From the article 'What “Things Going Wrong” Can Look Like':
measuring these timelines accurately and knowing when to jump is the most basic survival skill I was taught from childhood. While most people who know this skill have the conversation very quietly, late at night, when nobody is around to hear, I also know that this time people are affected who don’t have twenty generations of practicing this behind them, so we need to speak out loud sometimes.
I’m reading this as "1933 playbook continues on schedule, pace slightly higher than last time: something between maybe 1.2x and 2x, but without the possibility of a major land war to show up on the horizon." For foreign-born Muslims and Latinos who are undocumented, related to someone undocumented, or who might be confused for undocumented, I’d say that the red flag is up, and it’s time to consider exit strategies with a 6-month window. US-born Muslims, Latinos who have more stability inside the country, and Jews have a somewhat longer time horizon available, but I’d start quietly thinking about options for when things change. Advice for the black and trans communities is simpler, because everyone already knows it: Organize! The advantage there is in numbers and shared strength, and in community. That’s also good advice for all of the other groups: even if you’re thinking about your exit strategy, you have very good reason to make common cause, and for everyone to work and pull together. That’s the thing that has a chance of preventing all of this, and of saving the most lives when that fails. "