To do a straw poll on whether you're happy with where Brexit is heading?

[Bearbehind]

This isn't about the whys and wherefores of how we got here but, since no one I speak to IRL is happy with the path Brexit is leading us down and I've just seen a poll in the Metro strongly in favour of abandoning Brexit it got me wondering how wide spread it is.

This isn't supposed to be an argument thread or even how you voted, just Are you happy heading towards a hard Brexit

Yes or No

valentine I don't really know how to tell you how to relate to people who operate on different level, other than saying to just realise they're out there and their process of thinking isn't incorrect just different There was a very good lesson I was taught once regarding time visualisation that probably explains it better than I ever could. This was years ago though so I'll dig it up if I can find it.

I know stats and data people who did vote brexit (tbf they are the ones who didn't get the concept of unleashing xenophobia, because that didn't occur to them as a consequence and therefore didn't make their lists ).

I am a stats and data person but I find visual people are the hardest to deal with because they can't communicate well with me and I can't with them. However a lot of the visual people I know voted remain. They literally cannot give points and stats as to why.

I also know and am sadly related to some downright xenophobes at best. I try to keep the smug smile inside as the shocking horror of what they've done has hit home via the Tory Conference. Not that they'd admit they were wrong though.

fluffy so glad you are here to enlighten us. Leave the EU is an action, it's not a plan. If you want to change jobs, or leave your husband you don't just get up and wander out. Why on earth do you think that would apply here? A plan would involve some form of concrete provision - or at this point we will accept a decent ducking hint - for our economy, rights, and non-British citizens. Are we leaving the single market? What will be done to shore up the free fall of the pound? Will our friends, families and colleagues who aren't from the UK still be ok here in 5 years? THAT's a plan....

Yes that would be a plan. A plan that Cameron and his cronies should have made just in case UK were to vote leave. He didn't make a plan did he? Nobody knows how Brexit will affect the UK. Nobody knows whether it will be a bad thing or a good thing. Why are you so intent on focussing on doom and gloom?

Why are you so intent on focussing on doom and gloom

Maybe because no one can actually tell us what there is to look forward to.

Saying no one knows how it will work out when you have chosen it is more than a bit of a cop out.

Surely you have some aspirations for how Leaving will work out?

You've seen on this thread there are a lot of people with very real concerns- is there anything you can offer that might help them see why you think it was the right decision?

nobody knows whether it will be a bad thing or a good thing.why are you so intent on focussing on doom and gloom?
According to how you are presenting this fluffy, it is a dice and could have a 50% chance of goon going horribly wrong. We usually never take that kind of chance in our daily lives and specially never for our children. this is the livelihood of whole country (certainly no one can believe it for a minute that it will directly affect people like Farage or Cameron and his cronies?
Your other point plan that Cameron and his cronies should have made just in case UK were to vote leave. He didn't make a plan did he?
When was the last time these guys tried really hard to save us the people? The austerity measures, the lies about budget targets, the bankers escaping any punishment, the illegal wars abroad that brought on this refugee crisis.. When it comes to peanuts, they do give us those. Whenever it comes to big and life changing decisions, I wouldn't buy a sack of anything from them unless I have a long hard discussion and even then I would try to err on the side of caution. he didn't have a plan,went ahead and we have this mess. May says she has a plan or is making one.. you want to trust her?

magik
That's very confusing for me. It would be great if you share that study or link please.

It looksime the government has set out to make everyone equally unhappy!

No, not happy with the outcome, but I never expected to be.

plan that Cameron and his cronies should have made just in case UK were to vote leave

See I just don't understand this viewpoint.

Leavers keep telling us that Remainers are vile traitors who can't be trusted because they want Britain to fail so they can say "I told you so" etc etc. But then if asked, well what is the Plan, then they say that it's not the responsibility of the Leave side - the leaders of the Remain campaign should have made the Plan.

WTF?

I really do hope that sense will be seen and we stay in the end. If only because I'd love to see the disappointment on Juncker's face when he doesn't get rid of us after all ;)

One does feel like the wife of a spurned husband though. "Well if you leave, don't come crawling back to us, you've chosen to leave so don't expect a good deal, you should know what side your bread is buttered on" etc etc. Although I want us to stay in, the bit of me that would like to cut my nose off to spite my face does want to say "get lost then" and stop with the threats. We do get a good deal from the EU at the moment but it is not perfect and a bit of humility on the EU's side would be good. Not necessarily towards the UK exactly, but just to accept that it is not a perfect institution and it needs reform.

I know at least one person who voted to Leave because they thought there would be another renegotiation - a proper one this time - we'd have a second referendum and the EU would back down on some issues. I don't think that's going to happen without some sort of major crisis. More of a crisis than migration or Greece or losing one of your major contributors to the budget.

Oh yes, and don't forget that just about the only person who did make a plan was Mark Carney. A man much maligned by leave voters. So even if someone has a plan, they're still out to get us

valentine you may have to bear with me, my Google fu is letting me down right now!
Basically it boiled down to when you close your eyes how you visualise the flow of time. There's two main ways. People either see time as flowing left to right directly in front of them (like reading a book or data table, all laid out in front of you) or they see time as projecting out from behind them to ahead of them (so the past and future are not as accessible as the present). Of course everyone's placement of where the past, present and future varies on their lines, so some are narrow and some are very wide. People with narrower lines do things like plan better because they can easily access time. People with wider lines struggle with exercises like planning.
I'm a behind to ahead planner, with quite a wide line. Everyone I've worked with agrees that I'm an arsehole when asked to give a timeline. Which fits because I'm an analytical type and my focus is on ruling out things that could crop up in the present. A weakness for planning but also a strength because I'm better at risk appraisal than those who can say 'his job will take 5 hours' off the bat.

