To wonder what our Archduke Ferdinand moment is going to be?

[CredulousThickos]

You know, for when our three eyed, albino, telepathic descendants do their history gcse.

Brexit? Trump as US president, and the ensuing twitter row with North Korea? The upcoming Spanish Civil war? One of the recent terror attacks worldwide?

Just musing really as DD was doing ‘causes of WW1’ for homework.

This is a great thread.

Has anyone read "East-West Street", published last year by Phillippe Sands, the war crimes and human rights barrister? It's a riveting read, combining the history of Nuremberg and the setting up of the European Court of Human Rights and the development of the crime of "genocide" with the story of his own family in the town of Lvov/Lviv, under successive regimes - Russia, Germany, and the 1000s of townspeople murdered there.

I bought this book after hearing Phillippe Sands speak at the Cambridge Literary Festival in 2016 - one of those moments that make the hairs stand on the back of your neck. He talked about how lively, vibrant and mixed the town was, full of people, children, music, cafes etc, and what became of it, and at the end he said we should "take nothing for granted".

I think maybe the Arab Spring and resulting unrest which has increased refugees/immigration to Europe. Resulting in far right groups gaining ground again.

Nothing about wiseness, just aggressive expansionism...

Yes. Aggressive expansionism towards the East is unwise. Expansionism doesn't have to be armed and usually isn't towards the beginning of conflicts. Just for an example of this go back to pre WWI and have a look at the pushing and pulling and various pressures put on Serbia by bribery, enducements, threats, offers etc, etc. These came from all sides, Russia, Austria, the Ottoman Empire, Italy.

It's a strategically highly important place and at the moment is independent and a satellite of neither Russia or the EU. Probably the safest option for peace in Europe.

But who's proposing that changes? It's not Russia. The EU is absolutely crystal clear that attempts to expand into Serbia would be viewed as an aggressive act. They are still saying they plan to do it. These are aggressive acts.

It's a bit like the red lines drawn for Hitler over Poland. This is our limit, go over it and we'll retaliate.

The second Gulf War and then the 2008 financial crash... brought about distrust of elites, distrust in political systems, and the polarisation of debate. The other key component being the digital age and rise of social media.

American civil war

Trump and Putin could accidentally let one of their proxy wars get out of hand

Both men are extreme narcissists who tantrum if they feel slighted
Putin has more brains, but Russia has been broke for years - a country of 120 million with an economy only the size of Hungary's
So Putin is more desperate to loot other countries

Russia did roll over and give up the USSR when President Reagan bankrupted them with spiralling defence spending
However, Russia then was led by geriatric apparatchiks, not a raving egomaniac

I'm concerned Trump may declare war on Iran
I hope that at least this time the UK will no longer participate

I think 9/11 because it led to foreign policy changes that really divided the world. Lots of moderate Muslims and Arabs feel bitter towards the West for the invasion of Iraq and think that decision really fuelled extremism in the Middle East. Also the fall of Saddam Hussein and resultant instability let loose a lot of dangerous forces. Many of the senior figures in Isis were officers in Saddam's army who were let go by the Coalition.

I would also agree with 9-11. The act itself and the response to it have lead us to where we are today. Much of the terrorism on Britain's streets and racial and religious tension can be traced back to there. The Iraq war, the overthrow of Colonel Gadaffi and the attempted overthrow of Assad led to the refugee crisis which turn brought us the rise of the far right. Although to be honest the far right are just normal Europeans who don't want to be a despised minority in their own countries.

"Although to be honest the far right are just normal Europeans who don't want to be a despised minority in their own countries."

That's scare-mongering, though. There is no likelihood in the next few generations of "normal Europeans" (which I presume is your dog-whistle for white Europeans) becoming minorities in their own countries.

I think it will be ecological and not happened yet.

Although to be honest the far right are just normal Europeans who don't want to be a despised minority in their own countries.

If they treated minorities better they might be so afraid of becoming them. As it stands I sure as fuck wouldn’t want to be in a minority group.

Guffalo, if you think minorities are badly treated here I suggest you have a research of how minorities are treated in Muslim majority countries. It's not pretty or pleasant unless you're a privileged ex-pat.

But who's proposing that changes? It's not Russia. The EU is absolutely crystal clear that attempts to expand into Serbia would be viewed as an aggressive act. They are still saying they plan to do it. These are aggressive acts.

