Really fucked off with Euro exchange rate

[GrumpyOldBag]

We have been going on holiday self-catering to the same place in Europe for over 10 years.

This year everything feels prohibitively expensive - to the point where it is really inhibiting what we can choose to do.

We are here for 2 weeks and it's really hard as family of 4 (with 2 teenagers) to spend less than £100/euros a day on activities/eating out.

Not in a beach resort type place, so taking a picnic to the beach for the day isn't an option - nearly everything there is to do here costs money. 3 euros for a coffee, 3 for an ice-cream - it all quickly adds up. Even the 'cheap' food in the supermarket is expensive. Practically at parity with £.

Bloody Brexit!

^Low property prices from a weak pound will be very popular with rich overseas buyers.

How exactly will Brexit benefit people struggling with housing?^

I was looking at the Deloitte International property investment report earlier in the week. Property prices in London for overseas investors have indeed fallen by about 9% due to the weak pound. However unless they view the current currency weakness as short term it doesn't make long term investment sense. Gross rental yields of 2% are some of the lowest in the World and yet rents in London are already some of the highest in the World relative to incomes (constraining ability to increase rents).

There are better opportunities in mainland Europe.

www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/at/Documents/real-estate/property-index-6th-edition-2017.PDF

Unfortunately, those most in favour of a hard Brexit are also in favour of a very low-regulation economy (see comments by Jacob Rees-Mogg as an example), which would see wages and conditions deteriorating for most people.

"There was a news piece when I was in France last week exploring the benefits of the weak pound. There was lots of gloating about how cheap it was to visit the UK and how the value of the pound had plummeted. Sadly a lot of us don't own hotels, icecream stalls, shops etc so won't see the benefits. The suggestion that everyone just rents their house out is laughable."

This misunderstands the value of 'tourism'. Its not about an ice cream seller selling more ice creams. Its people visiting spending significantly in the host nation. As the OP points out, shes budgeting 100 euros a day and that doesnt include accomodation, travel, tolls etc. You look at total spend, lets say 2000eus for argument sake for one family, between 10% and 25% will go to the government coffers. This is exactly why Ryanair are paid to fly to Limoges.

On the euro inflation, the ECB are meeting next week and are concerned. Its not in their interests to allow this to continue, so expect adjusting action pretty shortly. If the euro goes any higher, theyre getting into big shit scenarios. Dont forget theyve QE'd to the tune of trillions.

Is it? How are the part time, under employed, zero hours, low wage growth jobs doing?

Oh they are doing wonderfully, lots of them...course you can usually only get one at a time because the employer expects you to be ready for them at any time

I have had my hours cut...pesky minimum wage

On a brighter note i have just had my appraisal...i am outstanding apparently. But there are no pay rises or job progression sooooo, relatively pointless

"Other EU member states do not have the wage stagnation that we have and many other EU members ban zero hours contracts."

????????

Heres a bit of reading.

www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/

www.forbes.com/sites/dinamedland/2017/08/09/modern-slavery-risks-to-supply-chains-rise-across-europe-as-migrants-exploited/

Caroline's the post was about wage stagnation. Most recently available data (to end 2015) shows UK joint bottom with Greece for real wage growth. Can't imagine this has improved since then given higher inflation.

This backs up the points above about our low unemployment rate masking structural issues with low pay, enforced part-time and zero hours contracts.

Sadly a lot of us don't own hotels, icecream stalls, shops etc so won't see the benefits

Look at the bigger picture. That's more tax revenue paid to HMRC on higher profits. More shops, hotels, etc that are staying open and not closing down and turning into derelict blots on the landscape. Shops and hotels staying open pay taxes and council tax, and employing people, who in turn pay taxes etc. Don't forget the factories supplying to tourist trade. It goes right through the economy - far more than just money in tills at the sharp end. A single popular tourist attraction has the capability of lifting an entire area - hence why some enlightened local authorities provide support and grants to encourage tourist attractions to choose their town!

But its not the most recent data Pebbles.

Heres current wage growth back to 2005.

Sorry Caroline I meant that was the most recent comparative data I could find showing the UK v other developed economies, not just UK data. I don't have country by country data for real growth since end of 2015 but your graph does show that while UK wages have grown nominally, real wages have remained at the same level as a decade ago. Increased cost of imports will only make inflation increase, which won't help real wage growth.

Other EU member states do not have the wage stagnation that we have and many other EU members ban zero hours contracts

Hahaha what a load of tosh.

Not rubbish at all increasingly. I posted one graph above that shows our real wage growth compared to other developed economies above and others are easy to find if you search.

It is also very easy to find out online which countries have regulations in zero hours contracts. According to the full facts website, the UK is one of about half a dozen member states that uses zero hours contracts frequently. In other states they are either outlawed or heavily regulated.

Do you have any evidence to the contrary?

