To think saying house prices could crash if we brexit will be a plus for many

[feellikeahugefailure]

The BoE and other banks say this as if it is universally bad news. If it stops the vast amount of foreign speculation on UK property then many will see it as a good thing.

Even if you own your own home, its paper gains unless you sell it. So even homeowners might want prices to fall as otherwise their children may never own a home.

Milly I think I can decide for myself what I find amusing. Just as you can decide who's a twat. My position is as a parent of kids in their 20s and trying to explain that Corbyn won't solve their predicament....

Dusty, sorry to blow your self belief regarding your posts which you think must be of interest, but I've skim read at best only the one post from you where you "tease" I'm a sock puppet.

I can't say I've clocked/noticed anything you've said as being attributable to your name or noticed you in any way. Sorry about that. You're clearly not as inflammatory as you'd like to imagine yourself.

If I have appeared to respond to anything you said earlier in the thread, dont' feel persecuted as it wasn't directed at you I was just interested in the "buyer beware" message to current first time buyers and their parents who may not be aware and still telling their offspring to throw the kitchen sink at a deposit. It's changing.

I'm disappionted to hear that concern for the next generation is in your world known as being "bitter". Oh well, takes all sorts I suppose.

Anyway as I said I'll leave the thread as people wished to discuss whether Brexit will cause a slump in house prices. No it won't, but there will be that slump coming - it's happening.

Like I say you don't have to "believe in" something like 3% extra stamp duty for example - it IS happening and the result of that and other deterrants to new entrants are causing substantial drops in London asking prices on traditional "investor" properties.

n't say I've clocked/noticed anything you've said as being attributable to your name or noticed you in any way. Sorry about that. You're clearly not as inflammatory as you'd like to imagine yourself.

How odd... What makes you think I believe myself to be inflammatory?

No, I hadn't noticed you responding to any of my posts, and certainly don't feel "persecuted" but I don't believe that precludes me from commenting that your posts simply seem to parrot another non-sensical poster.

And I've no idea who said "bitter" (bar yourself).

You might want to google condescending.
thats what made you a twat.

l think this is scaremongering, there is no logical reason that house prices will fall due to leaving the EU.

I am pretty sure there will be little or no impact.House prices are controlled by supply and demand, big changes in employment levels and interest rates.

...and money supply (mortgage availability), foreign investment (particularly in London), plus, for investors, the relative profitability versus potential substitutes in both income and capital appreciation terms (hence anticipated impact of new generous dividend allowance, cgt reduction on non-property, stamp duty etc)...

To be fair we both know it was entirely intentional the condescending tone.

I'm surprised you need to mention it, but hard of thinking is, as hard of thinking does - I suppose.

Which is why I called you on being a twat! Your like the op full of bluster and doom. Full of crap.

Not so keen to explain your position are you? Renting I'd guess and just like the op living in a dream world.

We seem to have this debate every few weeks on mn. A crash would be enormously beneficial for me, as I would buy several properties in cash as BTLs. We have no mortgage and no plans to move so no problem if our own home goes down in value.

However, it would be awful to those with large mortgages, those in negative equity and to the wider economy so I wouldn't wish a crash on anyone. I'm not that much of a selfish twat.

It slightly annoys me that everyone accuses people of being goady if you say you'd be pleased if house prices fall.

Sorry about your negative equity but at least you have a house.....what about those of us stuck in generation 'rent'?

If you gain the right to live in the UK which is an EU state then you can move to the other 27 member states. If that goes there is a chance people will prefer to make say Paris or Berlin their base so that might have an impact in areas where there are a lot of foreign buyers but they are already being put off by the new stamp duty (although some of those are simply looking in cheaper areas in the UK) and Greece has a new scheme for Syrians that if they invest a certain amount they can remain in Greece - this is for the richer Syrians.

What is one person's goading is another person's view really. People think I must be some kind of invented incarnation of the devil because I believe we support the disbaled best by living as anation within our means and that I must be sitting here wanting to make people cry because mym views differ from theirs on issues such as cuts but instead we are all just polite happy people of different views mostly all wanting the same end - to help the less fortunate and/or in the context of this thread to wonder about house prices. I suspect there are some people in the UK who are not used to having their views challenged and it is qutie a bit issue which is coming out with students wanting safe spaces where they will not be triggered i.e. exposed to different views. It is as if we want one type of person in the UK who believes in one view only on each topic and anyone else must be silenced for making those with different views cry into their computers because someone has had the audacity to expose them to a contrary view.

UK house prices will go down, slump as they did in the 70s property crash, as thety did in the 90s when we sold properties for less than we paid for them, as they did after the credit crunch and they will go up after too. It tends to be senisble to buy as early as you can and before you have children even if you endure a terrible area. It is a bit of a mug's game to predict exactly when these slumps will come and they don't really matter because over 40 years of ownership they even out. My son is holding off until the April changes take effect in the SE for a few months which I think is wise but I would not put off buying for years hoping prices will fall as we've all seen countless people try that over the years and almost all of them come unstuck by taking that view.

'Stuck in generation rent' still has a house and is doing what every previous generation bar 1 has ever done... rent!

You obviously have absolutely not the first clue what negative equity means... it is not restricted to having a property that is not worth as much as you initially mortgaged it for, there are multiple other ramisifcationsas have been explained upthread.

Those ramifications are not restricted to the individual with the mortgage, it extends throughout society as a whole... making it even harder for 'generation rent' to get a mortgage.

A housing crash would have negative impacts on some, but would in the long term benefit our economy.

