To think saying house prices could crash if we brexit will be a plus for many

[feellikeahugefailure]

The BoE and other banks say this as if it is universally bad news. If it stops the vast amount of foreign speculation on UK property then many will see it as a good thing.

Even if you own your own home, its paper gains unless you sell it. So even homeowners might want prices to fall as otherwise their children may never own a home.

Whether one hopes for a "crash" or not isn't really the issue. Prices will be going down. Brexit won't be the catylyst - it will be policies to deter new entrant btl going forward. The government policies since July 2015 have been to impact the disirability.

For instance look at Holloway in London (some parts come under Islington etc). Since the tax changes to btl have been reported I've seen endless properties reduced in price. Lots by £50,000 off asking price in two months (ie since January 2016). Prices are no longer going up in London. The most dramatic reduction I've seen so far is £75,00 in two months on a flat in London.

There are a number of btl currently trying to exit the market to avoid withdrawal of that tax releif; higher stamp duty; closer Bank of England scrutiny of mortgages etc are finding it difficult to attract another btl landlord willing to take on their properties at the high prices they are hoping for. (Was a surge prior to April as trying to avoid the 3% extra stamp duty also, but that will come to an abrupt end).

Their market will have to generally be owner occupiers and the price will be set at what they can borrow.

If you are actually interested in what's really going on then use Firefox browser and download "Property Bee". When you open rightmove you then have property bee sitting over the right move page and provides you with a history of the property on the market so you can track the recent price reductions not to mention the number that say "sold" then come back to the market as sale falls through.

The south east is lagging behind what's now going on in London for sure and asking ever higher prices. The London changes will spread out to south east, just as the boom was from Londoners moving out after achieving bubble prices.

See Treasury Committe last Thursday following Budget discussing "bubble" with George Osborne. (On parliament TV to watch if interested). It's the word of the moment and bubbles burst or at best deflate.

It supplies a home for someone to live in
btl ll's don't supply homes.
Rather they purloin existing housing stock, and because they can borrow against other property are able to outbid would be owner occupiers, forcing them to line the landlords pockets instead of investing in a secure family home

Rather they purloin existing housing stock, and because they can borrow against other property are able to outbid would be owner occupiers, forcing them to line the landlords pockets instead of investing in a secure family home

Over-emotive language and hyperbole fail to disguise the fact that you avoid actually addressing other poster's valid points.

Crikey! That's wel and truly overblown and emotive. Sadly it does nothing to address anythng that has gne before, or add add to any debate!

And thanks, LeaveTheRoundabout... I had fogotten all about the busy Bee thingy

suzanne Of course landlords provide homes for people to live in.

People could, for example, instead buy a string of holiday homes which stay empty for the majority of the year. Depleting the housing stock.

Landlords don't make a produce no. But nor do bus drivers, lawyers, dustmen.

Q: To think saying house prices could crash if we brexit will be a plus for many?

A: Dead cat bounce.

God you are ill informed OP

So, so ill-informed. You are dangerous to the UK and all of us, but not through intelligence just mere ignorance.

The UK national house builders already need to employ, house and integrate foreign workmanship to meet UK targets on affordable housing and housing quality. I know through my profession that if we get an 'Exit' vote we can kiss goodbye to the lost generation through the last 10 years. We can assign them to the dustbin.

I guess you want that? No?

landlords dont build/produce homes, they buy them up and prevent other people who want to be owner occupiers from getting a look in

not as bad as buying up property and leaving it empty but that doesnt mean it's not detrimental to the housing market

landlords dont build/produce homes, they buy them up and prevent other people who want to be owner occupiers from getting a look in

I have never worked that one out. Developers maybe, but BTL LLs don't drive prices up, nor do they buy the cheapest, tattiest properties, thus depriving those with hopes of a doer upper. They aim for ready to go houses, usually selling/buying at market prices. And they don't usually have endlessly, deep pockets. so won't outbid anyone.

Maybe if you made that distinction your objection might make more sense.

Landlords maintain property so that other people can rent it.

For a variety of reasons, many people don't want to be owner occupiers.

Some people will never be owner occupiers because in order to be an owner occupier you need to be able to get a mortgage. Essentially you are taking out a large loan on the basis that you can guarantee that you can make repayments over a number of years. Many people will never be in a position to do this.

Currently there is a shortage of affordable properties in locations where people want to live (i.e. near work). However, there will always be a need for rental accommodation.

BTL LLs don't drive prices up
oh really? I wonder why the BOE wants to clamp down on BTL lending
www.theguardian.com/business/2016/mar/29/bank-of-england-set-clampdown-buy-to-let-mortgage-report

suzanne you are very blinkered. Where do you think uni students sharing flats get their homes from? Or new workers who want to leave home fur the first time and share with mates? Or families moving to a new area who want to rent and find out about the area before committing to buy? Or people from abroad who want to rent for a year or so before going home?

Who provides those products (flats/houses)?

Oh yes landlords.

Huge house price inflation only suits a btl landlord (talking highly leveraged sort not the ones that own outright etc).

