To think we couldn't really be in a worse position to start Brexit negotiations tomorrow

[Bearbehind]

My reason for voting Remakn was always that there was no credible case for Leaving imo.

One year on and on the eve of negotiations, we are in a worse position than ever before

• we don't have a majority government
• we don't have even the beginnings of a consensus of the type of Brexit we should aim for
• people are realising that 'a few years pain for long term gain' is going to hurt too much

Are there any positives here?

Statistically speaking, EU nationals in this country put more in than they get out of the UK benefits system.

Tax credits aren't included in those figures though. If they were the picture would be somewhat different.

I'm feeling really reassured by the Leavers who have posted their vision for our glorious future.

It's like the past 12 months of absolute posturing bullshit and monumental incompetence hasn't happened, and we're actually setting out to negotiate with a proper plan, a fully-researched programme and an internationally-renowned crack team of brilliant negotiators.

Oh, and as if the EU (and the rest of the world) need us more than we need them, so in no time they'll be kowtowing to our mighty wondrousness and offering us everything we ever wanted.

Cuppa Aren't these the areas that Cameron negotiated? EU access to in-work and social benefits should have a time restriction on? Interesting you say 'the picture would be somewhat different' if tax credits were taken into account because most sources I've read say this information is impossible to determine because of data weaknesses.

cuppa tax credits are in work benefits, aren't they? How do they effect the thing you're moaning about- such as health and education? Surely that just proves that EU migrants are paying their way just like the rest of us so deserve the same access to services.

I'm not sure that there would be a difference if they were included. Are you saying that proportionally more EU migrants claim tax credits than UK citizens?

Some helpful info from two very different sources:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/datablog/2015/nov/10/eu-migrants-on-benefits-separating-the-statistics-from-the-spin

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.newstatesman.com/politics/welfare/2015/11/migrant-benefits-qa-how-much-do-they-claim-there-problem-and-what-does-pm%3famp

Not that I expect you'll actually read them cuppa. You seem a bit post-truth.

I had nearly forgotten that phrase Nanny. Somehow I don't think this era in Britain is going to go down well in the history books.

No I'm saying that there are many Eastern Europeans with families where one spouse works in a low paid job paying a small amount of tax but receives thousands more back in yearly child tax credits than they pay in. But that isn't generally included in statistics looking at work, benefits and net contribution.

On the other hand, you can determine how many EU citizens are employed by the NHS (55,000 out of 1.2 million staff) and that a record number are leaving (17,197) and that applications from EU citizens have dropped by 90%.

Increases in emigration are also driven by EU citizens (117,000 left in 2016).

But maybe this is good news for you...fewer EU citizens claiming in-work tax credits?

In that case, cuppa, I'm interested in your data source for that statement.

Me too because the analysis I've read suggests the opposite- that the figure include a lot of EU nationals (from all over Europe) who are married to UK nationals and the figure include both their spouse and children. So the date includes UK national who claim benefits and have an EU spouse.

Thank you for translating that Pinkglitter - my rudimentary German would definitely not have coped with the original article. Sadly I found myself nodding along. Embarrassing isn't it how other countries view us - if that's what they're writing now I dread to think what the same newspaper will be saying in a year.

The focus on people from Eastern Europe is bizarre. Anecdotally, I could tell you that I live in an area with a large Polish community. I know quite a few Poles- all of them fully employed, hard working and generous. Their children are delightful and hard working at school. Even the ones who have seasonal jobs have them set up in rotation so they are never reliant on benefits. The culture with them seems to be to not accept hand outs.

I could also tell you about several fruit and veg farms I know that vastly prefer to employ Eastern Europeans than the local UK nationals because they turn up on time, work fast and don't let them down. I know of one farmer who won't employ UK nationals because he has been dicked around too much by people accepting work and not turning up- either ever on time or at all- and moaning about how hard the work it.

Some more interesting data:

fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/

Anecdotally, I could tell you that my Polish neighbours in NL are both highly skilled and motivated. Personally believe that anyone who is highly skilled and motivated will never lack work and that a country that seems hellbent on making itself unattractive to highly skilled and motivated people is committing economic suicide. It isn't 'the EU' that is the problem here.

