Hi OP I am 43 and have just had my second child, u had my first at 41.
I the last two years the medical guidance around older mother's has shifted to be mostly about prevention of still birth, and the most effective way to prevent still birth is to induce at 37/38 weeks.
My baby on some measures was viewed to be small and I was advised to be induced at 37 weeks.
I looked at the primary evidence behind the guidelines and then made a decision based on the guidance, but balanced with what I viewed to be my personal risk. I was also offered and accepted increased monitoring for the last three weeks and opted to be induced at 40 weeks if I had not gone into labour before that. So, I understand that standard medical advice is not always right for the individual. However, I do think you might be under estimating the risks.
At 45, you are amongst the oldest women to give birth. You will have substantially higher risk of still birth and significant post partum haemorrhage.
Beyond 40 weeks the placenta in all women begins to struggle, and unless you are being very closely monitored, there is no way you will be able to tell if your placenta is failing.
Does your plan change if you go beyond term? If you went 2 weeks overdue, what then? At what point does the desire to have the baby out over ride the desire to have a home birth?
Also, you need to remember that whilst you are entitled to assess and accept the risk of having a home birth, medics are equally entitled to assess the risk and deny attendance bat a birth they deem to be too risky.
My personal view is that you are either willing to accept a much higher risk of still birth than I would be, or you under estimating the risk. One piece of evidence that really swayed me was the observation that in a substantial portion of still births there were no signs or signals and prior to birth. Placenta failure can be silent.