The repayment vehicle btl intend to pay their interest only mortgages off with is that very price inflation they are so keen to talk up ie keep fingers crossed that enough numpties keep outbidding one another at the bottom of the market which feeds upwards.

Unlike owner occupiers who have to pay off every single penny that they borrow.

Not sure why owner occupiers think house price inflation is a good thing, it just makes the next step on the ladder 50,000 away instead of 20,000 ie you have to borrow and pay off every single penny.

The btl inflation brigade talking the market up constantly (including the estate agents and media, who are usually heavily into btl) don't want you to realise this as they need that very price inflation to pay off their interest only loan some tenant is currently servicing.

An owner occupier craving house price inflation hasn't thought too far into the future. When their children want to get a place of their own, maybe they'll notice this mirage of ever increasing prices beyond wages doesn't suit owner occupiers.

Anyway yesterday Bank of England announced intention to withdraw ability to remortgage one property to put deposit down on another btl (ie how they all get started and grow etc) so there will be fewer and fewer available btl to take properties off the btl at these bubble prices.

Landlord doesn't provide a home , they outbid owner occupiers by using interest only loans they don't intend to pay off and offer a tenant the privilege of serving that interest only debt for them. Oh that was until all the intended changes take hold.

Buyer beware currently, if buying anything that is advertised as a great investment opportunity think again and do your research as lots of buy to letters are trying to off load.

That report is not saying that landlords are driving up house prices.

It is saying that banks do not sufficiently protect against risks when they lend to landlords, therefore if there is a property crash the banks will have a lot of bad debt.

Even if the article were saying that landlords were drive up property prices, there would still be a need for landlords and rental property. A lack of rental property would just mean that many people had nowhere to live at all.

Landlord doesn't provide a home , they outbid owner occupiers by using interest only loans they don't intend to pay off and offer a tenant the privilege of serving that interest only debt for them
at last another voice of reason!
(I'm not suggesting that there is no need at all for rental accommodation)

Regarding property bee, haven't got it to work on my iPad only on a desktop. But very useful. As is searching sold prices rather than assuming someone down the road got the daft price they were asking. Yes over last few years lots were paying over the odds, bit last six months you will see much lower offers were accepted.

But you start to get hang of estate agent tricks using property bee.

I've noticed often that properties that come on as sold stc have often sold a year previously etc. happened with my home even - rang estate agent to ask why I'd noticed my house appear on rightmove and was told don't worry it's a glitch.

Sometimes you see a clutch of properties come on from one agent all sold . What they're doing is known in the business as "relisting" ie an old property from their books that sold or they are relisting so the "date added" doesn't show property been on market for six months and looks like it's been on a week. Creating a sense of urgency is the modus operandi. Now that btl are going to be scarcer on ground it pays to know this, unless you like bidding prices up rather than down.

I think watchdog are looking into this particular issue of relisting and I have reported some local instances myself to right move. Also contacted a local agent to say I may report them to watchdog if I continue seeing them adding new dates so property looks "fresher".

Merry mouse, do a rightmove search for holloway, Clapham etc and have a look at this "shortage". Lots of unsold flats being reduced in price. I think you'll find as prices go down lots of those people will be able to afford a mortgage after all. It's only when competing with interest only btl brigade that they can't compete.

The sums won't work out anymore for heavy leveraged btl, just as they don't currently for first time buyers. Things are changing, lot more than most realise yet.

I think you'll find as prices go down lots of those people will be able to afford a mortgage after all.

No. There are many people who cannot get a mortgage - the newly self employed, people who cannot work because of some kind of incapacity, people on very low wages, people who have no job security, people who have a bad credit history. This has always been the case. There has never been a situation where everyone has been able to buy their own house.

Banks do not lend vast amounts of money without some reasonable expectation that the loan will be repaid. (Or, rather, sometimes they do, but not if they are doing their job properly).

I'm not sure why people conflate a landlord with a btl investor really.

Seems to being an ongoing problem with someone saying they object to speculative highly leveraged borrowing bidding up house prices to a landlord that has a business brain.

Surely you can spot the difference.

Someone actually running a business can recognise when something is over priced and stays well clear for a start.

Yes some parts of society require rental, but not nearly as much as there is currently. Hence reason government is taking away tax perk of being able to deduct interest amongst the many other disincentives heading their way.

We are all clear on what parts of society generally require rental, but I'm afraid the "poor" people you claim can never get a mortgage - well 25 years ago those little 2up 2 down used to cost around the price of a new car.

Maybe expensive for a factory worker but house prices generally reflected local people's wages.

Have you ever asked why such large deposits have been required recently? It is to cover any negative equity that may incur if prices drop - ie prices are unsustainable.

When prices become more realistic then deposits won't be required to be so huge for first time buyers again. Currently lots of people are paying off someone else's mortgage. That loan doesn't get any smaller, unlike a home owner who after paying off money every month for twenty years is getting nearer to owning it outright with a smaller mortgage. No one chooses to rent forever, but lots are in position of believing that is their future.