If this is true I'd definitely vote for brexit. Hopefully there would be more houses available if less immigration too.

I'd still quibble, cleaty. Mainly because I lived through the 80s/90s one, as a new homeowner. It was horrendous and many individuals and businesses were devastated by it.

The long term benefits escape me... we have more rigorous banking and now people whinge like mad about being forced to rent!

There is absolutely no guarantee that Brexit would lead to foreigners pulling out of the housing market. No government would block inward investment to the UK.

This is just another of the leavers' pipedreams.

Its not really inward investment, its speculation on a housing. Plenty of other governments curb this kind of thing.

Forex markets anticipating 20% drop in value of GBP if Brexit based on economic impact. That's in addition to last months decline triggered by Boris deciding to promote Brexit. Nobody wants to see their investment go down like that.

Foreign investment is underpinned by desire to keep money is a stable asset in a stable political environment and stable currency. Yes, I wrote stable three times

Even market updates from the leading prime real estate agents are citing possible brexit as a major risk factor for house prices in London which filters down through SE (in addition decimation of profitability through tax changes and asset prices versus income potential which are generally less important for foreign investors).

I am a foreign investor of sorts myself (British expat) ....I am watching the central London market (no other areas, so can't possibly comment outside of that) very closely indeed and I most certainly would not invest in the London property market in the event of a Brexit vote until the long term fallout (estimated to last 2 - 10 years) has run its course with both the property prices and GBP sterling.

Just my personal opinion, that's all.

Id like to see house prices lower and wages increase. A house price crash will almost certainly affect employment increase prices of basic things like food as well so what's the point?

Mainly because I lived through the 80s/90s one, as a new homeowner. It was horrendous and many individuals and businesses were devastated by it.

Indeed

We bought in the early 90s after the crash from couple who had bought at the previous peak and then split up. They lost about £15k on the value of their property in about 2 years and while that doesn't sound very much now, it represented over a third of the value of the property and was more than DP and I earned in a year between us. So it would have impacted greatly on them for years to come probably.

A big crash could leave people who are forced to sell due to relationship breakdown or needing to move for work etc with debts that could be significant 5 or 6 figure sums in today's money.

Yes, I also had friends who went bankrupt through London property. They had fun whilst it lasted though. I think the UK property market is in an appalling state in general and I've no idea why the UK government(s) have neglected house building to accompany population growth , nor permitted BTL to get so huge, sold off so much social stock etc. These are totally UK policy issues and nothing to do with the EU, right?

The point regarding forex valuation of GBP is a direct reflection of estimated economic effects as a whole, not just house prices of course. And yes, decline in jobs, wages stagnation etc....the whole thing tends to come together as a package.

Time will tell, it always does, but forex rates are my favourite measure of confidence in a country's international economic standing simply because it's one of the few indicators where people literally put their money where their mouth is (unlike politicians!).

Milly, I said above when selling a house I'd noticed one of the estate agents tricks of 'relisting' a property etc so think even you could have deduced homeowner.

However, not sure what relevance the amount one owes on an individual mortgage has to do with the wider issue: namely people playing monopoly with first timer type property and outpricing them.

This issue need tackling head on and in a couple of years it will be different landscape.

This country was looking at a lost generation arriving at age 65 with never having owned their own property and still living on a shorthold tenancy agreement. Shocking future ahead for young people with good jobs servicing interest only debts of speculators.

To save any confusion, yes I'm being condescending to you. I really can't imagine you would have anything of any wit or interest to say, so do forgive me if I appear to have skipped your further "insights".

Btw you're /your - different words/different meanings, see?

Sorry about your negative equity but at least you have a house.....what about those of us stuck in generation 'rent'?

Quite. also do you buy a house to make a profit or do you buy a house to live in it and make it your home?

Even if house prices did crash temporarily, they would go up again and you'd soon be out of negative equity. People usually stay in their homes for many many many years so unless you're a property developer.....

A big house price crash would leave banks with a lot of unsecured debt. This would have a wider effect on their willingness to lend and the economy.

Yes, many home owners (including those who have btl properties) would ride things out, just as they have before. However any economic turbulence always hits those with least money most.

Even if house prices did crash temporarily, they would go up again and you'd soon be out of negative equity.

See! That's the kind of thing I mean. Uber simplistic.

SoThatHappened, if/when there is a housing crash there will also be a wholesale restructuring of all financial lendings etc - just like there was in the 80s/90s. Many people will not be able to service their mortgage as the interest rates rise, maybe to levels like the 90s, 18% for example. When that happens you don't ride it out and wait, you lose everything and are left with a house sized mountain of debt that the bank wants back 'now'. Not negative equity, homelessness. Job losses, bankruptcies will be more common this time, as the rules have changed. N

When you say 'temporarily' I assume you are thinking of the last so called 'crash', which was actually a slightly extended dip and did not trigger such a complete financial backlash.

Media posturing and hyperbole means that many posters here have absolutely no idea how horrible, life destroying a house price crash would actually be. That is the only reason I can imagine anyone would say that they would welcome one!

When you say 'temporarily' I assume you are thinking of the last so called 'crash', which was actually a slightly extended dip and did not trigger such a complete financial backlash

Prices probably took about 10 years or more to recover after the 1990s crash where I am, similarly this time, prices are only just above what they were in 2006/7 now, nearly 10 years later. Just because prices have raced along in London, doesn't mean they have everywhere.

That's 10 years when people are trapped in houses too small, or in the wrong place, or unable to sell after relationship breakdown. Some people stay in houses for decades. Others need to move more quickly.