To do a straw poll on whether you're happy with where Brexit is heading?

[Bearbehind]

This isn't about the whys and wherefores of how we got here but, since no one I speak to IRL is happy with the path Brexit is leading us down and I've just seen a poll in the Metro strongly in favour of abandoning Brexit it got me wondering how wide spread it is.

This isn't supposed to be an argument thread or even how you voted, just Are you happy heading towards a hard Brexit

Yes or No

carol, I did clarify that post to say 'many' won't actually tell us the reasons.

I accept some, like you, have given reasons. I don't agree that they were worth the repercussions that will follow but I respect you choice far more than those who did it to keep the foreigners out or as a protest vote on a completely seperate issue or for some meaningless concept like 'taking back control' or 'regaining sovereignity'

I do question how you think we'll end up in a better place though.

Controlling tax a bit more isn't going to provide a solution to the plummeting pound, lack of business confidence, lack of potential to export, potential loss of passporting and so on.

Saying 'we will have more freedom to develop economic policy that suits the U.K.' isall a bit pointless if we've sold ourselves down the river already.

How do you see our economy prospering outside the EU?

Carol your liking brexit is exactly the reason I oppose it. I know exactly what sort of economic decision you'd like to make.

Bear As I have said before, many countries prosper outside the EU.

Smallfox Please enlighten me on the economic decisions I's like to make.

carol please don't cop out with pathetic, meaningless statements like that.

We are an island just off the coast of mainland Europe. Our affiliation with the EU is much more far reaching than that of 'many countries'

How will the UK specifically prosper outside the EU given our reliance on financial services for exports and our lack of manufacturing industry and our almost inextricable link to Europe.

Well your the free market Ayn Rand, why don't you tell me Carol.

As Bear says the "many countries prosper outside the EU" line is a bit false.

None of these other countries have economies that are so intertwined with the EU, or are as heavily reliant on it as a source of exports.

And so it continues. Just saying . . .

Who is the sad woman with the bear?

Carey Mulligan, she was at a protest in London calling on the government to try to stop the bombing in Aleppo.

CarolDecker
many countries prosper outside the EU
Absolutely True.
I have just cast my vote in a well publicised election in one such country.

However it has never been IN the EU so any comparison between it and the UK is facile and insulting to both.

The UK has been IN the EU for four decades.
This is the divorce and decree absolute at the end of a 40 year marriage with lots of contested assets.
Only an idiot would think it will go smoothly.

And as for Liam just join the WTO Fox's view
D'oh
The UK cannot trade under WTO rules until its proposal is accepted by each and every one of the 168 members.
It took China 8 years to achieve that and the world wanted their stuff.
The UK is a net importer.
Nobody will give a shit about ratifying in a hurry.

How will the UK specifically prosper outside the EU given our reliance on financial services for exports and our lack of manufacturing industry and our almost inextricable link to Europe.

The UK has one of the largest manufacturing sectors by value in the world. The sector just employs far fewer people than it used to. It's the same in all other developed countries.

The UK 'exports' financial services all over the world. The reason for its strength is partly timezone and partly a legal system that has become very sophisticated re financial transactions. The EU is a very important market, but I am told it only comprises 20% of total UK exports of financial services. However, see this very interesting article.

As for the inextricable link to Europe: this is true, but to my mind this is all the more reason why UK and EU political leaders should drop the intransigence they have been showing towards each other so far. We are going to have to live with each other, just on somewhat different terms. In any event, the UK used to have stronger trade links outside Europe, and that only changed because of entry into the EC, which required breaking those links.

I am told that behind the scenes there is frustration, anger, arguments on both sides. Particularly on the EU side, it will only take one member to torpedo a deal. I'm appalled at how politicians on both sides of the Channel have so comprehensively dropped the ball on this one. Unless they get their act together, we will continue to have an extremely dangerous situation. Who knows, for example, if Putin - perceiving European weakness - decides to take a bite out of the Baltic states?

In the meantime, we have the old dominions - Aus, NZ, Canada - all ready to offer the UK trade deals as soon as they can be legally concluded. However, the UK government has indicated that it is shutting the door on immigration even from those countries. While trade and immigration are separate things, those countries regard the exchange of citizens with the UK as a beneficial thing for them, and they will not take yet another removal of immigration rights from its citizens very lightly.

The size of our financial exports to the EU is larger than our current size of the trade with all 3 of those countries combined. Those countries are also in their own trading blocs and have EU deals as a priority.

