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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

to ask if I'm alone in sensing that the election results will confound the pollsters??

253 replies

grovel · 07/05/2015 18:33

It's just a gut feeling that the nation(s) won't vote as predicted.

OP posts:
Oswin · 07/05/2015 19:39

I have been massively shocked today by the amount of people in my age range voting. 18-25. Last election there wasn't a mention of voting on facebook or even when I was talking to people.
I thought this election would go the same way because I've barley seen a mention of the election till today! This time round nearly everyone I know has voted.
If its like this countrywide then I think the results could well shock us all.

rallytog1 · 07/05/2015 19:39

I suspect a lot of Scots will choose to go with Labour rather than SNP at the last minute. I also think England might go more Tory than the polls are suggesting. The two would effectively cancel each other out of course Grin

ilovesooty · 07/05/2015 19:40

I'm a Labour voter and I think sadly that the Conservatives will do better than predicted. I think a lot of the projected ukip vote will swing back to them.
I think over the weekend the papers will be full of "Labour chose the wrong Miliband brother" which I think is utter bollocks.

I'm in Greece 2 hours ahead of UK time. I'm getting very gently sozzled - just enough to drop off for a few hours and get up to follow the results about 5am local time.

Thanks to some kind and helpful posters on Chat I might be able to access bbc coverage.

teeththief · 07/05/2015 19:40

There are a scary number of ukip posters up where I live. We've always had a Tory MP but I think he may be booted this time. I just hope it's not by ukip. I think whoever said ukip will only get one seat max is in for a shock unfortunately

ihavenonameonhere · 07/05/2015 19:44

All the UKIP people I have met are former Labour voters around here (midlands) rather than former Tory voters

StatisticallyChallenged · 07/05/2015 19:45

Strangely the polling stations around here seem to be pretty quiet - DH has been to two and my mum a different one again and all were dead.

Re undecideds - there seem to be different schools of though re whether they break for the incumbent or the challenger. Lots of the research is US based though which might influence how applicable it is here. And this election is a bit stranger than usual - so so unclear and with coalitions or minorities looking almost a certainty which might make for more tactical voting, or at least decisions which aren't as straight forward as normal IYSWIM?

SomewhereIBelong · 07/05/2015 19:51

my predictions
I think the tories will do better than expected, gaining quite a few marginals - esp from lib dems

snp could have all but the highlands/islands seat in Scotland

ukip will be a flash in the pan

Petallic · 07/05/2015 19:51

I'm surprised at so many booth deciders - can I ask if the booth deciders were wavering between parties with similar policies or were you totally undecided before your booth decision?

ihategeorgeosborne · 07/05/2015 19:55

I also think UKIP will do much better than everyone expects. I suspect people don't admit voting for them in public. I think Labour will do worse than expected, as people might worry they will form a coalition with the SNP. This is what I've heard from some people anyway.

ChaiseLounger · 07/05/2015 19:57

I struggled to vote. I have no idea what will happen. I suspect ukip may do better than we think. I think Tory might just sneak it. I have no idea why I think that.

shouldkeepquiet · 07/05/2015 19:59

I am in a Liberal seat at the moment and they are going to loose this one - almost certainly to the Tories. I knew the people at the polling station and was told that turn out was unbelievably high, we had to queue for 15 min.

TalkinPeace · 07/05/2015 20:03

The SNP thing will be interesting because of course Nicola Sturgeon is not standing for Westminster.
The man who will lead the SNP at Westminster : Alec Salmond - has been conspicuously absent from our screens.

Greens : will do much better at local than national because of Natalie Bennett

Libdems : I suspect their bloodbath will be nothing like as bad as people expect

UKIP : I suspect they will be like the Greens - lots of hot air at national and an utter pita at local

Tories / Labour : neck and neck in both seats and share so will HAVE to deal with other parties

Turnout will be VERY high
spoilt ballots will be the big story
as will be the pressure for electoral reform

HarryLimeFoxtrot · 07/05/2015 20:04

It was busier than I've ever seen it at my polling station too. People were queuing to get their ballot papers, and then queuing again for a booth (4 ballot papers here - parliament, mayor, council and council tax referendum - not all using the same voting system).

