Is this just real life? Is this just fantasy? ScaraMooch, keep your hands away from me. Trump continued

[orlantina]

Because the last thread filled up REALLY quickly.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/2986638-Seans-gone-Its-sad-Great-guy-Going-to-miss-him-Trump-continued?

Russia, North Korea, Iran: The Comprehensive Sanctions Bill Currently on Trump's Desk

www.lawfareblog.com/russia-north-korea-iran-comprehensive-sanctions-bill-currently-trumps-desk

You might be interested in this CNN piece, Pain.

What big fat bubble?

I imagine that anyone on the inside must be up to their neck in it with regard to Russia, or else the rewards they are offered by turning a blind eye and lying through their teeth mean they throw whatever prnciples they have out of the White House window.

I'm afraid my grasp of the stock markets leaves a lot to be desired!

I understand the hypocrisy of Trump's position and I understand that the market's performance is not necessarily linked to what is happening politically any more (?) but if there was any more to take away from that article, I'm afraid it whizzed straight over my head

It's difficult. My own view is that Russia didn't expect Trump to win. They tried to help him but with a view to him making a very good showing. Then, they expected to have to deal with a much-hampered HRC, with a hostile Congress and 45 roaming everywhere and working people up.

Then he made it - so now they're playing the cards they've been dealt.

He has the market linked to his overall performance in his own mind, Pain. (I think. I doubt he understands finance at all.) When he has nothing else to point to, he thinks he can point to that. Lord help us when it crashes.

It's ok if the stock market prices reflect good profit reports from companies. The trouble (from my limited knowledge) is when companies' values are over inflated, i.e. the stock value is way above what they are worth in practice. There can be a crash if it's shown that those companies have been using creative accounting to show they are worth more than they are.

When he has nothing else to point to, he thinks he can point to that.

Definitely.

Ah I see! I don't think it'll be a problem (this is based less on my economic knowledge and more on Trump's repeated behaviour) - he'll brush it off like he does the unfavourable polls and might even revert to one of the many positions he's held before (inflation and big bubbles = bad) and crow about it. His inconsistencies are driven by one constant - that Trump is the bigliest bestest - and reality and evidence can be bent like a balloon animal to suit the current narrative.

He might wish to bend reality, but if the market goes - and people are now talking 'when' and 'how' and not 'if' - then his base will perhaps take a different view.

Wow. How many more little Trumps can the world take?

thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/344902-trumps-daughter-in-law-hosts-real-news-program-on-his-facebook-page

Would that take shape in the form of a recession?

They should be keeping quiet. They're not much liked by the base.

I don't know, Pain. I doubt it. Much depends on other factors though.

Unless his base are hit hard financially with less disposable income, job losses etc, I can't see that they'd change their minds. Similar to Brexit but on a more resolutely blinkered way, I think.

If the market goes down - and there's nothing else big to show for their support - then even the base will be rocked, I reckon. (Why do you think he keeps lauding it?) And remember, his base is only a minority percentage of the population.

You all might be interested in this piece.

NK: US does not seek regime change

Of course, that's only Tillerson speaking.

Mixed messages again? Communication is a mess.

He's signed the Russian sanctions bill. No ceremony, just a statement.

And sent two normal(ish) tweets. Bit SHOUTY but not actually offensive.

He's being well-behaved for Kelly. Who knows how long it will last, of course.

Yes it will be interesting to watch.

I'll say until Saturday morning. This week.

I was unduly cynical about the signing of the bill, but am pleased to be wrong!

Talk on twitter of how trump is more focussed in meeting and can actual shares facts and figures! The miracle of Kelly

Kelly believes in service. 45 does not, I fear.

Trump has just released statements on the sanctions bill.

www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/02/statement-president-donald-j-trump-signing-countering-americas

Part of it

Still, the bill remains seriously flawed – particularly because it encroaches on the executive branch’s authority to negotiate. Congress could not even negotiate a healthcare bill after seven years of talking. By limiting the Executive’s flexibility, this bill makes it harder for the United States to strike good deals for the American people, and will drive China, Russia, and North Korea much closer together. The Framers of our Constitution put foreign affairs in the hands of the President. This bill will prove the wisdom of that choice.

Yet despite its problems, I am signing this bill for the sake of national unity. It represents the will of the American people to see Russia take steps to improve relations with the United States. We hope there will be cooperation between our two countries on major global issues so that these sanctions will no longer be necessary.

Further, the bill sends a clear message to Iran and North Korea that the American people will not tolerate their dangerous and destabilizing behavior. America will continue to work closely with our friends and allies to check those countries’ malignant activities.

I built a truly great company worth many billions of dollars. That is a big part of the reason I was elected. As President, I can make far better deals with foreign countries than Congress

He really didn't want to sign it, did he?

I'm also far from an economist, my best credential on the subject matter being that I get some shares as part of my compensation package. But here's an interesting point out of a discussion with a colleague who does, in fact, work in the financial services industry:

His take is basically that, in financial services in particular, there's somewhat of a Trump-bubble going on in that the industry is expecting and hence betting on at least a partial but (from their POV ideally full) roll-back of post 08 checks and regulation. Perhaps even a move towards further de-regulation. The expectation of future profits to be gained out of this is leading to soaring share prices.

There are, of course, at least two major risks involved here: First of all, the expected developments might just not materialise. This would obviously leave the industry overvalued with all the implications of that. Risk #2 is way scarier, though: de-regulation DOES happen and an already over-confident industry goes to town exposing the global economy to basically pre-08 conditions, including - crucially - the potential for a possibly even bigger 08-style crisis.

Or at least that's basically what my understanding was out of the conversation. It's quite scary, actually. I do not recommend speaking to financial services experts if optimism is your thing.