can someone point me to an idiots guide?

I think the fault there is mainly with the politicians.

That said, "what is the EU" being top of the google rankings the day after the referendum was pretty depressing.

bellinisurge Yes... I'm awarwbDovwe is an import port. Am not "dat fick" 😆

I like your analogy of being fucked whichever way.

And I don't think politics is easy to understand because of half of the bullshit they speak. No plain English. All propaganda.

And I'm nor entirely sure half of those who voted in the referendum were clear on the outcome. I think perhaps some of it was party alliance more than Leave or Stay

Am aware Dover is an import port** stupid phone

LakieLady So the government and May could go through all this and it gets bounced anyway....

This is easy to follow...

And I'm nor entirely sure half of those who voted in the referendum were clear on the outcome. I think perhaps some of it was party alliance more than Leave or Stay

I don't think so. Both main parties have always been split on Europe, albeit for different reasons.

Right-wing Tories don't like it because they believe in unfettered free trade and minimal state intervention, left-wing Labour supporters don't like it because it prevents the level of state intervention they long for.

Tony Benn summed it rather well, when he said something along the lines of "If the UK voted for socialism, the EU would not allow it".

All I know is that whatever happens, there will be people unhappy and angry with it. There is no option that everybody likes.

Dangly I agree.

Well... She's got the backing she needed so far

Theresa May secures cabinet backing for Brexit divorce deal

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-deal-latest-theresa-mays-cabinet-backs-eu-divorce-deal-a3990241.html

So the government and May could go through all this and it gets bounced anyway....

Pretty much.

The interesting bit is what would happen after it's bounced. Would May resign or would there be a coup? Would there be an election or a second referendum? Would the headbangers ERG take control?

If it's a very soft deal, will Remainers support it as the lesser of 2 evils and to avoid an election, the result of which would be pretty uncertain?

I suspect the last might be the case.

It is not impossible for some Labour MPs to not toe the party line and to vote for the deal, but probably not enough.

Thanks all for helping me to understand a little bit more.

Just to mess with us all op - there apparently wasn't a Cabinet vote. Either Mordaunt or McVey asked her if it was going to be what's called a "free vote" in Parliament. This is where MPs vote according to their conscience.

Just to add that those who make millions gaming the markets would like the hardest possible brexit because they can make money out of it; Russia China and America all stand to gain in different ways from a weaker Eu,.

So... again to check my understanding is correct...

May has asked for a No Deal meaning a customs union. Where we set the tarriffs on trade wirh other countries as opposed to one set tariff for all countries.

Also it means we will have a hard border? Hence why the DUP are pissed off as it may mean a hard border between NI and Eire?

Slight detail- I cannot believe the amount of voters who voted leave without having a flaming clue of the reality of the situation, I really cant.
In layman's terms it is like going through a divorce, you don't simply get what you want, the 'opposition' or injured party do not have to agree to your demands they are at liberty to say "no, I'm not agreeing to that."

DUP would love a hard border because it fucks over their hated GFA. And causes murder and mayhem which they thrive on.
A no deal Brexit is not one with a customs union. A no deal Brexit is everything stops and we start from ground zero to build our country back.
A withdrawal deal means we can start negotiating a trade deal with the EU - our biggest international market. Without it, we would find it much more difficult. Mainly because our economy would be tanked by just operating on WTO rules. No other country does this. And we'd need a hard border with NI under No Deal because the WTO requires you to have control of your economic territory. As would the EU at the Ireland/NI border.
Under a functioning Good Friday Agreement and a withdrawal deal, we can fudge this sufficiently at the WTO.

Thanks again for clarifying :-)

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46212838?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cp7r8vgl2rgt/reality-check&link_location=live-reporting-story" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46212838?intlink_from_url=www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cp7r8vgl2rgt/reality-check&link_location=live-reporting-story

This is a link to the bbc reality check on the draft agreement. It may help?

No, May has come up with a deal which she will now try to get through parliament. No deal is what happens if we don’t agree any deal with the EU and leave anyway.

@SmashedPatsy Welcome to Mumset, Ms. May.

Thank you for making me laugh on a drizzly Thursday morning. The best comment on Mumsnet this week.

Until a deal is actually agreed there is little point seeing how it affects us.
The proposal at present is "the best they can come up with" . In my opinion it is worse than remaining, but we are a democracy and we voted to leave. Unfortunately it is a forever choice, not like in the election where only stuck for next few years.
It all stems from having a knee jerk vote initially without considering the implications of majority voting to exit EU.
Sorry OP but I think a bullet point list is a while away.

Here is my brief summery of Brexit as I understand it !

Cameron calls referendum because he's scared Farage is taking Tory votes.

Nobody expected leave result

Tories have to deliver an Brexit agreement with the Eu that they and the leave voters agree to.

May held an election to strengthen her hand and actually weakened it , so had to bribe DUP to side with her.

Northern Ireland doesn't want to be treated differently from the rest of the Uk. Shared border with Southern Ireland which is in the Eu would make having two different sets of rules difficult to police without a border. Good Friday agreement means any border illegal.

May fudges an agreement which nobody likes as it's impossible to satisfy everyone.

Only other solution is to have no deal which spells chaos and economic disaster.

Corbyn is trying to appease his leave voters and his own anti EU opinions and is not supporting a second vote in spite of the fact that if he did his Government would probably win any election that may or may not happen very soon.

Majority agree Britain will be much worse off with this deal than we were before. Uk citizens seemingly mostly unaware how many of their rights are being lost if this goes through as it's long boring and difficult to understand.

A few disaster Capitalist rich people who manipulated the media and publicity around the leave campaign illegally ( Aaron banks, Cambridge analytica etc. ) have made a lot of money and will make even more if we leave with no deal.

Great so people who are eligible to vote don’t have a clue about what’s going on.
The reason we are in this mess.

Our top politicians and Economists are arguing about all the ins and outs of what the various Brexit options will mean but you're expecting your average mumsnetter to have a better grasp? Cameron started the ball rolling. All political parties fed us a diet of propaganda and very few real facts. May held held a stupid election and ended up in bed with the DUP. But the reason we are in this mess is because some mumsnetters are honest enough to say they don't really understand all the politics involved.

Facepalm.

Friend sent this to me