Seth AbramsonVerified account @SethAbramson 47m
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(21) Grand jury witnesses are under oath, so they can't pull a Kushner and say they'll only testify privately and unsworn. So: new ballgame.
(22) Mueller can now get docs people don't want to give him and force major witnesses to either testify or plead the Fifth on the record.
(23) More importantly, he can at his leisure secure indictments against any Russiagate figure against whom he has probable cause of a crime.
(24) So if Mueller wants to charge Manafort/Kushner with major/minor crimes to get them to roll on Trump, he now can. Whenever he wants.
(25) Probable cause isn't a "more likely than not [defendant] committed the crime" standard. It's a "reasonable basis to believe" standard.
(26) There's consensus Mueller has "prima facie" felonies (cases he, on their face, could win at trial) against Kushner, Manafort and Trump.
(27) "Probable cause" is a lower standard than that which most legal analysts say Mueller has already crossed with respect to those 3 men.
(28) For instance, Kushner violated FARA; Trump obstructed justice. It seems clear Mueller has way past "probable cause" on those cases now.
(29) But as flight isn't an issue (Trump won't run) and this is a very public case, Mueller likely did not move to a GJ to get Trump now.
(30) CNN is reporting Mueller has impaneled the grand jury to cross Trump's "red line" and look into Trump family business ties with Russia.
(31) CNN is also reporting Mueller may see some "low-hanging fruit" (easy/easy-ish indictments) with respect to Manafort, Kushner and Flynn.
(32) Mueller would always go after those indictments first a) to use leverage to get those men to cooperate, b) because they've no immunity.
(33) By comparison, the most Mueller can do as to Trump is refer indictments to the DOJ, which the DOJ then refers for possible impeachment.
(34) While DOJ might be able to indict a sitting president, they couldn't try him unless/until Congress acted on DOJ referral and impeached.
(35) So does this grand jury impaneling mean someone will definitely get indicted? No. Can you indict without a grand jury? No.
(36) But to be clear analysts agree prima facie (on their face) crimes occurred here, which means Mueller can get indictments if he wants.
(37) Forcing Kushner, Manafort, and others to testify creates a catch-22: either these men perjure themselves, confess, or plead the Fifth.
(38) Also involved in this case is a man, Carter Page, who appears to be a perjury machine—IOW, any testimony he gives will be perjurious.
(39) So this newly impaneled grand jury is every bit as likely to create new crimes (i.e., perjury) as uncover and/or indict older ones.
(40) It also means Trump must fire Mueller ASAP if he plans to; Mueller can now get indictments whenever he wants—that wasn't true before.
(41) This D.C. grand jury is a daily threat to Trump. Mueller can act, secretly, to indict Trump sons/aides on major felonies at any time.
(42) There are different views on whether Mueller can refer an indictment of Trump prior to issuing his last report to the DOJ later on.
(43) The DOJ reg appointing Mueller asks him to make one report to DOJ when his work is done, not issue piecemeal indictments against Trump.
(44) But if Mueller seeks documents from Trump and Trump resists, that fight will almost certainly go public. Same with Manafort docs, &c.
(45) There are serious penalties for grand jurors leaking, but witnesses asked to testify/produce docs do speak publicly on those demands.
(46) A sign Mueller lagged in impaneling a GJ is how quickly he's moving now: CNN reports he's now asking for docs from Don on June
(47) Here's what we should assume: a) Mueller will find every piece of incriminating evidence he wants or any attempt to destroy evidence.
(48) b) Mueller will get any witness he wants to confess, plead the Fifth, commit perjury, or offer immunized testimony against a higher-up.
(49) c) America will soon learn what attorneys have long known: many of those "misstatements" that passed as "politics" will now be crimes.
(50) d) The pace of Russia news, Russia leaks and White House response (including possible action against Mueller) will now explode. {end}