AIBU: gut instinct

[ShakyMilk]

Thinking about what advice I would give my younger self and one of them would be: go with your gut.
Have you ever been really glad you trusted your gut instinct? AIBU to ask you to tell me about it?

Did you read the article...

It's not about all scientific research, it's specifically about psychology.

Psychology is in a situation where replicating key studies only results in the same outcome 1/3 of the time. I..e the original outcome can't be verified.

Why don't you read the whole article :)

There is plenty of scientific research IN psychology, was obviously my point. Why don't you try reading some? You could do with some instruction on the scientific method, you obviously have none.

I hate people going on about their gut instinct. It always seems to have a strange correlation with their prejudices. Black man walking behind you? Gasp! Probably a mugger! Are you a racist? Of course not - you just felt it in your gut. hmm

Oh, FFS!!!

That gets me too Spartacus. People who think bold assertion overcomes the scientific method.

Psychology research is in a crisis; this is accepted by many leading research psychologists. The crisis is caused by the fact that the vast majority of psychological findings cannot be replicated.

Just because psychological research is conducted in accordance with the scientific method doesn't mean that it is reliable, or good quality, or has meaningful results.

However, despite this, there is some evidence that "gut feeling" does exist and is useful.

Research in general is suffering due to the non disclosure of negative results etc. Ben Goldacre is good on this.

The fact that you think"psychological research" is some kind of single entity that can be judged that way, and not (like ALL disciplines) made up of the best, the go, the indifferent...all the way down to poor quality...means you shouldn't be commenting on it at all. Especially when you think one opinion piece from a magazine is a good offer of proof.

And Ben Goldacre would be appalled at you quoting his name in such nonsense.

Spartacus, perhaps if you read about it a bit more you will see that it does apply to most of psychology, and it doesn't seem to depend on how well the project is designed...

www.apa.org/pubs/journals/features/law-0000012.pdf

Similar to drugs research (as Ben Goldacre has written!), you can run research perfectly but it doesn't mean the results are good, meaningful or reliable if you don't look at the wider context of what is & isn't being published:
www.badscience.net/2016/10/transparency-beyond-publication-bias-a-video-of-my-super-speedy-talk-at-ije/

But despite that, there is some evidence of gut instinct. And the gift of fear is a great read!

Another great overview from a psychology publication: www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-nature-nurture-nietzsche-blog/201509/quick-guide-the-replication-crisis-in-psychology

I really don't need your amateur links, thanks, I think my PhD will cover it.

People always remember the time they had a gut instinct that was proved correct.

They don't usually remember all the other dozens of times they were wrong because it's not significant enough to remember.

Absolutely agree with this. I know someone who thinks their instincts are incredible because they were right once or twice, despite them accusing people of things all the time in sheer paranoia

I don't ever really feel things in my "gut". Coincidentally, I completed a personality assessment type thing today for work and my "thinking style" it very data and fact driven, so that could explain it.

The only time I ever felt anything was "off" was when I was seeing a bloke and he turned out to have a girlfriend. I don't think this was a gut instinct, although some may feel it was. Looking back (using my retrospectoscope Bertrand) my brain correctly tried to point out that some of his behaviour could be considered a bit suspicious, I just didn't listen as I thought my judgement was skewed having not had a "normal" relationship in so long. Plus I didn't want to be right.

There's no need to be defensive Spartacus, I'm not implying all research in Psychology is worthless - just that a lot of it is highly questionable.

I am sure your PHD made valuable contributions to the field, whether or not it could be replicated.

Nabootique - I think that's exactly what people are saying gut instinct is. A situation you feel is sketchy, but don't want to consciously acknowledge for fear of being rude/breaking up a relationship/being alone/another reason.

Nice back pedalling, but what you actually said was
And all psychological research is deeply suspect

A point that you seem to have acquired from googling "psychology".

You clearly don't know your arse from your elbow, scientifically speaking.

Yes, the research is deeply suspect. That means the same thing as "highly questionable". The fact that only 36% of it can be replicated means the vast majority of psychological conclusions don't hold up beyond the exact original conditions of the study.

If you see some research in psychology, it probably isn't replicable.

Doesn't just apply to pyschology, either!! Although it is worse in psychology.

Doesn't mean they don't spark interesting debate though. And the 36% contain lots of interesting studies.

I'm not sure why you're so upset about this, it's not a personal attack on you.

*People always remember the time they had a gut instinct that was proved correct.

They don't usually remember all the other dozens of times they were wrong because it's not significant enough to remember*

Gut instinct is not something you have on a daily weekly monthly or even yearly basis it is something that happens very very rarely. It is nothing to do with thinking that a person is a rapist or any label. It is more primal than that. More like run , get away, beware.

Errr why is it an attack on you? And do you also think Nature & other journals below are "full of shit"?

www.nature.com/news/over-half-of-psychology-studies-fail-reproducibility-test-1.18248

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2412985

nobaproject.com/modules/the-replication-crisis-in-psychology

No, I think you don't actually understand what you've been reading.

But enough derailing on the thread with your nonsense, please?

Anyway, I still think gut instinct (or just instinct maybe) is a thing which there is some evidence for.

I think women are often told they are "being silly" when they have legitimate fears & concerns, and this trickles down to their personal risk assessments.

So explain it to me with your super duper PHD skills? Why am I wrong to say that only 36% of psychological research can be replicated, and that makes pscyhological research both "highly questionable" and "suspect".

And you're right, I am derailing.

So I'll return to the original point, gut instinct is a thing, and it's something we should listen to more. Women especially.

I won't bother, thank you all the same clearly there would be no point

Oliversmumsarmy I think different people have different views on what it means. To me it means having a strong feeling about someone or something, but there is no logical explanation for it. I have never really had that, personally, but that would be my definition. I don't even think it's necessarily negative. You could like someone instantly without really being able to pinpoint why (assuming you didn't find them physically attractive). The example I gave in mine was logical, looking back on it.

Alyosha I think some people on this thread believe that's what gut instinct is, but I think some think it is something more "woo" (I don't mean that sarcastically. I'm just struggling for a better word - almost like a supernatural sense), which I don't personally. Some are saying logical explanations offered do not explain it.

Gut instinct is not woo. It's your brain picking up on clues and your body reacting before you can consciously make a decision how to react to something.

Before someone asks, I don't have a PhD or billions of scientific links, it's what I think gut instinct is.