I'm considering an early night and then getting up at around 03:30 to see how things are going.

ilovesooty · 07/05/2015 20:05

I voted by post prior to flying out here last Saturday but my friends at home are reporting queuing to vote.

Viviennemary · 07/05/2015 20:08

I think the Greens will do worse or no better than expected. I don't think Labour will do better than expected and quite possibly worse. LD hard to call but some folk might opt for them if they don't like any of the others. UKIP I think will do better than expected or at least as well. In other words who knows! Labour won't do outstandingly well I don't think but Tories might.

NapoleonsNose · 07/05/2015 20:09

I voted at 5pm ish and the polling station was really quiet - three or four people already in there and no queue. May have been busier earlier though. Hoping for a LibDem win here to keep the Tories out. Think it will be a close call though.

Tiredemma · 07/05/2015 20:12

5.45pm my polling station was heaving

ClashCityRocker · 07/05/2015 20:16

Good to see a lot of people at my polling station - and lots of I voted buttons on FB. Hopefully it means more people are engaging in politics.

Purely anecdotally, everyone I know seems to be voting Tory or lib dems. I think lib dems will do better than expected, as there's a lot of people who dislike the conservatives cuts but don't trust labour.

worksallhours · 07/05/2015 20:20

You are not alone, grovel.

I suspect UKIP will take a lot of formerly Labour core votes. It might not be enough to deliver seats, but it will be enough to scare the bejeezus out of the traditional three. The UKIP PPC in my constituency is basically someone who would have stood for Labour back in the 70s. As soon as I read his biography, I knew his background would chime with a lot of old Labour voters in my area -- he's Northern industrial working class through and through.

I think the Lib Dems might do slightly better than the wipeout that has been predicted. I have been surprised by how many people actually like the Tory/LibDem coalition, particularly local male gay couples -- and I can see why because, ime, older gay men do tend to be quite fiscally conservative and very socially liberal, and they have that package with the coalition.

I think the SNP will do extremely well, but Labour may retain more Scottish seats than has been predicted.

I think the Tories may lose numbers but still keep seats.

But I have no idea what will happen with the overall Labour vote. They are being chomped from all angles: UKIP, SNP, Green, Plaid, Respect and those regionalist parties that have popped up from nowhere, which remind me of No2EU and appear to be headed by former Labour activists.

It's all very interesting. Smile

JoanHickson · 07/05/2015 20:23

I hated telling our Labour MP candidate about my fears she lost votes to ukip. It's a shame as she had a good chance of winning in our marginal. The ukip swing will keep the seat Tory.

JoanHickson · 07/05/2015 20:24

I waa a teller and was on the phones for our Labour MP candidate so she told my fears seriously.

FairyPenguin · 07/05/2015 20:27

I did a postal vote last week, but I know the polling stations have been very busy here, queuing for an hour earlier this evening.

I think UKIP will unfortunately get a lot more votes than people think. Like a PP said, I think people don't want to admit they're voting for them. Similar for Tories.

I've seen and heard quite a few people say they did the voteforpolicies survey and got UKIP. Even I did which surprised me, but the way that survey is structured isn't very good. However I can believe that, with that link being shared a lot on social media, there will be some people who will have done that survey and voted for whoever came top. Particularly those who may not otherwise have voted as they felt they couldn't make a considered decision.

I could be wrong but...

Bunnyjo · 07/05/2015 20:28

I think Conservatives will do better than predicted, Labour might not lose as much to SNP as predicted, but will not gain as much in the rest of the UK as is being forecast. I expect Lib Dems will lose quite a few seats, with the two larger parties benefitting equally, but it won't be quite the bloodbath everyone is expecting.

I think UKIP will get a very small number of seats, but I don't think they'll do as well as the media would have us believe.

EmberRose · 07/05/2015 20:28

My facebook is full of anti-Tory statements, but then I work in education, so I am not surprised. I looked at my local election results and despite being a conservative area since 1957, ukip were 100 votes off winning several areas in my constituency in the 2012 elections.

squoosh · 07/05/2015 20:30

What has Nate Silver predicted?