I think the problem is this:
The majority of wealth in the UK is tied up in older generations savings and larger properties.
IF the market crashes then protecting businesses will require money to be spent.
How do you encourage this?
Looking at pensions IS the obvious way and probably the best way to do that.
I'm not sure that removing the triple lock on the state pension is the way to do that, because it will effect those on the lowest incomes the most.
However, I do think those with private pensions have genuine reason to worry. The trouble is that with all the other scaremongering that Cameron has done, it just comes across as another empty threat and isn't being taken perhaps as seriously as it should be.
Japan has addressed its particularly bad demographic issue, which more acute than the uk, with wealth being in held by older generations by introducing negative interest rates. They are also in effect in Sweden, Denmark and Switzerland and the ECB has used them (though this is less about demographics and more about Eurozone problems).
This is NOT good news for pensions. It means the value of your pension goes down, and encourages spending as you have to pay the bank to hold your money.
It also encourages more borrowing - which also isn't a very good thing for a country that is already struggling with personal debt.
And whilst it sounds great in principle for mortgages, the reality is that banks need the money to protect themselves against a collapse so are required to hold so much in reserve. If savers are taking their money out, then interest rates on mortgages won't go down in line with negative interest rates. They will stay as they are - or more likely - actually go up. Your mortgage will cost you more than it would have.
Worst still, whilst this might push the price of property down, it also doesn't mean that it will be easier for younger people to get on the housing market. If it costs you to save whilst rents are pushed up by increases to mortgages which are buy to let then you won't be any closer to getting a house.
But the property market is only one part of the economy and it might be the thing that is essentially 'sacrificed' in the hope it will stimulate the economy elsewhere.
Do negative interest rates work? I don't think they have really proved to. I think they create as many problems as they solve.
Are they being considered over here in event of Brexit?
You bet ya!
I think the point for me, is that pensioners really won't be immune. If its not the triple lock, it will be something else if the economy tanks. Pensions account for the biggest percentage of public spending. The NHS is next.
Nearly everyone on both sides of the Leave / Remain fence has admitted there WILL be short term pain. What short term pain means is really the key here. It could be a couple of years. It could be a decade or more. It could be a small drop in the economy. It could be a huge amount.
Of course in the long run it could be that we are all better off for it. That's the gamble, and I really don't think that pensioners CAN be immune in that, especially if the voting demographic for Brexit is correct. Since they are likely to vote most for it, its not unreasonable in the eyes of those who didn't that they bare their 'fair share' of the cost of that. (Of course its not as simple as that, as changes to pensions will also have a negative effect on the young in the long term too, but I don't think a lot of young people will really consider that).
If pensioners are protected, at the expense of the young, that risks all kinds of things. At its worst the split in generations it creates in the country is politically destabilising, even if you are a party that relies on the 'grey vote'. I do think this is every bit as worrying as increasing intolerance of immigrants.
Ultimately I don't think Brexit necessarily shouldn't happen. It has lots of merit. What does concern me, is that I'm not sure how many people have properly grasped what the gamble really is, given how its been dressed up in layers of fantasy and cries of Armageddon which sound like the boy who cried wolf. That in itself is potentially also politically destabilising, if people are disappointed or shocked at what the reality ends up being.
All this will be protracted unless we have leaders who really can make decisions and agree deals quickly for our future, the pain will prolonged too. Political infighting after a Brexit, is not in anyone's interest.
That's why I don't think the referendum was a solution to anything to be honest. It has just exposed and expanded the existing cracks in our society and politics.
If we wanted out of the EU, I think it needed to handled in a way that didn't create this situation (which I do think was possible, and potentially still is depending on how things play out but unfortunately unlikely).
This is how I think Cameron will ultimately be judged. Not as the PM who kept us in / got us out of the EU but as the PM who created so much division rather than working to heal wounds and reduce inequalities. If Blair is viewed as the PM who failed most on foreign policy, Cameron will be judged as the one who failed most on domestic.