Again, Serbia is not a part of Russia. Join or not join the EU, it should be up to Serbia.
What is wrong is that it could be seen as an aggressive act.
The EU is not planning on anexing Serbia by force.

Your position seems more akin to Chamberlain in relation to Hitler.

Basically you are fully signed up to your own agenda and can't deal with anyone who disagrees with you.

Actually, Twatyer, that's exactly what I was thinking about you.

Serbia doesn’t have a large Russian population at all. The uk probably has more Russians in it.

But sure, Serbia will cause WWIII

Cheers for that nuanced analysis, nice to see Westerners operating from their usual predictably ignorant basis when it comes to pontificating about the Balkans

Because areas like the Ukraine (in particular the Crimea) and Serbia are of huge strategic importance to Russia's defence.

You don't seem to be able to appreciate how geopolitics looks from any other perspective but your own Lweji, but I'll try and explain it from that perspective to make it clear.

Imagine Ireland decided to become an offshoot of North Korea tomorrow. So North Korea could put all their nukes and missiles there within easy reach of our most important military facilities and sensitive sites like nuclear power plants. Or the Netherlands decided that they wanted to team up with Iran so Iran could get a nice clear path to our nukes across the North Sea in Scotland. Or perhaps France decided to pal up with North Korea meaning they had a nice convenient route for a land invasion.

What do you think we would do? Do you think we would just say 'Oh well if that's what they want to do it's up to them'? Or do you think we would do anything possible to stop it happening up to and including invading that region to make sure it didn't happen?

I'm 100% certain it would be the latter as it would be suicide otherwise. It's the same for Russia, they're not going to let NATO box them in to a position they can't defend.

The EU is not a lovely friendly presence to most of the world as it's armies have been involved in most of the recent questionable invasions the US has led in recent years.

The EU knows that trying to absorb Serbia is going to lead to a kick off in the Balkans but they're still doing it. It's not a matter of appeasing Putin. He is not asking for a change in the status quo. It's EU German expansionism which is causing tension. Not Russian.

You might have bought into the idea that the EU is a lovely friendly little club that just does nice things and gives out free kittens and money. But that's not the way the world outside the west sees it. They see it as the sidekick of the US.

marking my place to scare myself silly.

Serbia will join the EU without any major issues with Russia. They don't have a Russian minority or a land border with Russia.

You don't seem to be able to appreciate how geopolitics looks from any other perspective but your own Lweji, but I'll try and explain it from that perspective to make it clear.

Loving the comparison between Ireland in relation to NK and Serbia in relation to the EU.
Totes the same thing.

You also seem to be confusing NATO with the EU. It's understandable, to a point, for the untrained eye, but there are differences.

I really do know how the west is seen by non-western countries. You, on the other hand, seem to understand Russia's point of view very well.

When part of Yugoslavia, Serbia was one of the Non Aligned countries. This happened in the 50s. They were not a Russian satellite in the way that Poland or Czechoslovakia were. They were not part of the Soviet Union. They were as much Russia’s ally as somewhere like oh I don’t know, Ireland was.

really, read a book, or at least have a squizz at a Wikipedia article before you attempt to chat shit about Balkan politics.

Still, I guess at least we haven’t had the stupid trope that Balkan people are naturally violent and prone to warring with everyone

Serbia doesn’t have a large Russian population at all. The uk probably has more Russians in it.

Actually what I said was:

^Russia's made quite clear that it's not happy about the EU expanding East, particularly to areas with high Russian populations and strong Russian links. Like the Crimea and, er, Serbia.*

Crimea does have a high Russian population. And Serbia does have strong links to Russia, particularly culturally.

But sure, Serbia will cause WWIII

Yeah because it's never been involved in the start of a world war before right? Totally implausible.

Cheers for that nuanced analysis, nice to see Westerners operating from their usual predictably ignorant basis when it comes to pontificating about the Balkans

Well get you Enver Hoxha!

Wow wow wow. Imagine knowing fuckledy squat about something but still blatting on about it. I might as well as my gerbil for his thoughts.

Lol at serbia having a lot in common culturally with Russia. They have majority Orthodox believers...and...that’s it. Each Orthodox Church is autocephalous anyway, there’s no Pope or whatever dictating things.

If you had any self awareness, you’d be embarrassed.

I really do think that the real curse of Balkan people is all the numptys who, knowing fuckall about us, our culture, our history, balkansplain us to us. Worse still are the numptys who do so from a position of power that enables them to really screw the region over.