Why are you so intent on focussing on doom and gloom

Maybe because no one can actually tell us what there is to look forward to.

THIS.

Can ANY of you leavers tell me the benefits of leaving the EU? Please? Anyone?

Doom and gloom?

Because none of the reasons for leaving, nor the benefit stand up to scrutiny.

myfavourite I've heard a few people say that about renegotiation too, and to be fair it would fit in far more with other eu countries who actually do hold referenda often. I think the problem is we set our stall out as if the referendum says leave, we will leave then Farage went in there being a complete knobhead, so they look like they cba with us. I do have this sinking suspicion that the eu would be better without us in it, given how little we engaged properly within it!

The fact is we are leaving. UK voted to leave. It's a bit pointless worrying whether it is going to be all doom and gloom. There is nothing at all we can do about it. We will just have to wait and see. It's all a bit pointless pre-empting what may or may not happen. No there was no plan for Brexit. There was no definite plan for remain either. In fact it wasn't very well thought out at all was it? By either side

It is interesting to see people say that the UK will be more self reliant and in fact export more goods after brexit. Also how even now exports are booming as a taste of brexit.

Any UK export product that needs raw materials imported will start to increase in price in a while as the imported raw materials will cost more of the weaker pound. That just hasn't kicked in yet. The economists on the brexit soapbox said that in fact UK manufacturing would be a price to pay as cheaper foreign goods were imported. Their labour costs and overheads are cheaper etc. What is left of UK manufacturing that is, which is a small part of the economy.

That would lead me to believe the UK would become even more reliant on imported goods as it would be difficult to compete. People are also talking about UK higher wages, which would drive up UK costs even more. That is the reason Dyson moved from the Swindon area to Asia. He said labour costs were too high in the UK. So anticipating that when all the Poles etc go home the wages would increase, maybe those manufacturers would also move like Dyson.

However, I have heard that India includes a free movement for it's workers in their trade agreements. So when Boris et al go to strike a deal they will have to include the free movement of Indian workers instead of EU workers. That might bring the labour costs right back down again. India has a few more nationals than the EU.

Maybe there will be a referendum after every trade deal to rescind it.

The only fact is that a referendum was held and the slight majority voted to leave. Its not a fact that we're leaving the EU at all. That doesn't become a fact until after Article 50 is triggered and the process is complete.

What plan was needed to remain though? We just sort of, well, remain. There's be more coherency about next steps forward though than we have now.

Any catch PMQs today? All fairly interesting. Theresa May has tried to back track around her admission that article 50 negotiations will probably take longer than 2 years.
Philip Hammond has been up in front of the Treasury Select Committee and has pointed out that the treasury economic models regarding Brexit are all incorrect as they assumed Article 50 would be triggered immediately and failed to account for the BoE doing their economy saving work (and some stuff about the UK being after a bespoke deal now).

But hey, those people on here who've been saying just that are just moaners right?

Carney did amazing work. I wonder how much it has cost?

And Theresa May can only hope the EU agrees to extend the process. I am sure they will get the budget issues out of the way first and the UK's commitment to paying it's share going forward.

It will be interesting, at least.

One reason I voted Leave was to take control over UK tax policy.

carol which aspects of UK taxation are you referring to specifically that will change when we leave the EU?

I guess it could become an out and out tax haven.

www.hwfisher.co.uk/brexit-turn-britain-corporate-tax-haven/

There are already places with connections to the UK with interesting tax policy regimes. Jersey etc. The Cayman Islands is a British overseas Territory. Even presently a lot of dodgy money is laundered through the UK (London anyway).

Even having left the EU, the UK would still have a relationship with other countries who might frown on a race to the bottom. Countries outside the EU that the UK wishes to make trade deals with. No country has complete control or say over anything if they want an agreement with another. There is alway a bit of horsetrading.

Mind you bigger countries like China might have more muscle over smaller countries.

At the time of the vote, it was our control over indirect vs direct taxation, specifically VAT, different rates and exemptions. Since then, of course, the EU has declared Irish corporation tax law illegal under EU rules. Taxation is meant to be outside the scope of the EU, but they are moving to control this. My view is that this is another example of integration which I feel uncomfortable with.

But carol how do you see things being different outside the EU? What do you think we'll actually be able to change?

On a very simplistic basis, we would be able to remove purchase tax on sanitary items.
On a longer term basis, we will be able to effectively change the rtio of indirect and direct tax, and flex this towards certain sectors as a UK democratically elected government decides is best. If we disagree we have the option of removing them. It is another, significant, lever in economic policy.
Additionally HMRC calculate the tax gap on tobacco is £2.1bn, with 39% of rolling tobacco not UK duty paid. Restricting imports for personal use could either help close this tax gap or further reduce smoking which is UK govt health policy.
These are just one area where EU rules prevent UK government policy being enacted.

On a very simplistic basis, we would be able to remove purchase tax on sanitary items.

I was afraid you were going to say that.

Which part of the fact David Cameron had negotiated exemption from that did you miss?

If you had done any reading you know very well he did not negotiate an exemption for that - we have discussed this before. The EU published this as their part of the deal to allow zero rating of sanitary products. Basically we might get to zero rate sanitary products alongside a single EU VAT system, ie one minor amendment to the UK in exchange yet more wholesale integration. They prefer a centrally agreed fixed rate and no reduced or zero ratings.

But, whatever the EU might prefer, we didn't necessarily have to adhere to it.

I can understand your concerns over wholesale integration to a certain extent but to me it's another example of something that wasn't ideal but was better than the alternative which is the shit storm we now find ourselves in.