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Renato Mariotti
Renato Mariotti
@renato_mariotti
THREAD: What does today's news that Flynn's lawyers are no longer sharing information with the Trump legal team tell us about the state of Mueller's investigation? (Hint: It tells us a lot.)
1/ While most of us were celebrating Thanksgiving with our families, the @nytimes broke the news that lawyers for former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn told Trump's lawyers that they could no longer discuss the Mueller investigation.
2/ Defense attorneys representing individuals that are under investigation typically agree to share information with each other about what they've learned from the government.
3/ The government tries to reveal as little as possible about what it's doing to the defense, so defense attorneys try to glean as much as they can from their brief conversations with prosecutors and from the questions their clients are asked during interviews.
4/ Those nuggets of information are valuable and are usually the basis of the stories we're reading in the media about the Mueller investigation. The lawyers representing people under investigation dissect those nuggets just like I do for you.
5/ Usually defense attorneys enter into a "joint defense agreement." Sometimes it's written down but often it isn't. Basically it's an agreement that your client are on the same side and so your statements to each other (among attorneys) are privileged.
6/ The fact that Flynn's lawyers aren't sharing information with Trump's lawyers means that they believe it is no longer in Flynn's interest to do so. It is highly likely that it means Flynn is pursuing a cooperation deal with Mueller.
7/ That's a shocking development because it means that Flynn does not expect Trump to pardon him or his son, or he believes that him or his son could be convicted of unpardonable state offenses. If pardons are off the table, cooperation is likely the right move for Flynn.
8/ This makes the behavior of Flynn's son, who made baseless attacks against Mueller on Twitter, seem bizarre. It also calls into question Manafort's strategy. Manafort's lawyers have publicly blasted Mueller, and the only obvious upside of that strategy is that it pleases Trump.
9/ According to @Comey, Trump told him that Flynn "is a good guy. I hope you can let this go." If Flynn thinks HE won't get a pardon, after Trump made that request on his behalf, why does Manafort think he'll get one?
10/ (One answer could be that a pardon of Flynn could be used by Mueller as evidence of Trump's "corrupt intent" to prove obstruction, because it could indicate Trump's strong desire to relieve Flynn of criminal liability. A Manafort pardon wouldn't impact an obstruction case.)
11/ To pursue a deal, Flynn would generally have to agree to waive his Fifth Amendment right and agree to an interview with Mueller's team. They would give him limited protection (called "proffer" protection) as to his statements.
12/ Mueller could use any leads he generated off of what Flynn said and could also the statements against him if Flynn said something different on the witness stand later. So defense attorneys don't bring their client in to seek cooperation unless they think they can get a deal.
13/ To get a deal, Flynn would need to prove testimony that helped the government make a chargeable case against someone else. It's not enough for Flynn to try hard, although even his attempt to cooperate could be considered by the judge at sentencing.
14/ Now that we know Flynn is trying to cooperate, the recent news that Mueller is looking at Flynn business partner Bijan Khan takes on new meaning. It's possible that Flynn has flipped on Khan, or that Khan's cooperation lead to Flynn's cooperation.
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amp/mike-flynn-business-partner-bijan-kian-now-subject-mueller-probe-n823366
15/ Obviously Mueller will push Flynn for information on everyone he is investigating, but the mere fact that Flynn is cooperating doesn't mean that Flynn's testimony is sufficient to charge any particular person. A completed deal would just mean SOMEONE else could be charged.
16/ A deal for Flynn would likely mean that Mueller would accept a guilty plea to a single felony charge and would potentially recommend a reduced sentence depending on the extent of his cooperation. It is unlikely to result in complete immunity.
17/ Typically federal prosecutors require their cooperators to answer all questions on all subjects related to the investigation, so when someone "flips," it often generates many new leads and avenues to investigate. Flynn's cooperation would further lengthen the investigation.
18/ So Trump lawyer Ty Cobb's prediction that the entire investigation could wrap up shortly after the new year is looking worse by the minute. /end
HabesLA1
HabesLA1
@habesla1
Serious question: If you’re Trump’s lawyers does this make you nervous?
Renato Mariotti
@renato_mariotti
It's never a good thing for the subject of a criminal investigation when someone else who is under investigation decides to cooperate. The cooperator always helps the prosecutor, which hurts the other people under investigation.