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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to think the EU will break apart in the next few years...

83 replies

lostincake · 22/06/2018 18:15

With the rise in anti-immigrant sentiment and the popularity of right-wing and Eurosceptic Governments in Italy, Poland, Hungary and possibly Germany, it doesn't look like EU unity will last.

OP posts:
woman11017 · 22/06/2018 20:45

benefits no-one except the rich and privileged
like the Airbus and BMW workers?

Pebblespony · 22/06/2018 20:47

Most people I know here in Ireland are pretty pro EU and, from here anyway, it looks like Brexit is turning into an unholy mess. I'd be surprised if the EU went but a few other contries might want to leave.

SumerisIcumenin · 22/06/2018 20:48

I voted remain.
I think the danger to the EU is if we make a success of leaving.
If in 5 years after Brexit we are thriving, citizens in Italy, Greece and Spain will think ‘hmmmm’ Especially if the Northern members continue to insist migrants are not their problem. The other issue is the newer Eastern states. Members, but cherry-picking the rules and laws they will obey and blocking refugees and migrants without an effective sanction as a response. So in 5 years, there’s going to be a cash problem and a fortress mentality developing, with more pressure from outside the union. I hope it survives.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 22/06/2018 20:49

Brexiteers have been banging on about the EU collapsing for two years. Utter delusion, anything to deflect from the mess in this country. Airbus news is apparently still project fear. Pity the delusion.

woman11017 · 22/06/2018 20:52

If in 5 years after Brexit we are thriving, citizens in Italy, Greece and Spain will think ‘hmmmm

They've been there and done that. Most have living memory of what such regimes do to a people.

AndIWouldWalk500Yards · 22/06/2018 21:01

Nope. None of the other EU countries will want to bring this utter fucking shitstorm and mess onto their shores.

And utter bollocks user1490607838 the only people in the UK who will benefit from Brexit are the rich and priviliged. Those who were wanting to avoid the EU Anti Tax Avoidance Directive that comes into force in January 2019. Like Jacob Rees Mogg, Boris Johnson, Theresa & Philip May, Jeremy Hunt, Andrea Leadsom et all. Ya know, the rich and privileged.

We've even seen the issues of parliamentary sovereignty turned into a joke with the Brexiteers complaining against actual parliamentary sovereignty. Sometihing they campaigned for as a reason to leave the EU until the House of Lords delivered actual parliamentary sovereignty that they didn't agree with.

Us actual workers will see no benefits. When exactly did anyone in the Tory party last deliver some amazing benefits for working class communities? Brexit might sound great but it will bite you on the arse and you'll wonder how the fuck you fell for it.

jasjas1973 · 22/06/2018 21:04

The EU wont collapse, it ll evolve, it has since its inception from a coal and steel trading organisation.... why would any one think it ll stay the same?
Europe has a far greater knowledge of turmoil and war than we do, they not risk Europe falling apart again.

54321go · 22/06/2018 21:22

There was a wall dividing East and West Germany with watchtowers and soldiers with a shoot to kill policy. It didn't completely prevent some 'escaping' from the East to West.
If immigrants want to get into Europe they will.
An agreed political solution is needed and I trust the EU is working on it.
It seems that the UK is the 'promised land' for many, I don't know why but the UK needs cooperation with the EU to stop or at least significantly reduce the flow.
Maybe more people in Britain should stand on the coast and look outwards and not inwards, they might learn something.
On the other hand 'Love Island' is on so stuff the world.

Theworldisfullofgs · 22/06/2018 21:29

It's interesting that generally the EU does have the interests of it's citizens at his heart . It generally doesn't go in for disaster capitalism. It seems that only we are that gullible.

GladAllOver · 22/06/2018 22:07

The best thing for the EU is Brexit. Once they see the UK's disaster they will pull together to avoid following suit.

user1490607838 · 23/06/2018 16:37

Look at this bunch of snowflakes.

www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/‘full-british-brexit’-row-as-thousands-take-to-streets-two-years-on-from-vote/ar-AAz2Z4E?ocid=spartanntp

What a ridiculous and pointless 'protest.' Good job they have nothing better to do with their time. The UK are leaving the EU, we will be better off for it, and it benefits NO ordinary British citizen.

As I said, only the rich and privileged benefit from being in the EU. I can't wait to leave this controlling, money grabbing pointless organisation. Thank GOD the British public saw sense, and voted to leave!

Suck it up remoaners, we are leaving the EU. Deal with it.

