AIBU to ask if Lord Owen is right about TTIP?

[SpringingIntoAction]

Is former Labour Minister and SDP politician, Lord David Owen right to think that TTIP will be detrimental to the NHS?

www.theguardian.com/society/2016/apr/06/brexit-is-necessary-to-protect-nhs-from-ttip-says-david-owen

[SpringingIntoAction]

You might as well say the moon is made of cheese

Your opinion or do you have a link to back up your assertion?

You're showing a rather totalitarian side, You'll fit in nicely into the EU.

Anyway, carry on, you're showing just how much you have to rely on tax-payer funded EU research to back up your absence of any free thought.

You seem to have reached the stage of not bothering about the EU at all as all you want to do is trade insults

[SpringingIntoAction]

Trade occurs when the buyer is able and willing to buy things on terms which are acceptable to the seller. The seller sets the terms and conditions of sale. We buy more from other countries than we sell to them

No. In order to trade both parties need a contract. A contract is 'a meeting of minds'. You cannot have 'free' trade if one party is coerced into it. That renders the contract invalid.

We buy more from some other countries than we sell to them. We are also the biggest market of some of those countries. There are countries that we prohibited by the EU from established trade deals with while we are in the EU. We will be free to create new markets. That is how trade has always worked.

Trade is not the one-way street.

[butteredmuffin]

Yeah, OK, Springing.

Good luck telling Volkswagen or Renault how much you're prepared to pay for your new car after Brexit. I'm sure they'll be really sympathetic about the fact that the pound has crashed against the euro and slash the price in half for you.

[butteredmuffin]

By the way, I write contracts for a living.

[SpringingIntoAction]

If TTIP will be damaging to one of its constituent member countries, why is the EU permitting the US to damage that country?

Still waiting for the answer to this

If TTIP will be so damaging to our NHS why is the EU permitting this?

We are told we are safer, stronger and better in the EU.

Not if we loss the NHS. we won't be

Is anyone prepared to admit that the EU sees the NHS as expendable? If it didn't it would be protecting it.

In its desire for TTIP the EU is failing to protect the interests of the UK population that relies on the NHS.

I want to live in a country that is not prepared to sacrifice the NHS so other EU countries can make some economic gains.

[lurked101]

The WTO makes no deals for tariffs and quotas which we will be under without trade agreements, because every other major country is in trade agreements with others which specify points about countries outside those deals.

I'm really sorry springing but you're demonstrating a distinct lack of understanding of the issues now and your arguments are clouded by your desired Brexit solution.

So as an economist let me outline my scenario from Brexit.

Short term (1-2 years) There is a significant period of economic slowdown/recession. The value of the pound falls and as such import costs and costs to businesses rise so at the same time we have an increase in inflation, some major organisations leave the UK and others reduce their FDI in UK firms or are encouraged not to invest at all. At the same time UK firms will not be optimistic about the near future and lower their investment levels (which are already low despite incentives). Consumer confidence falls and thus so does consumption.

This makes the recession cycle deeper and unemployment goes up rapidly. Output, investment fall, but because the value of the pound continues to be low the costs to firms will increase ( you know cause oil will be more expensive etc)

At the same time the UK credit rating on gilts will fall and interest rates go up so we will be in even larger budget deficit, and most likely unable to counter the effects with public spending.

Because of the decreased international competitiveness (caused by rising costs due to inflation/export tariffs) we will have a weaker hand when negotiating trade deals with both the EU and the US and therefore in the long run be very much worse off.

Most especially the loss of investment from firms both domestic and in FDI combined with the neccesary lower public spending which will be necessitated by lower tax takes and higher benefit costs will greatly effect the long term productive capacity of the economy.

It may not be that cataclysmic but I'm going to ask other posters to see if they think my scenario is more believable than yours?

[SpringingIntoAction]

Why limit myself to Renault or Volkswagon? I will find a partner with whom the deal is mutually acceptable. You forget that, having manufactured those cars they too must have a market to sell them into.

They may want x for their product but if I'm not offering X then they need to decide whether to trade with me or not. But lack of trade affects them as much as it affects me.

[butteredmuffin]

Sounds plausible, lurked.

The effect of the exchange rate on trade will be significant. The pound has already plummeted against all other major currencies since the date of the referendum was announced. The likelihood is that as soon as the result of the referendum is known, the pound will either rise sharply (in the event of a remain vote) or fall sharply (in the event of a leave vote).

Tariffs could be the least of our worries. With a weak pound, everything we import will be more expensive, regardless of where it comes from, and the effects of this will be felt very quickly. Our exports would be more competitive, but we import more than we export.

[butteredmuffin]

"Why limit myself to Renault or Volkswagon?"

