Nobody saw the 2008 downturn coming either
Err this utter tripe pisses me off. Lots of people DID predict the downturn.
In fact we, personally, bought knowing it was about to happen, but knew we needed to live somewhere and waiting wasn't an option (lots of factors to that). Where we bought and what we bought was hugely influenced with that in mind. We knew it had to be somewhere we wanted to live for a long time. If we had waited until after the crash, we knew the chances of getting a mortgage would be a lot harder and there were properties in the area we wanted to buy which were a one time only bet.
We had friends who were going for effective 110% mortgages in 2006 which we knew were not sustainable even in the short term. We told them they were utterly nuts under the circumstances. Their response? Oh well the banks wouldn't lend us that much if there was a risk. (Face palm). Guess who they had a mortgage with. Yep. Northern Rock.
There were plenty of economists who did see it coming too. Go Google it.
It was a risk assessment. The risk was there if you looked and understood those risks.
It was the politicians that didn't listen to what people were saying and the advice they got. They ignored banks taking far too many high risk mortgages.
When they say 'no one saw it coming', what they mean is politicians stuck their heads in the sand and pretended it wasn't going to happen. And then went 'best get some spin out, in case anyone tried to say we fucked up.
They didn't risk assessment properly.
We simply don't have the economic dynamics for a crash now.
Unless Boris Johnson and Co manage to scupper May and do a cliff edge kamikaze Brexit, where we have a national crisis with food shortages and mass unemployment, which isn't totally out of the question but is looking less likely. And frankly I'm more worried about riots in those circumstances than house prices. Plus since a crash will affect those who have bought since 2008 most and wipe out equity and/or put people in negative equity and will have most impact on job opportunities for younger people thus compounding problem, I'm aware that the Tories more than anyone can't afford a crash even if they'd quite like to own everything..
Instead we have an under supply of houses at the bottom of the market and a lack of people able to move up. We have banks who have been forced to tighten up on who they lend to and the margin of extra income they have in the event of interest rate rises. And lots of people who want to downsize but don't want to do it at bargain basement prices. (Cos they want to cash in on those juicy equity rises). We have people locked into mortgages unable to remortgage as they don't meet the stricter criteria for a new mortgage but have enough to be able
to continue paying their current mortgage. We have the BoE adverse to rising interest rates because of the risk to the market.
We've all the components of the market shrinking as less people move. Because on the whole, it's more risk adverse than it was. Younger people aren't able to take the risks people were 10 years ago, in the same way. (Buy to let landlords on the other hand...). It does not add up to a crash unless there is a huge significant shock to the market (like cliff edge Brexit). It does add up to a long slow grinding halt to the market as it all gradually unravels.
Maybe I'm totally wrong this time round and there will be a shock and subsequent crash but I'm not concerned in the same way I was as in 2007.