Brexit rage

[holeinyourhead]

What's happened in the last 10 days has really affected me. It's all I think about tbh and I feel so enraged at seeing the politicians lie to us so lavishly then bail on us so swiftly, yet I'm completely powerless to do anything. I marched, I wrote to my MP, I've signed petitions. I'm obviously one of the 48% who wanted to remain. I can't find fault with the 52% who voted to leave, it's not their fault. It's a democratic process, I understand that of course. Everyone's entitled to their view and it's not that I'm a sore loser. But the catastrophic fallout isn't what even the most hardline leave voter would have wished for, there's no Brexit plan, and the future looks very bleak. I was at a conference today and a Conservative MP and a Brussels Eurocrats both agreed a recession in the medium term is now inevitable. People around me seem to be getting on with things - I wish I could too - but I've been very tearful and sleepless and worried sick. I run a European business just out of start up phase, employing a handful of people who by chance are not British born and who are now very nervous themselves about the future. The more I read the more hopeless I feel with each passing resignation. AIBU to feel like this? Does anyone else feel the same? Am I going nuts?!! I feel very alone.

We have not yet left the EU.

The EU is a shrinking economy. It was going to drag the UK down with it unless we left.

The uncertainty post-Ref is causing falling £=good for exporters=good for Co.s seeking new markets across the world.

Falling house builder shares will recover because there is a massive house shortage.

Falling property investor shares are good because it will help to burst the mad London/SE property price bubble based on overseas investors who are dead money to the economy (properties kept empty=no money spent).

The EU negotiations should go well for UK because we are in the stronger position because of our trade deficit.

No trade deal doesn't mean no trade. It means tariffs on trade. If eg France imposed tariffs on imports of say cheddar cheese at 3%, then the UK would impose tariffs of 3% on brie. It adds overall to costs (collecting and recording the tariff) but does not stop trade.

Low interest rates will help investment borrowing allowing Co.s seeking new markets to expand and helping to raise productivity which has been a serious UK economy problem.

EU funds to regions will be maintained by UK gov but can be much more tailored to needs than a remote EU bureaucracy could manage.

We can maintain immigration as much as is right for the UK's economy/resources - it's just that we don't have to if it doesn't suit the country's interests.

Current EU nationals in UK/UK nationals in EU should not worry. There will be a reciprocal arrangement because it is too disruptive to every nation's economy to impose constraints.

University collaboration will not cease, a mechanism already exists for collaboration for non-EU institutions that can be extended.

Does that provide any reassurance to the doom mongerers?

EU funds to regions will be maintained by UK gov

Excuse me while I attempt to control my mirth.

"EU funds to regions will be maintained by UK gov but can be much more tailored to needs than a remote EU bureaucracy could manage."

There will be less money wasted on paying EU bureaucrats to decide how much money to give to Greece or Cornwell. In future year the uk would be likely to get less as funds would be diverted to Albania or Turkey or other new nations. All the countries who want to join the EU are likely to be net recipients of EU money.

A falling pound makes it more expensive to pay debts off.

And that there is exactly the problem. The leave voters have a different viewpoint to you that doesn't make them all stupid.

Given the arguments I've seen advanced by even the most optimistic of leave voters, stupid is exactly what I'd call it.

That article upthread, vaunted as a good explanation.. good grief. 'My dad knows everything' - no, he really doesn't.
Again and again, I see the EU being blamed for conditions and wages in the UK, when it's nothing to do with them, and everything to do with the current government. It's the most effective scapegoating I've ever seen.

bengal I think there will be a slump in house prices because of a drop in confidence. But with an underlying housing shortage house prices should hold up as there is less supply than demand.

Really A falling pound makes it more expensive to pay debts off? In what sense? At the moment I know some are cleaning up on redemptions... but don't know much about this really.

imother - the idea that plummeting sterling, zero interest rates and a vast trade deficit is some sort of economic golden dawn is risible.

Please describe the mechanism through which the EU was "dragging us down" had we not left.

Strange I think the argument is supply and demand? Why is that scapegoating?

"Really A falling pound makes it more expensive to pay debts off? In what sense? At the moment I know some are cleaning up on redemptions... but don't know much about this really."

The U.K. borrows money from other countries. For example if an American bank lends 1 million dollars then we will have to pay them back 1 million dollars plus interest. The rate of the pound to the dollar has fallen. Therefore we need more pounds than before to pay off the 1 million dollar loan.

If you would call a significant % of the population stupid because they don't agree with you. Then I guess there is zero point in even trying to debate it.

pasty our exports to the EU have steadily fallen in the last 5 years from circa 55% to around 44%. That is partly due to a strong £v euro, but mostly because the EU has had a recessionary economy.

We pay membership for the right to trade freely in the EU (& those fees were set to rise next year as we lost our rebate) but the value of the trade was dropping off significantly.

We need to focus more on growing markets in the rest of the world.

Any figures on that really?

How does leaving the EU help us "focus" on those markets imother?

What can we now do that we couldn't do before?

And why do you think there is a connection between seeking new markets and productivity?

We could have stayed in EU while also pursuing trade opportunities in other countries. We're going to be stuck with WTO rules at best, anyway, in short run.

Really quick google says about 75% of UK debt held in UK

Prices bengal - probably only pockets of price slumps though in overheated areas. Will recover hopefully next year.

pasty productivity is low because there's been lack of long term investment in new tech/r&D. Low interest + banks lending= more investment=productivity increased.

How does leaving the EU help us "focus" on those markets imother?

It doesn't. But it will force Co.s to invest in export markets which was not done when the 'lazy' choice of the EU was there (altho getting harder). Better for Uk in long term.

In any case EU trade will still exist, but co.s will be encouraged to start looking further afield - which was underway well before the Ref result - but now co.s are free to trade as 'UK' rather than as part of EU bloc.