Springing, the manufacturer sets the price of the car. Whether you can afford it or not is your problem. And a weak pound would make all foreign cars (and all other imports) more expensive for us.

[lurked101]

Exports will only be more competitive IF we have good trade deals with other countries, if domestic consumers are discouraged from buying UK goods due to higher costs because of tariffs and quotas it won't work. Worrying.

Our Current Account is already in record deficit, and obviously we have to take the Marshall Learner condition into account when considering this too.

Your analysis works Springing for a market trader, not for international trade.

[lurked101]

Also the NHS question, well isn't that why negotiations are still on going? We are not going to be in the same position as countries such as Uruguay or Australia (which have been held up as an example) because of the EU's negotiating power.

TTIP has not been ratified yet, and is at the moment quite opaque, it is worrying but if negotiated well by the EU could be beneficial to both sides.

[butteredmuffin]

Well if the pound had crashed far enough then UK exports could still be competitive even with tariffs. But clearly reduced investment in the UK and a weak economy would have a negative effect on our exports in the longer term.

[SpringingIntoAction]

You wish to REMAIN because this is the vision that you can forsee. Many agree with you.

I wish to LEAVE because I do not share your vision. Many agree with me.

It doesn't mean your vision is any more correct than mine is.

It's your opinion. Hectoring me and telling me my judgement is clouded by my desire for Brexit is untrue and doesn't add any additional weight to your opinion.

I could just as easily tell you that your vision is clouded by the fact that you have a lot invested in the future of the EU as you are studying for a Masters in EU Law.

But I won't. Because, as I keep saying, I want this discussion to be free from name-calling and belittling other people views.

I state my views. if you don't agree with them fine.

[lurked101]

Also the moon made of cheese comment wasn't an insult, it was in regard to your saying "I don't need to use statistics or sources I can analyse it on my own".

So if your going to do that you might as well say the moon is made of cheese because I say it is.

[butteredmuffin]

"It doesn't mean your vision is any more correct than mine is."

No, but her assessment of the facts is.

You are entitled to have an opinion that the sky is green, if you want. Or, indeed, that the moon is made of cheese.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but not everyone's opinion is equally sound.

Anyway... it's long past my bedtime!

[SpringingIntoAction]

And a weak pound would make all foreign cars (and all other imports) more expensive for us.

We make cars. If foreign cars are more expensive to import ,the buyer pays that cost. We cannot have it all ways. There is no absolute entitlement to cheap imported forieign cars.

[lurked101]

We make cars, by foriegn companies, whose desire to do so in the UK may be dramatically lowered by EU exit. Nissan in Sunderland for one would probably reduce production here, if not look to leave.

[butteredmuffin]

"There is no absolute entitlement to cheap imported forieign cars."

So, it doesn't matter if we can no longer afford foreign cars because we can buy British Jaguars and Aston Martins and Rolls Royces instead then? Right?

And it doesn't matter if we can no longer afford foreign food because the UK's agricultural sector produces enough food to support our entire population. Right? (Oh wait... all of our farmers depend on massive EU subsidies...)

[SpringingIntoAction]

^Also the moon made of cheese comment wasn't an insult, it was in regard to your saying "I don't need to use statistics or sources I can analyse it on my own".

So if your going to do that you might as well say the moon is made of cheese because I say it is^

Lurked. you are just an irritating background noise that occasionally interrupts this thread, quoting your latest Google searches.

You an an empty vessel, devoid of any original thought.

[butteredmuffin]

Springing

"I want this discussion to be free from name-calling and belittling other people views."

"Lurked. you are just an irritating background noise that occasionally interrupts this thread, quoting your latest Google searches.

You an an empty vessel, devoid of any original thought."

I think I'm done here.

[lurked101]

To quote you back at yourself when you resort to insults you lose the argument.

I don't think I'm background noise, I think you can't counter my arguments sufficiently. I use data to back my points because it gives them greater gravitas.

You use hyperbole, I wonder who others think is more convincing?

[JassyRadlett]

And it doesn't matter if we can no longer afford foreign food because the UK's agricultural sector produces enough food to support our entire population. Right? (Oh wait... all of our farmers depend on massive EU subsidies...)

And of course people only want food that can be produced in Britain's climate. Paying more for the fruit and veg they are used to year-round wouldn't bother them at all, or affect people's nutrition and health.

[JassyRadlett]

We make cars. If foreign cars are more expensive to import ,the buyer pays that cost. We cannot have it all ways. There is no absolute entitlement to cheap imported forieign cars

Let them eat cake drive Jags?

[HelpfulChap]

Seems like the Dutch have seen sense, fingers crossed the 32% turnout is confirmed.

Whay are the govt being allowed to spend £9million on pro-EU propaganda?

[HelpfulChap]

Its because they know they will lose without advertising!