And it can't come soon enough. Grin

siwel123 · 23/06/2018 16:38

Or we will suffer financial pain and have a horrible future?

user1490607838 · 23/06/2018 16:38

And yes it WON'T be long before other countries see sense, and follow suit.

Bye bye EU! Grin

user1490607838 · 23/06/2018 16:39

Nah not gonna happen siwel. It's all scaremongering, you'll see.

We are leaving anyway, so best suck it up luv! Wink

siwel123 · 23/06/2018 16:41

So government reports are scaremongering?
Big companies threatening to leave is scaremongering?

siwel123 · 23/06/2018 16:41

Also don't appreciate being called luv. It is patronising

Kursk · 23/06/2018 16:46

I would agree that the Europe could dissolve in the future. However I think Brussels are trying hard to use Brexit as a warning to the others.

Brexit is going to be extremely hard, the EU are going to make a example out of the UK. I am preparing for civil unrest and potential economic collapse ( my inner Prepper is getting exited)

54321go · 23/06/2018 16:52

So, the people who live in Ellesmere Port and dozens of other 'deprived' areas have had no support from the EU?
@user1490607838 try looking a few things up before spouting so much drivel.
It is the EU that helps provide funds for these areas and tries to persuade the UK government to look after them too. Ellesmere has a nice plaque saying it received EU funding for regeneration. The fact the local yobs have sprayed it with graffiti and made a mess is not the EU's fault.
The Tories are not about to pile a load of money into these areas now.
Try listening to programmes like 'Any Questions' who manage at least some debate rather than the headlines in The Sun and other 'illuminating' newspapers. The FT is also quite a good read if you want a glimpse into what is really happening. The FACTS are there but you might have to think a bit to work out the trend if you don't agree with some of the articles.

54321go · 23/06/2018 16:59

The EU is not attempting to make an example of the UK. There are rules for the EU 'club' which Britain helped writing in many cases. They are only sticking to the rules.
Take a wider view, the world is getting a very scary place with Mr Trump, N Korea, ISIS, concerns over China and Russia.
Standing on a little island valiantly waving a Union flag doesn't really cut it I am afraid.
Many countries in Europe know what it is like to have Fascist jackboots marching down the road, they don't want them back.

Elasticity · 23/06/2018 17:09

No EU will remain and be economically successful.

When we leave and have tariffs placed on all our closest trading partners our exports will collapse, cost of living will rocket and economy will tank.

No other country will want to follow in our footsteps.

Maybe83 · 23/06/2018 17:15

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

Plimmy · 23/06/2018 17:19

The assumption that the UK post-Brexit will hit the skids is just as speculative as the EU falling apart because of economic and migratory pressures. Neither is more likely than the other.

But it is probably right that the EU cannot survive another departure by a significant country. Italy now has a very strong negotiating hand and will exploit it.

On balance I expect the EU to stay in a form broadly like it is today. The odds are not strongly in favour though.

(European aversion to further war is the product of black and white footage of death camps, not of EU policy documents and agreeable lunches. And the US saved Europe in the decades after WWII.)

54321go · 23/06/2018 17:36

The death camps were not the main part of the war that was witnessed by most, it was more the far right movements. If you speak to Spaniards about 'the war' they think of the Spanish civil war that ended around the time Hitler started by invading Poland. The Spanish largely sat out the 'Hitler' war.
What is frightening though is the war from North Africa possibly spreading northwards. Suicide bombers were relatively unknown in previous 'European' wars. New tactics have changed things radically.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/06/2018 18:05

The UK is leaving its closest market of 27 countries and 450 million people

The UK - on WTO terms - loses the 50 Free Trade deals with non-EU countries
and the 800 other various trading arrangements and mutual recognition agreements

The UK loses membership of key agencies that perform vital functions, like enabling international flights, like EURATOM (nuclear fuel and nuclear medicine)

The UK loses the ability to certify components and sub-systems for manufacturing exports to every country in the world

  • which is e.g. why Airbus say they might have to leave - their planes can't fly until the UK can certify its own components

In contrast:
The EU loses frictionless access to a market of 65 million, loses easy access to British components
but it doesn't suffer any of the other problems
Its trade with all the other countries in the world continues.
It continues to belong to all the agencies it does now
It continues to certify its own components/

The EU will suffer a small amount of pain, whereas the UK would suffer deep recession.
The govt's own impact statements are frightening

BigChocFrenzy · 23/06/2018 18:14

Boris Johnson - our Foreign Secretary - told French & German diplomats
(who he'd invited to a reception to celebrate the Queen's birthday)

"Fuck business"

That doesn't bode well for a prosperous future