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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to ask if I'm alone in sensing that the election results will confound the pollsters??

253 replies

grovel · 07/05/2015 18:33

It's just a gut feeling that the nation(s) won't vote as predicted.

OP posts:
OneNight · 07/05/2015 21:49

I'm afraid that it's not like that LateNightFury. If Cameron and Crosby et all lose out to a Labour/SNP pact they then neatly avoid the coming debacle over Europe and would probably get in again in a relatively short while with enough excuses at their back to fuel an artic. It wouldn't be fun for them but neither do I think they'd be crying in their beer.

flippinada · 07/05/2015 21:56

I appreciate there is always the 'shy voter' factor to take into account. but I think the SNP will do well for several reasons.

  • The Nicola Sturgeon effect. Regardless of your views on her politics, you can't deny she is a popular politican. People seem to actually like her. That's very, very rare in politics (and yes, I know she is an MSP, not an MP so won't be at Westminster but she is very much the 'face' of the SNP).
  • The SNP have always had significant support in Scotland - in the referendum, a lot of no voters were also SNP voters. People like that they are (broadly) left of centre.
  • Labour just don't have the popular support up in Scotland that they used to and that leaves a vacuum for a left of centre party
  • There are a distinct lack of Labour 'heavyweights' up here now, especially since Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling are standing down.
  • Last but definitely not least (IMO anyway) - Alex Salmond has been keeping his gob shut!
Bunnyjo · 07/05/2015 21:59
  • Last but definitely not least (IMO anyway) - Alex Salmond has been keeping his gob shut!

Haha, I've just snorted with laughter at that classy one, I am!

OneNight · 07/05/2015 22:02

The party are happy that Nicola Sturgeon should take centre stage on this one. (And for those that aren't too sure about being governed by a woman and there are still a good few there is always the thought that Salmond is in the background as a guiding influence.)

Bunnyjo · 07/05/2015 22:02

Fucking hell, BBC Exit poll has Conservatives at 316, Labour at 239, SNP at 58, Lib Dem at 10 and UKIP at 2!

flippinada · 07/05/2015 22:03

Bunnyjo I can't really take the credit for that, squoosh pointed it out earlier Grin

AWholeLottaNosy · 07/05/2015 22:03

According to exit polls there will be a hung parliament with the Conservatives in the lead. Game over then. :(

DrHarleenFrancesQuinzel · 07/05/2015 22:03

Solomon and Harry I live in Rural North Yorkshire (2 miles away from Co. Durham) so north. This is one of the safest conservative seat in the country. In 2010 it had the 3rd largest win of any party in the UK and the largest win for the conservatives (23,336 more votes than 2nd place labour). Most people have blue posters (apart from one very large UKIP poster)

Although we did have William Hague since 1989 and now he's stepped down I suspect it will be less of a majority, but still a large majority.

peltata · 07/05/2015 22:03

Exit polls currently on bbc 1 quite extraordinary prediction figures coming out: conservatives gain 316 seats labour 239 SNP takes 58 seats UKIP 2 LD 10

flippinada · 07/05/2015 22:04

Yeah, I just saw that. Another five years then.

PeppaPlug · 07/05/2015 22:04

I reckon UKIP will get zero seats. Even my xenophobic sister bottled out of voting for them.

squoosh · 07/05/2015 22:04

The exit poll is worrying.

peltata · 07/05/2015 22:04

The politician models used by BBC are eerie

Thereyouarepeter · 07/05/2015 22:05

That's it then! Labour party have been obliterated. Another 5 years of the tories.

HarryLimeFoxtrot · 07/05/2015 22:05

Skipton & Ripon is my parents constituency - the Tory candidate got over 50% of the votes in 2010.

Bodyinpyjamas10 · 07/05/2015 22:06

Not suprised. It's early days but think people just feel they need stability. Be that right or wrong.

What did for labour( if it's right) is the popularity of Nicola sturgeon. And personally I think she's great but shame she's a scot. Wink we could do with her in England.

Bodyinpyjamas10 · 07/05/2015 22:08

Nick Clegg will have to resign.

OddBoots · 07/05/2015 22:09

Looks like we're all fucked then. Bollocks.

peltata · 07/05/2015 22:09

Labour must be really kicking themselves allowing Scottish devolution

Bodyinpyjamas10 · 07/05/2015 22:09

And maybe Ed?

TheRealMaryMillington · 07/05/2015 22:11

I feel sick

Bodyinpyjamas10 · 07/05/2015 22:11

Tell you this if Nicola had been heading the snp at the election Scotland would be already gone.

Class act that woman.

peltata · 07/05/2015 22:12

And choosing EM over DM

Sickoffrozen · 07/05/2015 22:12

Looks like the I'm alright jack and we don't give a fuck about anyone else brigade will be in again. Clegg a goner and please god hopefully the useless and unelectable ed milliband a goner. If they had elected his brother, this would have had a different result.

DrHarleenFrancesQuinzel · 07/05/2015 22:12

Who do they poll on these exit polls? Nobody asked me.