Agreed citroen

Isn't the joke that if someone who can't speak the language and has no contacts can take your job then you should be looking at yourself not them. We don't train our people well and the attitudes to work are different. Our schooling trains students to prefer white collar work to blue collar work and there are a whole swath of parents raising them with huge entitlement.

Who's fault is it if the by product is demotivated and unskilled workers? I would suggest not the EU. We should be tackling the employers who pay too little and our bizarre education system rather than pointing the finger at the people who are prepared to do the work.

Who is going to pick all the fruit and veg if the migrant workers don't come? Are the locals who haven't been arsed for the past decade suddenly going to be motivated to do it?

To be fair, I don't think not wanting to move to a different area of the country (which most unemployed Brits would have to do for agricultural work) with no connections and insufficient amenities for the population needed, for poorly paid and difficult work, makes a person demotivated, unskilled or lazy. Our benefits and housing systems make it very difficult for a person with any kind of ties to do those jobs.

Of course, that also means that stopping EU nationals doing this unskilled work isn't going to magically mean our own unemployed will suddenly be willing and able to do it either. I wouldn't use the phrase 'not been arsed' myself, and it's more than the past decade they haven't been doing it. But the underlying point is correct: we're going to have a problem.

Poverty is not a result of 'not being arsed'. But a mindset that prefers benefits to actual work is troubling.

It depends on the circumstances really.

When we're talking about seasonal agricultural work in areas that are mostly outside the large population centres (with infrastructure to match) a mindset that prefers the security of benefits and one's current, perhaps stable housing to the uncertainty of temporary work away from any support network is sensible. Pure and simple.

If our benefits and housing systems were set up to allow people to take such work without gambling their meagre security, it might be different.

I totally agree that it is internal UK structures that need to be over hauled- housing, education etc. This is what stops people from become highly skilled workers.

The 'not being arsed' I get from my local area. People aren't being asked to travel to get to jobs here. They are in their doorstep. But the complaints are usually that they don't want to work outside, unsociable hours etc. There are a lot of cleaning, restaurant, picking etc jobs going around here. My area is already starting to feel the dip in EU migration.

My point is that non of these causation all factors are the fault of the EU. We should look to ourselves first and how we treat our poor and set up our kids for their independent lives.

TheDog Yes indeed. Those who run welfare systems (often unfairly and incompetently) or control the availability of housing, for example (not building enough), are just as responsible for the outcome.

We're engaging in a collective act of self harm that is already making us weaker and poorer - not to mention being an international laughing stock (and there's plenty of challenge for that particular role). Tragically unbelievable.

Completely agree with this ^

Are there any Leavers who think there are still positives and that this is actually going to work out well in the end?

Yes, my DM, DSF, DSis and DA (aunt). DSF has a first from Cambridge, so I have no idea what his excuse is. The other three have no more than the most basic education between them, which puts them firmly in the stereotypical leave-voter box. However, I've been shocked by now many people I know - people with degress, good jobs, people who read the papers and are happy to talk about politics - are living in cloud cuckoo land. They trot out things like 'it'll all work out in the end', and 'it'll be fine', and 'we managed perfectly well without the EU before'.

I've actually got to the point where I'm considering not reading anything in the papers about Brexit or Trump. Both issues are seriously starting to affect my mental health. I feel angry, anxious and utterly powerless. Both of them are driving my two countries to ruin and making them a laughing stock

'However, I've been shocked by now many people I know - people with degress, good jobs, people who read the papers and are happy to talk about politics - are living in cloud cuckoo land'

I have a friend like this. She reads the Daily Mail every day and trots out the usual poisonous bullshit. Apart from this, she is a sane and compassionate women. I have had to stop talking politics with her because I could feel a little bit of me withering away every time

Oh I'm not saying that no British unemployed people can't be arsed nanny, I'm sure some exist (though to be fair, the jobs you describe sound like they might well be zero hour, in which case again it's perfectly sensible and responsible for the people concerned not to want to take them). Just that, as you say, removing the EU labourers isn't suddenly going to result in British people doing those jobs instead. Not with no other changes being made.

Paradoxically, leave voters giving about people 'not contributing' are very rarely contributing themselves.

Education in the UK is a serious issue. If we don't sort this out as a matter of urgency - and I doubt we will - our economy will be in terminal decline.