Interesting analysis of the wage / employment trade off post crash. UK has had stagnating wages but also falling unemployment and positive net immigration of workers. Greece has had falling wages and falling employment.

touchstoneblog.org.uk/2016/07/uk-real-wages-decline-10-severe-oecd-equal-greece/

Interesting read howabout. Greece does seem to have the worst of all worlds.

pebbles it is all the shite about the UK is worse than other countries. You can find statistics to prove anything you want. OK we have low wage growth, perhaps due to migration and the EU some would say....! But we have relatively decent wages in the first place. Much of the EU has pretty much entirely seasonal work, Croatia, Greece for example. There are some truly poor economies which are losing all young talent. Youth unemployment in Spain at one point was approaching 50%. But yeah the rest of the EU is better and had better employment rights, if you've found some measure that says so. Rather than harping on about how wonderful it is elsewhere maybe we should put a plan together about what we want and how we get there.

Sorry just seen the comments about tax

Should just point out that 10 of us work in my shop

2 are full time and pay tax

The rest are part time on just over minimum wage and pay no tax

Just to make the point with data about the use and missuse of stats here are a couple of links to the OECD raw stats. UK earnings are slightly behind Germany, broadly in line with France and roughly double Greece.

data.oecd.org/earnwage/average-wages.htm#indicator-chart

Germany and the UK have roughly comparable unemployment rates but the UK workforce has expanded by almost 7% over the last 10 years while the comparison for Germany is just under 2%.

www.keepeek.com/Digital-Asset-Management/oecd/employment/oecd-labour-force-statistics-2016_oecd_lfs-2016-en#page1

how about a poster upthread posted about low-wage, part-time, zero hours contract jobs. I wanted to know how Brexit would help with this. Pro-Brexit arguments often make the point about high unemployment in some EU countries in comparison to the UK, which is true. However, the argument I am trying to make is that full employment in this country is not necessarily a great thing if people in employment are not earning enough to make ends meet. As far as I can see, this is down to UK government policy, not the EU.

I totally agree that looking at the global picture, UK wages are very good. But in real-terms wages haven't grown and inflation is only going to get higher if Sterling continues its downward trend. People who are employed but on low wages are going to struggle with higher costs. I cannot see how leaving the EU is going to help, and I worry that it is those lowest-earners who are going to be worst hit. The wealthy will continue to be fine.

I am not claiming that other countries don't have their own economic problems, but none of them seem to feel that leaving the EU will help.

I wanted to know how Brexit would help with this

Very much depends on the economy and competition for jobs. My city voted Remain. I voted Remain. We now have a lot of service sector jobs especially in areas of shops and cafes. I do wonder if they simply aren't paying enough to attract staff.

So more vacancies, increased competition for staff, higher pay?

But then again...that means increased staff costs, increased costs for such sectors, they increase their prices, people don't come...

It's complicated.

I do wonder if they simply aren't paying enough to attract staff.

That and the hours I reckon

Pebbles expanding on my point about the 7% increase in the UK workforce over the last 10 years this has largely come from immigration from lower wage countries - these workers have had a pay rise relative to if they had not come to the UK so the claim that no-one in the UK has had a payrise in 10 years is somewhat misleading. To the extent that the UK has absorbed workforce from the EU it has suppressed unemployment in rEU.

Given these effects UK low wage growth despite low unemployment is not as inexplicable as often claimed.

If you can't fill low paid jobs, it's because you're not paying enough.
I said it earlier in the thread, that although it's been proven that immigration has a positive effect on society as a whole, it's also been consistently shown that it has a negative effect on unskilled jobs.
Because businesses will essentially turn the minimum wage into a maximum wage, and if you don't want to do the work for that money, they'll find an EE who will.
People used to be able to feed their families being labourers/lorry drivers, etc. Not anymore. But most of mumsnet didn't care and preferred to accuse people of racism when this was all brought up in prior years

I think really that it's all so complex that it is difficult to have a really meaningful debate on MN about it. Everything has positives and negatives including EU workers, the exchange rate, 'flexible' workforce etc. Plus there are the external factors that the UK has precious little control over (so oil price changes for example).

And in terms of wage levels - in one way what you earn doesn't matter that much, it depends on cost of living. For me one of the UK's biggest issues is actually lack of affordable housing rather than wages per se. But migration has led to higher demand for housing, like it or not because people have to live somewhere. Yes, we could have done more building but that would also gave opposition as our country is crowded, has a tendency to flood etc.

But those jobs need to be filled regardless of housing. All immigrants aren't just in disposable jobs such as fruit picking- they're working in the NHS,teaching,working in IT....

We need immigrants and more housing. I think they've finally woken up to the housing issue as I'm seeing a lot more building of cheaper homes everywhere. There is plenty of land not on flood plains. Some members of society want it all. Their services running like clockwork and younger members of their families with housing but they don't want building in their backyard.

But those jobs need to be filled regardless of housing

Quite - if the service sector jobs aren't filled - or the pay is increased so that people do take them, then that will leave a gap elsewhere.

Or the service sector collapses / companies close because they can't get the staff.

It's such a complicated system with a lot of 'chaos' theory - variables that we probably don't even know about that have an effect.

But Orlantia not necessarily. Increased population in itself leads to more jobs and successful economies adapt to make the best use of their human capital. If the UK had a lower population there would be less jobs.