To think that big house price falls finally on the way?

[qwertyflirty]

After years or price rises, in my area (edge of London), I'm finally seeing price falls of around 15% from peak.

Lots of evidence in recent months of house price falls starting and picking up in London/South East, and usually once they start here, price falls spread elsewhere.

House prices are down on average 17K since July 2017 in London. "The average price of a home for the capital as a whole was £471,986, down from a peak of £488,247 last July."

There is little the government can do to mitigate it this time round, as interest rates are already at record lows. All signs are currently pointing to the top of the market having been reached and prices about to crash.

Such as:

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/18/london-house-prices-fall-average-uk

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5733321/Beware-red-danger-signs-house-prices-Young-buyers-borrow-record-sums.html

www.theguardian.com/money/2018/may/12/house-prices-are-on-the-slide-where-will-they-go-now

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/house-prices-fall-housing-market-rics-survey-april-a8343561.html

www.propertyweek.com/finance/house-price-falls-continue-in-london-and-spread-to-south-west/5096455.article

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/10/celebrate-house-prices-falling-britain-property-values

Nobody saw the 2008 downturn coming either

The trick is not to predict a downturn (fairly obvious), but to predict exactly when it will happen.

Erm - what's desperate about my posts?

I've asked:

• why are you so invested in this?
• what have you actually done about it?

I've said:

• I sold mine easily
• a friend sold hers easily
• two other friends have not

It's not as black and white as you'd love to think.

But apparently questioning you is "increasingly desperate".

Hope your employer knows you're spending so much time on this, you'll still need that salary if you're going to buy one of those cheap flats after the crash, you know!

I don't think wewere.. is coming across as desperate at all. They're just offering an opinion that is opposite yours, it makes this all a lot more balanced because you're ranting like the best of them!

Flipping (no pun intended) hell this thread has gone to pot.

To be honest, I don't even have a fully formed opinion. London isn't one homogenous mass, as there are different pockets and different properties (e.g. mansion blocks with gardens still seem to be more popular than white wedding cake walk-ups or new builds) and Brexit is still v unknown.

I just find the OP distasteful!

I just find the OP distasteful!

I think you’ve held your own.

Really? Where am I slavering for people to lose money, or accusing posters of being socks?

FUNDERS OF PROPERTY DEVELOPERS

YOU QUOTED IT YOURSELF

YOU KNOW WHO THE FUNDERS OF PROPERTY DEVELOPERS ARE, DONT YOU?

BANKS.

YOU EITHER ARENT READING OR DONT UNDERSTAND

But surely peaks and troughs are all part of the mortgage lifecycle.
The house I bought previously in 2007 never recovered from the 2008 crash yet I benefitted prior to that and after.

I know that compared to my nephews in their 20s and unable to get on the ladder I am lucky.

anyone need one?

Here's the other 2-bed house that sold for 95K more in the same street 6 months earlier:

The house that sold for £95k has had a nice kitchen extension and a downstairs loo put in. Include in the full re-decoration and a new kitchen and bathroom... you are probably not far off your £95k difference what with the hassle of doing an extension.

I'm not saying prices aren't falling, but they haven't fallen by £95k on that street and you are using really crappy examples!

I've just come out of a meeting and committed 63 million quid to building it (north london) so let's hope im not bluffing as much as u think I am or my jobs deffo gone

Gobsmacked anyone thinks it remotely plausible they are committing £63m irl and simultaneously bragging about it and second guessing / defending their decision on MN.

Because people don't have jobs that involve building sites ? how is that unrealistic to you ..

Making it worse. Really need the fancy laughing so hard I'm crying emoji but alas this will have to do - btw I don't answer to Bob or Wendy either.

This is starting to turn nasty now

Which bit are you finding funny?
Did you not understand the sarcasm about the second guessing, as I and the Banks funding it clearly have full confidence in the market.. or does the thought of someone having a job that spends that amount of money to build homes confuse you?

if property prices fall in London, what effect do posters think it will have on the South East generally?

Banks do have confidence. They are extremely cautious with any company they lend to and you have to do a lot to keep them happy.
They have no interest whatsoever in pretending the market won’t crash when they secretly know it will. To suggest otherwise shows a deep lack of understanding

One thing this thread really does illustrate is that a little bit of knowledge is dangerous

This thread has seemingly convinced thread companies that infant a flashy London pad.

My mumsnet adverts are all for some flat development in EC3

The falls of 15% are in my area only. (Which went up more than most

So if the average is nearer 3% then some areas must have gone up.

*Nobody saw the 2008 downturn coming either

The trick is not to predict a downturn (fairly obvious), but to predict exactly when it will happen*

The trick is to sell at the top, which I did and buy at the bottom

I also predicted a dip because of a combination of things. Brexit uncertainty and the tax and immigration implications on BTLers etc

I'm not quitre following the argument but people seem to have strong view although I cannot quite work out what they all are. It seems to me that particularly the higher priced London properties are currently falling in value which is a good thing. The lowest priced ones out here in zone 5 are still quite expensive for a lot of people although many more people own rather than rent compared with say 1900 or 1910/20. Other parts of the country which I know well too are different and it is hard to generalise.

The various moves the Tories have taken have had an effect to lower some prices which is what they intended.

No one ever is 100% sure what will happen exactly when but investors certainly put a lot of effort into trying to get it right.

Property priecs have often fallen in various parts of London. I remember the 1990s when we sold 3 properties at a loss. I think people were leaving London then and the population was shrinking. Let me see if I can look it up. i certainly saw a diary entry of mine from about 1993 which was a pretty dire picture of the massive losses on our home and our two buy to let flats and people being laid off at work left right and centre.

(Okay 21% reduction in 1990s. I think we lost a lot more but that's probably just because I'm a bad property investor.)

I have always suspected that the housing market would peak, fall and possibly implode. It is unsustainable forever, because wages aren’t rising nearly as fast as house prices have been. It will probably trickle down as people in the most expensive properties downsize. Only the 1% will be able to afford these.

If it hasn't been said already, here is one of those ripple effect things. Someone makes a prediction, the word spread, it becomes believed as fact, people panic, the result suggested is achieved. The only person who gains, perhaps, is the original rumour spreader, who wanted prices to drop so they can jump on board when prices have dipped. Just a thought, based on experience and observation.