The younger generation trying to get on to ladder find those older pulled up ladder behind them and kept their first flat remortgaged it and are asking them to pay it off for them.

People keeping property and holding on to it was becoming daft, I'm glad for my children's sake that this government is tacking the issue and level playing field for those leaving university with debt and no future home a real possibility, just a string of assured short hold tenancies to enjoy whilst paying off that university debt.

Its weird how many people have a disconnect over this issue, do you not know any 20 somethings and what the future looks like for them?

Suzanne I don't think the BOE want to stop btl landlords, they are just making sure the treasury get a slice of the pie. Oh yes and reducing risk.

I could buy a house tomorrow and rent it out for more than the mortgage repayments, I wouldn't need to wait for capital gain to clear an interest only mortgage. I would need a good deposit or to use my own house as surety.

I lived in lots of house shares and paid landlords, I lived in houses and areas I couldn't have afforded otherwise and I didn't resent paying my rent.

Most of the investors that got into btl in last few years - none of the sums add up for them, but as they are not business people they don't mind as they are just waiting for that price inflation - so they just kept outbidding one another. They have created a huge bubble which has spilled out from London into southeast generally. Now it's reverse happening and South East to catch up with London deflating. Look at flats in London going down in price.

The government want to encourage investors to invest elsewhere and not overheat housing market. They want professional landlords that provide a service and can pay all taxes due etc to provide themselves with an income and not be chasing inflation like the "investors - highly leveraged btl "do.

Government don't want investor style btl continuing to remortgage their btl to "release equity" and giving themselves untaxed income from those btl properties - they want the tax due from all that remortgaging on their btl properties.

See what I mean? There will be loads tripped up by that even, as they didn't realise remortgaging their btl and spending that money would impact on taxes - it isn't the same as remortgaging your own home. HMRC will be making that clear to them.

Btl investor and business landlord are different. One will understand all tax for instance, the other is about to get severely surprised - not just by the changes in 2017 but the remortgaging issue that some have been "enjoying" for 20 years.

There is no intrinsic difference between somebody who owns property to let and somebody who owns property to let. You might think that you can easily divide landlords into those who have curly moustaches and evil laughs and those who are salt of the earth types, but a landlord is just somebody who rents out property.

I bought my first flat almost 20 years ago and it cost an awful lot more than a new car, then or now. Prices might fall slightly, but not to a level that will make them affordable for a good chunk of the population, atleast in areas where there are jobs. For that to happen there would have to be a major economic crash, which as others have said would result in far wider economic upheaval, which would also result in many people not being able to buy houses.

Property prices in Clapham certainly aren't about to nosedive because of a bit of a little bit of cosmetic tinkering with landlord's tax.

Post above when I say "price of a new car" I mean for someone in an expensive area they would see the house as cheap. For factory worker in that area it fitted their ability to obtain a mortgage.

Nowadays you get btl outbidding one another and driving price up to charge rent to the factory worker who can't access their local market as its saturated by investors doing the same.

People used to house share with a mate who had bought s home and rent out rooms etc. bit cheaper while saving up for their own deposit etc.

We really did get by without all these property investors everywhere.

Places to rent were always available too, in fact could be empty.

When landlords sell the property will be bought by an owner occupiers - not disappear. One fewer person renting and one fewer property available to rent.

Same as it was before except the renter now has a home and not a six month tenancy agreement.

Perhaps do a property bee search then on flats in Clapham. Start at bottom obviously as that's where this fall will start from. Prices being reduced by exiting landlords of first time style properties.

No curly moustaches required - business brains or piling into a bubble because everyone else is doing it. There is your distinction and no "evil" required at all. Numpties probably fits better.

Same as it was before except the renter now has a home and not a six month tenancy agreement
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But it won't be the same person who leaves the rented house and buys one. The OP for example can't buy a house (unemployed) so s/he will be forced to move and find a new deposit/ pay fees, removal costs etc. The OP would be worse off.

I take it you're not a whizz on tax issues then if you've digested all the documents from BoE yesterday and understood it to be "tinkering".

Have you listened to treasury committee with Osborne last week askimg if anything will be changed when the bubble does deflate. No is the answer as they said wish to level playing field from btl to first timers.

The ability to remortgage to provide equity to outbid the first timers has been made impossible by sums. Takes quite a bit of working out to find the details etc but when people look to remortgage their btl from summer onwards lots will find they are on standard variable as won't fit criteria. Withdrawing equity is made impossible in the affordability tests etc going forward. So over next few years the pool of btl arriving to take properties off people's hands will be dwindling/disappear.

You do realise prices aren't set by those hanging on to their property, they are set by the ones actually selling?

So if btl in your street are forced to sell due to being unable to cover increased mortgage terms coming their way over next few years then they set the "going rate" for that type of property in that street.

When it comes to remortgaging the surveyor will value your property on what has sold locally. So I'm afraid it doesn't matter if you don't believe prices are going down - fact is in London currently btl are reducing their property for sale by £50,000 in space of few months. They are setting new prices, not the people not selling because they believe their property is worth more.