Alexandra Erin
@alexandraerin
I'm still not counting on it, but for the first time I'm starting to think it might be slightly more likely that Trump is out of office before 2020 than not.
This is not based on the likelihood of any particular outcome, but the growing likelihood that a personality like Trump's will force a resolution before any outcome is concluded.
His tendency to push away and undermine anyone who is terribly capable in ways he's not (because he sees them as undermining himself) has been manifesting itself towards people like Kelly and McMaster, who have been keeping his regime afloat.
Contrary to what some people are suggesting, there's no reason to think Mueller's going to haul Trump in "next" or "soon". He's moving quickly by some measurements, but quickly to cover a lot of ground. He needs an ironclad, broad-based case, from multiple angles.
But Trump's instincts work against him in a case where the few public details are making for a slow build, a slow burn. It amounts to him letting rip with both barrels while his target is still miles away.
Meanwhile, I'm seeing signs that we as a society are finding our footing in this aggressively overhyped news cycle. We're still talking about Rob Porter; new news was breaking about him over the weekend. We're still talking about the Parkland murders and the survivors.
Still plan for having to vote him out in 2020. Still expect that to be a fight, with voter suppression, turnout depression, misinformation, organized campaigns to make whoever the Democrat candidate is The Weakest Candidate Ever so you can safely blame someone else if you give in
The biggest single thing you can do to both set the stage for 2020 and maybe make it not worth it to Trump to stick around that long is to vote in 2018. Run the GOP out of Washington. Total rout. Vote them out.
Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of civic participation.
We've got a lot of gradations of winning. Changing the balance in the Senate by 2 seats completely changes the balance of power in Washington DC. Whole landscape flips.
I think we can do so much better than that, but if they do their worst and that's the most we can manage?
If all we manage is changing two Senate seats, we take away their rubber stamp. They can't confirm judges, they can't pass laws, they can't do anything.
And if we approach November like it's do or die, like we have to chance to flip those two seats give it our all to get there... if everyone who can vote, does vote... that's how we get the blue wave
Don't assume that any seat will be won.
Assume that every seat can be won.
That's how we win.