all your chat about false allegation boils down to fundamentally believing that women lie.
FFS. Which part of 'we don't know' don't you understand? I am not the person here who thinks truth can be established by looking in someone's pants and seeing which genatalis they have. We simply don't know.
There are a lot of conflicting studies which are cherry picked for highlighting according to what the person doing the highlighting wants to present. These go from a 2% figure right up to 41%. They are all so different because there is absolutely no way that researchers can definitively tell who is telling the truth so they use different methodologies to estimate the % of false allegations. And they are all fallible.
The 2% figure is just an anecdote of something a judge may or may not have said, and the 41% figure is poor as it is based only on withdrawn allegations which is a bad indicator as it's likely that true allegations would be withdrawn too.
We simply do not know. It's not saying that women lie to say that you shouldn't convict or make assumptions of guilt on those whose guilt cannot be proved. It's just a basic principle of justice.
Actually, if you look really hard for something and are unable to find it, that does rather strongly suggest that it does not exist. It is, in real life, literally impossible to prove that something doesn't exist.
So when evaluating these things properly (ie in a scientific way), you look at the balance of evidence. If there is no evidence at all that there is a teacup in orbit around the Earth then I'm pretty confident that there isn't a teacup in orbit around the Earth.
That's actually rather a meaningless discussion as it's not comparing like for like. Comparing a search for a physical object which can definitively said to be there or not there to a nebulous concept like 'consent' which only exists or doesn't exist for a split second and is only witnessed by two people and does not hang around for anybody else to check it's existence, is utterly ridiculous as there is no real comparison.
Science is a very, very poor suggestion of a methodology for looking at this issue. A far better one is history, where there are often no real absolutes and reliable evidence of events is scant or absent and that vacuum is filled with theories or opinions which can never be truly definitive.
For example: Henry the VIII divorce of Catherine of Aragon was based on his claim she had sex with his brother Arthur, and consummated her marriage to him. The truth of that will never be known. Only Catherine and Arthur would ever truly know. And you will get historians on either side equally vehemently claiming that they did or didn't have sex. But in the absence of definitive evidence we will never know.
The teacup analogy also fails in itself because there is actually a lot of evidence - witness evidence. Hundreds of thousands of people have spent hundreds of years searching and cataloging the sky without reporting or cataloging a teacup in orbit. The odds that they all missed it or are deliberately denying are tiny, so it can quite reasonably be assumed it doesn't exist.
This doesn't apply at all to determining the truth of rape allegations, because it is something which could only possibly have been witnessed over a few seconds by only 2 people (often).
Actually, if you look really hard for something and are unable to find it, that does rather strongly suggest that it does not exist. It is, in real life, literally impossible to prove that something doesn't exist.
I'm so stunned by that I don't quite know what to say. Because if it were true we simply wouldn't be having this conversation because rape convictions would be no issue because the evidence of rape would be there if people simply looked hard enough for it. And we all know that is simply not the case. It's the argument MRA use to say allegations are untrue: 'Where are her bruises', 'Where are the signs of a struggle? There is no evidence'.
And exactly the difficulty of finding enough evidence to secure convictions is the same difficulty researchers have when determining if allegations are false. The evidence just isn't there and it's impossible to know.
Anyway, long post. But it basically boils down to the fact that absolutely nobody can possibly accurately determine either the number of wrongful acquittals or false allegations. And anybody who claims they can is either lying or has a very poor understanding of how research or statistics work.