AIBU to ask if Lord Owen is right about TTIP?

[SpringingIntoAction]

Is former Labour Minister and SDP politician, Lord David Owen right to think that TTIP will be detrimental to the NHS?

www.theguardian.com/society/2016/apr/06/brexit-is-necessary-to-protect-nhs-from-ttip-says-david-owen

Ireland isn't in the top 5 for importing or exporting though?

They haven't said that they will not trade with Britain but any deal would have to be worked out through the EU. There is no working out trade deals with individual countries within the EU, it would be politically difficult if not impossible under EU rules to do this.

We import lots of food from the EU and have no idea what leaving would do to prices charged to the UK which is why some have said food prices would rise.

Nice witticisms helpful!

Of the top 9 countries, how many have said they will not trade with Britain?

Why would other countries not want to trade with us?

Why are you suggesting that countries would stop trading with Britain? It reads a little like you think trade would be banned.

No doubt any EU country will love to continue exporting to us, if we can afford the extra costs of doing business with them, and depending on what protectionist measures we may take ourselves.

And it's nice to have warm words on imports. Except in planned economies it's individual companies (and consumers) that decide what they buy, not governments. Will they stick with British suppliers if the food they're umpiring is 15% more expensive due to the CET? If our cars cost 10% more?

On food, I agree it's not cut and dried. Too many unknowns. What would replace the CAP to ensure we still have an agricultural industry? Removing it overnight - or even longer term in some areas - would send many out of business. If food exporters lose some of their foreign markets as they're no longer competitive, they may go out of business (or need further structural support to prevent demand from outstripping supply too much). How much would the cost of labour go up, particularly in food manufacturing, and what impact would that have on the cost of food?

Why are you suggesting that countries would stop trading with Britain? It reads a little like you think trade would be banned.

There is no existing trade deal with any country to access the single market without tariffs (ie join the EEA or EFTA) which hasn't involved signing up to the four freedoms. There is not going to be one. Quite a few EU member states have said they wouldn't sign up to a deal that gave the UK most or all of the advantages of EU membership while avoiding most or all of the costs

That's the implication being made though isn't it? We have to agree to follow terms laid down by the EU or not trade.
Why will we not be able to negotiate a new deal as a new trading partner?

No - not at all. It's not no trade. No trade without tariffs. The impact of those tariffs on the UK is entirely speculative.

After all, we buy a lot from outside the EU, as do many other member states. But those goods cost more than if they'd been purchased from within the EU, because of tariffs.

The fact we're not in a free trade area with Brazil, say, doesn't mean we don't import from Brazil. It means good from Brazil may cost more, making it more likely that we'll buy from within the EU for goods where there isn't a significant cost differential.

Sorry, I didn't answer the second part of your question:

Why will we not be able to negotiate a new deal as a new trading partner?

Of course we would. But numerous EU voices have made it very clear that a free trade deal (such as Norway's) would only happen if the UK signed up to the four freedoms, including the freedom of the movement of people. Which would be politically unacceptable to Britain if it had just voted for Brexit on the basis of being able to stop or reduce EU migration.

Any other trade deal would stop short of free trade and would probably be quite lengthy and time consuming, and could well impose other conditions and costs on UK businesses.

And of course we'd have to start from scratch on bilateral trade deals with those countries/regions with whom the EU already has deals. And give up on a deal with the US for the foreseeable future (maybe not a bad thing).

What is the point of staying in a union where we have no control over anything?

The 72 EU measures the UK has stood against in the last 20 years has failed.

We have NO control over anything the EU wants to impose on us.

What, you mean like when the EU pushed through with its proposal to impose a tariff on China to prevent the European market being flooded with heavily subsidised Chinese steel despite the fact that the UK wanted to veto it?

Oh wait... Hang on...

I mean, in some ways it would actually be good for the EU to give us a Norway-type deal. Because then the result will be that we are to all intents and purposes still in the EU, but we will no longer be able to use our veto to block measures our special friends in China have ordered us not to agree to.

Interestingly , in the past 6 years although the UK has been on the losing side of more votes than any other country (10%) it has been on the winning side of the vote 90% of the time.

That is a fairly good success rate, and although meaning that it has to do things that it does not want to, from within the EU it is able to challenge rulings and without it would be effected anyway but have no say.

And quite apart from actual votes, much of the EU is deal making done through alliance-building and diplomacy to avoid conflict in votes. Rather like in Westminster.

Haven't we just had the 18th straight month of doing more non-EU than EU trade?

But #TeamLurked reckon we can't survive on our own.

But much of that trade Helpful is because of EU negotiated deals, which would not be in effect if we were not in the EU.

This concept of surviving on our own is deeply flawed. Our actions to block the proposed EU tariff on China are a very good indication of the kind of trade deals we would be doing with other, more powerful countries if we leave and are free to "negotiate" new trade agreements. I say "negotiate" because really we will have to agree to whatever terms those countries want.

Why are you so keen to escape the evil clutches of the EU - which we do actually have the power to influence - just so we can be China's bitch? Because it's quite clear that that's what would happen.

Why are you so keen to escape the evil clutches of the EU - which we do actually have the power to influence - just so we can be China's bitch? Because it's quite clear that that's what would happen

Buttered do you have any evidence to support this statement?

The conclusion I have drawn from this thread is that nobody knows what will happen. Prices may have to increase depending on what trade deals are put in place. Some of which will be with countries who would welcome increased trade with us, some who won't.

Without evidence to support your statement it comes across as a scare tactic, I would then question why you need to frighten me into agreeingwith you. I would also question why you are so hostile and agressive to those who have a different view. Is this what we have to look forward to if we stay part of the EU?

The fact that we blocked the EU's measure to impose a tariff on China (which was aimed at preventing the current steel crisis) is a fairly good indication of the lengths our government is prepared to go to to please China, don't you think?

And I really don't think I'm being hostile or aggressive towards you.

"Prices may will have to increase depending on what trade deals are put in place."

Unless we stay in the single market under a deal like Norway, in which case the victory for the "leave" vote will be purely symbolic and won't address any of the issues around immigration or sovereignty.

I suspect this is what will happen, actually.

I'd like to clarify that I'm not Team Anyone, and I'm not particularly ideological about the EU.

I do quite like proper debates where people play the ball, not the person, so this thread is on the frustrating side from some posters.

From my perspective I struggle to see the trade benefits of leaving the EU in the short term and probably the medium term. And unfortunately less favourable trade conditions tend to result in higher prices to consumers.

Jassy, if you think this thread is frustrating, then whatever you do, stay off the "in, out, shake it all about" thread in the EU referendum topic. There is a poster in there called Daisy who makes Spring and HelpfulChap look quite sensible by comparison.

The EU measure on blocking steel was an 8% increase in import fees.
The US measure which worked was 266%
I'm not sure the measure would have made much difference anyway.

I think our 12million metric tonnes is put in perspective by China's 822million metric tonnes.

If it didn't make much difference then why would we bother to block it?

Ineffective or not, it was still too much for British tastes, apparently.