That article is interesting though this bit:

"Unless May soon changes course, Britain and its economy could face a decade or more of debilitating uncertainty. This is the amount of time it could take to negotiate a new trading relationship with the EU, which absorbs approximately 44 percent of UK exports and is by far its largest market. The British government knows that in a little more than two years Britain will lose its access to the European single market, the price it must pay for its hostility to immigration from the EU. But it has no way of knowing what trading regime with the EU will take its place.

It must now embark on a series of marathon negotiations with its EU ex-partners, certain only in the knowledge that the trading regime that will emerge from them may be far less favorable to business located in Britain than the one that exists now. It is hard to imagine a set of circumstances more likely to convince foreign businesses in Britain that they should act on their warnings to leave the country or reduce their presence there, and instead take up residence within the secure confines of the Single European Market. The British economy and the British people will suffer the consequences."

Is very accurate.

smallfox,

The old dominions are watching the situation very closely. I'm not so sure about Canada but Aus and NZ are not in any exclusive trading bloc at all. While they have trade deals with various countries, none of those trade deals actually obstruct any member from negotiating with any other country in the way the EU does with each of its member states. Aus and NZ have already indicated that they would make a trade deal with the UK a priority. There is a possiblity that EU politicos have already been trying to chill preliminary discussions.

Unfortunately we are talking about a market (including Canada) of 60m people versus 500m....

carol This may seem an odd question but you appear to be following on the view that we need to go down the free market economics route, which is actually a sound theory but currently our own market is not free enough to work within that. What is your view on the continuation or not of the NHS?

Was it this thread or a different one where someone claimed that there were a "lot of brilliant minds" working on Brexit?
Wonder how the brilliant minds are liking the fact that there's about to be a mass financial services exodus? Especially seeing as how the UK economy has been somewhat reliant on said services.
I'm at the point of incredulous laughter.

@Toad

Why do confirmed Brexiters insist on holding up Australia as a great example of a nation doing well from free trade?
The Australian economy is in a desperate state - and will be further damaged by the damage Brexit is already doing to a fragile global economy. Anyone who thinks Australia is doing well has not been there in recent years.

www.theguardian.com/business/2016/sep/16/glenn-stevens-all-change-at-reserve-bank-but-australian-economy-stays-headed-for-rocks

Agree with Toad, I am amazed how often I see places like New Zealand mentioned on threads like this. It only has a population of 4 million people. Trade with them by all means, but don't rely on them to replace the EU!

Population EU: 510 million now - once minus UK then 445 million

Population Canada: 35 million
Population Australia: 23 million
Population NZ: 4 million

Exactly Toast.
Before the vote, Brexiters supporters actually called one of my posts "bollocks and scaremongering" when I said companies and banks would look to leave the UK if we left the EU taking thousands of jobs away.
An unmitigated disaster.

toad, thanks for the reply but it doesn't really answer my question. I asked how the UK will prosper.

IMO that means how we will improve on what we had in the EU not just how we'll get by. Otherwise, what was the point?

The pound has plummeted so if we can increase exports that will be beneficial but what realistically can we export more of?

What do we want from Aus/ Nz and Canada that isn't already on our doorstep in the EU? And likewise, what do they want from us that's worth transporting half way round the world?

How can we replace the loss of financial services exports if we loss passporting rights?

Given we are a net importer, how can any of the above compensate for the fact that everything we import, including inputs for exports has just shot up in price?

What about the astronomical amount of time and money that will be spent on the negotiations themselves which wouldn't have been necessary if we Remained?

Surfer you can have very specific rules about how a referendum is won.

e.g.

Australia: At the referendum the proposed alteration must be approved by a 'double majority'. That is:

• a national majority of voters in the states and territories
• a majority of voters in a majority of the states (i.e. at least four out of six states). Voting in referendums is compulsory for enrolled voters. In referendums, voters are required to write either 'yes' or 'no' on the ballot paper in response to each question listed.

Surfer you can have very specific rules about how a referendum is won

Ok fair enough, other countries do things differently. But with the EU referendum ( & the Scottish independence one ) it was a simple majority vote wins.

surfer you are probably one of Remains best allies on these threads. You are clearly reading them but can't answer any questions.

Are you ever going to explain why you think EU immigration needs further controlling or what the other negatives of being in the EU are?

I'm not reading most of them tbh. If I wanted to talk all things Brexit I'd still be on the referendum board. I'm not.

no

Are you ever going to explain why you think EU immigration needs further controlling or what the other negatives of being in the EU are

No I'm not, because it's a complete waste of my time & yours. Whatever I say will be 'wrong' & will lead to further interrogation from you.
I can't be bothered & that's the truth.

So that's a no then?

Rather proves the problem doesn't it?