To wonder what our Archduke Ferdinand moment is going to be?

[CredulousThickos]

You know, for when our three eyed, albino, telepathic descendants do their history gcse.

Brexit? Trump as US president, and the ensuing twitter row with North Korea? The upcoming Spanish Civil war? One of the recent terror attacks worldwide?

Just musing really as DD was doing ‘causes of WW1’ for homework.

The Russians don't see it that way.

That is my point. The issue isn't"Western expansionism", but Putin's desire for power the the old glory days.

Look at Afghanistan and Iraq.

I don't disagree there, but that's not the EU the main driver...

Putin and Russia are the problem.

Possibly in Syria. But in Europe Russia has only acted defensively whereas the EU is the one sucking up territories it is aware it's neighbours are jumpy over.

I don't disagree there, but that's not the EU the main driver...

No. NATO countries are the main drivers and the EU is strongly tied to NATO.

NATO countries don't look so friendly and peaceable if you're not one of them.

It's Western imperialism and the EU is hugely a part of that.

Because it's not like the West is all in favour of self determination if they feel that the philosophy that self determination chooses threatens them is it (Cuba, Vietnam, Venezuela etc, etc, etc).

Possibly in Syria. But in Europe Russia has only acted defensively whereas the EU is the one sucking up territories it is aware it's neighbours are jumpy over.

The EU is hardly "sucking up territories". That is what Russia did to Crimea.

NATO countries are the main drivers and the EU is strongly tied to NATO

That would be the US and certain NATO countries. Driven by oil.

You should not conflate it with the EU as such. The EU itself is a threat to the US as an alternative economic power.

Cuba, Vietnam, Venezuela etc, etc, etc

Odd choice of countries there. Different times, different issues.

China has just completed its second aircraft carrier, and is constructing deep water ports in the South China Sea. Whilst everyone's looking at Putin and Russia, who are flat broke, they are quietly beavering away to increase their military capacity. As the old saying goes, rattling a sabre makes noise; drawing one doesn't. They might not start the war but they're planning on winning it.

Thankfully everyone appears to be pissed of at North Korea so it's highly improbable that anyone will be willing to go to war on their behalf. If they do kick off it will be bloody and short. What's worrying is what happens when the big guns start squabbling over the remains - if America and Russia have any sense they'll let China have it.

Also, look along the old silk road - Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Iraq and into the Caucuses and Balkans. There's pretty much always been a war somewhere along the road - fighting in Afghanistan is a nightmare because they've had a lot of practice - and everyone has a finger in the pie.

Could it be a natural disaster that is the trigger for world war three? Maybe a disaster that dries up the supply of oil for some time, leading to wars to secure what oil there is?

You should not conflate it with the EU as such. The EU itself is a threat to the US as an alternative economic power.

Pahahaha. No it's not.

Odd choice of countries there. Different times, different issues.

Yes, but I was using them as examples that if the West sees a country which is strategically important to it coming under the influence of a hostile ideology it reacts. Could add Afghanistan (multiple times), Iraq, many Central European countries during the Cold War to that list too.

EU expansionism also threatens natural resources other countries use so other countries feel the need to defend that too.

It's absolutely naive to believe that other countries like China and Russia are just going to swallow the line that western expansionism is just some sort of benign kindness. Not when they've seen how other countries have ended up.

They might be able to convince much of the public in their own countries that they are some sort of benign international peace force but not the rest of the world.

This expansion of western/central Europe east is a predictable one oft repeated. Most people in the U.K. won't be aware of the constant wars and power struggles in that part of the world. But to Russians and Eastern Europeans it's following a very familiar pattern.

It's interesting that you don't talk about Russian expansionism or Chinese expansionism, though.

It's interesting that you don't talk about Russian expansionism or Chinese expansionism, though

Aside from Crimea where would that be?

Pahahaha. No it's not.

And yet, they are keen on undermining it as much as possible. Curious that.

Aside from Crimea where would that be?

You're not aware of what the Chinese are buying around the world and how they are moving in in Africa, then?

And totally oblivious of Russia and Syria, Afghanistan, and how they have started musling on the NK issue?
Have you completely missed their interference with elections in western countries?

They're not 'musling' in on NK. They share a border and have a legitimate interest. And for anybody in the West to complain about China investing in other countries is rank hypocrisy, they've done way more themselves.

And Putin in Syria is propping up a pretty unpleasant dicatatorship because it suits his defence/economic/strategic interests. Y'know, a bit like the west does with Saudi Arabia.

Have you completely missed their interference with elections in western countries?

Um. Have you missed EU interference with politics and elections in the Eastern bloc? US interference with elections and economies just about everywhere.

It's hilarious people try and pretend we have some kind of moral authority on these issues when we're doing exactly the same thing.

Well said, MargaretTwatyer

It's hilarious people try and pretend we have some kind of moral authority

I'm not at all.

However, you presented the whole story as one sided of EU imperialism. What I've been doing is put forward a more complete picture, unlike you.

And, BTW, did you miss that NK probably has nuclear power thanks to Russia? It's not only a legitimate interest.

For example, Serbia wanting to join the EU is a perfectly legitimate interest for both Serbia and the EU.
However, you don't seem to think so...

Certain types of posts and language just raise the hairs at the back of my neck.

www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/02/putin-kremlin-inside-russian-troll-house

It's not going to be one moment, it's going to be an accumulation. Like Merkel letting in another million refugees without the permission of the rest of Europe.

Legitimate and wise are two different things.

Anybody with even the most glancing knowledge of recent history knows that fomenting trouble in the Balkans ends badly for everybody.

The EU can exist perfectly peacably and happily without extending further East. The interests of peace in Europe are best served by allowing Russia a defensive breathing space from the EU. Russia has made it quite clear that if the EU encroaches further East they will see that as an aggressive act and defend themselves.

I think accepting that a buffer zone is needed in the interests of peace is quite sensible. So why are the EU so intent on not doing that when they are aware it antagonises Russia and risks peace? Why are they so set on areas like Ukraine and Serbia? What do they have that the EU wants so much?

I suspect the answer is that their strategic importance means that Russia would be far more vulnerable to attack if they were under western control. So not wise, and perhaps not legitimate either:

Oh fuck off Lweji. I'm sitting on the toilet in a bathroom in South Yorkshire not in fucking troll house in Moscow. And the closest I've ever come to espionage is watching the Milk Tray advert.

Basically you are fully signed up to your own agenda and can't deal with anyone who disagrees with you.

I think you might be being a little bit hysterical. Why does everything have to go down hill? For all we know things may vastly improve over the next two decades. If I had to pick one though I would say when David Cameron refused to act on Syria in 2013. The rise of Isis (or Assad's muster of innocent children) may not have much of an effect t on western society but just look at the state of the Middle East. The only reason that it isn't a world war is because the world doesn't care anymore.

Your initial post:

In my own opinion I think it's quite likely that as far as Europe is concerned the 'tipping point' may well be when the EU turned from a mutual trading organisation concerned with peace and cooperation with some centralised legislative powers to an organisation focused on federalism and aggressive expansionism which provoked it's neighbours.

Nothing about wiseness, just aggressive expansionism...